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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?


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8 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

I have to agree for the most part, although I wouldn't want to experience a tornado - I'm a much bigger fan of winter severe weather as opposed to summer severe.

Extremes are the way to go though. Ideally, I like at least one 12" snowfall per year, one "zero day" per winter, and one 95 degree day in the summer. I couldn't handle living in a place like Seattle or Vancouver. Not enough variance in the weather, and I really dislike cold rain in the winter.

That’s the same as San Diego, phoenix ir even Miami. Having the “seasons” we enjoy bring variability and excitement. Living in one of those areas would be akin to living in Syracuse or some desolate, snowless area…

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11 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

I have to agree for the most part, although I wouldn't want to experience a tornado - I'm a much bigger fan of winter severe weather as opposed to summer severe.

Extremes are the way to go though. Ideally, I like at least one 12" snowfall per year, one "zero day" per winter, and one 95 degree day in the summer. I couldn't handle living in a place like Seattle or Vancouver. Not enough variance in the weather, and I really dislike cold rain in the winter.

You are in for a treat! Gonna be some flooding at this rate. I can’t imagine there’s less than 3” in the Rochester snow pack. 

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31 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

1976-1977 was the worst winter in Buffalos history with 200" of snow recorded at the airport, with much more south of the city. It also had the blizzard of 1977 which gave the city its name. 

1976-77 0 0 0 0.2 31.3 60.7 68.3 22.7 13.5 2.2 0.5 0 199.4

Living in Little Falls at the time I could pick up WKBW AM at night   I remember listening to their storm coverage for several days. The whole city of  Buffalo was basically shut down and eventually the National Guard was called in to assist in snow removal. The air mass that caused the blizzard was preceded by a cold front. In that winter temperatures around freezing were considered warm and that morning Little Falls was around freezing while Buffalo on the other side of the front was already in the single digits. Little Falls received close to a half a foot of snow just with the frontal passage. It was an amazing winter and an amazing storm. 

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14 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

All the models locked in with storm just across the border. EURO is still the closest (other than Ukmet). IDK. Wouldn’t take a ton to move it 50 miles. Not counting on it though. image.thumb.png.ed2f2e6245fbeea4cac1511c9601a460.png

Not to be a Debbie Downer, but the actually snow boundary usually ends up 25-50mi farther NW than the models and forecasts show it.  I have been burned by that a few times this winter.  Even though I “know” what’s going to happen, I still get my hopes up enough to be disappointed.  Not trying to be negative, just trying to spare you the same disappointment!

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15 minutes ago, winter_rules said:

Not to be a Debbie Downer, but the actually snow boundary usually ends up 25-50mi farther NW than the models and forecasts show it.  I have been burned by that a few times this winter.  Even though I “know” what’s going to happen, I still get my hopes up enough to be disappointed.  Not trying to be negative, just trying to spare you the same disappointment!

Totally agree. This one sailed a couple days ago. I always felt the GFS has a good handle on it. And yeah, I’d bet it moves 25-50 northwest as opposed to SE. 

I’ll still be watching it though. 

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3 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Totally agree. This one sailed a couple days ago. I always felt the GFS has a good handle on it. And yeah, I’d bet it moves 25-50 northwest as opposed to SE. 

I’ll still be watching it though. 

Looks to be a Chicago to Toronto storm. GFS has been locked in for a couple of days. 

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Flood watch issued for WNY..

FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING...

* WHAT...Flooding caused by rain and snowmelt is possible.

* WHERE...A portion of western New York, including the following
  counties, Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Genesee, Livingston,
  Monroe, Niagara, Northern Erie, Orleans, Southern Erie and Wyoming.

* WHEN...From Wednesday evening through Friday evening.

* IMPACTS...Excessive runoff may result in flooding of rivers,
  creeks, streams, and other low-lying and flood-prone locations.
  The greatest threat for flooding will be in ice jam prone areas,
  such as the Buffalo area creeks and near Sunset Bay on Cattaraugus
  creek. Creeks and streams may rise out of their banks. Flooding
  may occur in poor drainage and urban areas.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - Significant warming ahead of a slow warming cold front will
    result in a major melt down of a large portion of the
    extensive snow pack over the region. While this warming will
    begin on Wednesday, melt water is not forecast to reach the
    tributaries until Wednesday evening. A storm system will then
    track out of the Ohio valley late Wednesday night and
    Thursday...reaching our forecast area Thursday evening. This
    system is forecast to generate a half to one and a half
    inches of rain over western New York...most of which will
    come from midday Thursday into Thursday evening. The
    combination of the significant rainfall and extensive snow
    melt will result in at LEAST major rises on area tributaries.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood
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18 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

After an ugly Thursday, Friday could prove to be wintry with lake involvement and re-whiten everything for a couple more days. Then next week is pretty ugly.

Perhaps we can get a few more weeks of winter in March, as there are some indications it could be colder and active.

Too bad that snow on Friday will be falling on bare ground. 

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