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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

It really amazes me the amount of elevation so close to the lake shore lol

Screenshot_20220223-113917.png

Even more pronounced here in Marquette County.  I'm a little over 1600' here and only 7 miles from the lake. The prevailing winds favor the Keweenaw most of the time tho.

The brightest white is 1800-1900 feet.

908731640_thumbnail(3).jpg.fdca250ac752aef36ccaa1e7e04b397a.jpg

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4 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Yeah what the heck… I know I haven’t been staying close past few days but this band surprised me for sure…. Oh well lay down some extra fluff for that squall line to blow around tomorrow…

Already couple inches of fluff here. Got 1" in 15 minutes and still heavy snow here. 

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1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Already couple inches of fluff here. Got 1" in 15 minutes and still heavy snow here. 

Our late season surprise event today today maybe?  Mesos showed nothing off Erie today.  Re read the AFD from this morning (4am) and there was no talk of any activity off Erie.  See how long this lasts…

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Just now, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Our late season surprise event today today maybe?  Mesos showed nothing off Erie today.  Re read the AFD from this morning (4am) and there was no talk of any activity off Erie.  See how long this lasts…

Been so busy following the war that I haven't really looked at anything. I think there is a chance of some lake enhanced stuff ahead of arctic front tomorrow. 

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6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Been so busy following the war that I haven't really looked at anything. I think there is a chance of some lake enhanced stuff ahead of arctic front tomorrow. 

Same.  Gave it a glance this morning but had nothing at all mentioned for today around BUF.  Tomorrow could be interesting noonish - 5pm window if that squall can swing through.  
 

Those clouds rolling in right now look mean!

 

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7 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Every time we start making headway toward Buffalo in even the littlest bit here in CNY, you Buffalo guys are like, "Oh, look! We got 5 inches in an hour!" 

Besides the tug and surrounding towns, areas east of Lake Erie experiences the highest snowfall rates anywhere east of the Rockies on average. 

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6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That band is getting it’s act together. Did no model have it? Must be a reason buf is forecasting those amounts? 

300AA8A8-CDED-4FED-A965-2E30B18AE250.png

Nope and I think all the models are overdoing the ice coverage on Lake Erie. What ice there is isn’t even solid and can still transport moisture through it. I had a job yesterday in Angola right on the lake in a 3 story house on top of a dune and could see out into the lake pretty far when it wasn’t snowing and there’s tons of open water as far as I could see past the first mile or so out which was ice but could still see slush and open pockets of water in that. 

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2 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Nope and I think all the models are overdoing the ice coverage on Lake Erie. What ice there is isn’t even solid and can still transport moisture through it. I had a job yesterday in Angola right on the lake in a 3 story house on top of a dune and could see out into the lake pretty far when it wasn’t snowing and there’s tons of open water as far as I could see past the first mile or so out which was ice but could still see slush and open pockets of water in that. 

Agreed. Every satellite pic of Lake Erie have shown great open areas on the East end and slush ice in the central basin. Snowing moderately here now as well and this could surprise.

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5 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Nope and I think all the models are overdoing the ice coverage on Lake Erie. What ice there is isn’t even solid and can still transport moisture through it. I had a job yesterday in Angola right on the lake in a 3 story house on top of a dune and could see out into the lake pretty far when it wasn’t snowing and there’s tons of open water as far as I could see past the first mile or so out which was ice but could still see slush and open pockets of water in that. 

Wow that’s a lot of open water. This is last good pic I could find from 2 days ago. 

532A23A8-751F-4E36-9C4B-724AE6C56510.jpeg

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