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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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11 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Canadian brings a mix into Southern tier but looks like a solid storm

Yeah just for a short time in the central southern tier. The 12z gfs did as well but both are mainly snow and around 6 along the PA border.

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I don't like that jut north on the Canadian. Looks too close to what the Euro had been showing the past few days. The GFS moved the low slightly north and look how much more mixing gets into Southern NY. It just seems if mixing makes it any past the border, it FLOODS in the whole way to the Lake Plain. The GFS had room for northward movement. The rest don't.

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35 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I don't like that jut north on the Canadian. Looks too close to what the Euro had been showing the past few days. The GFS moved the low slightly north and look how much more mixing gets into Southern NY. It just seems if mixing makes it any past the border, it FLOODS in the whole way to the Lake Plain. The GFS had room for northward movement. The rest don't.

12z Geps and Gefs shifted a little north but not a lot. Still solid from the northern tier of PA north. I wouldnt worry about north central NY too much. The thruway corridor might be the jackpot for this one.

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-neng-snow_ge_3-5887600.thumb.png.eb919704cb38c1e3b37dd4f0f4b723a6.pngcmc-ensemble-all-avg-neng-snow_ge_6-5887600.thumb.png.effece914c0a24787a6c4eea71111a66.png

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-neng-snow_ge_3-5876800.thumb.png.7f1d7e13e1904d9bfb43b13b2392c0bf.pnggfs-ensemble-all-avg-neng-snow_ge_6-5876800.thumb.png.e920dabeb229947bdf1db9805699544a.png

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Morning disco

A storm system will track northeast from the Tennessee Valley to New
England from Thursday night through Friday night. As this system
tracks northeast, a secondary coastal low will develop near the
NY/NJ coast. The initial storm tracking inland, depending on model
guidance is generally somewhere between Buffalo and NYC. While most
of the guidance has gone with the eastward trend, making snow more
likely for the area, the rest of the guidance has also gone a bit
more eastward, resulting in some of the better precip amounts more
east of the WNY area. If the storm track does stay on this eastward
trend, precip., mostly in the form of snow should be light, but
steady for far WNY. Snow amounts would increase to the east, before
mixing with rain/sleet/freezing rain, depending on storm track and
any warmer layers within the storm. Currently the best chance for
precip., regardless of type, looks like from late Thursday night
into Friday evening.

Behind the passing system for Thursday into late Friday, cold air
advection will lower 850H temps to around -20C, prompting some lake
enhanced first right behind the storm, and then lake effect. Lake
effect behind the passing storm looks limited as of now, as
conditions will be lacking for some better development off the
lakes.
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4 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

12z Geps shifted a little north but not a lot. Still solid from the northern tier of PA north. I wouldnt worry about north central NY too much. The thruway corridor might be the jackpot for this one.

cmc-ensemble-all-avg-neng-snow_ge_3-5887600.thumb.png.eb919704cb38c1e3b37dd4f0f4b723a6.pngcmc-ensemble-all-avg-neng-snow_ge_6-5887600.thumb.png.effece914c0a24787a6c4eea71111a66.png

Thanks. After being burned so many times, it's hard to NOT look for "what could go wrong."

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1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

I really like the chance for enhancement with this storm. Long duration of ENE winds. Something to watch for. image.thumb.png.78740ac870c16ff915b6d34d51ac5ae0.png

Which if you look at the LR globals they all show the Niagara Frontier with the least amount of QPF…this SHOULD  be the exact  opposite with those wind trajectories 

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