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Upstate/Eastern New York-Pattern Change Vs Tughill Curse?

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6 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

I would think it may of been a bit better. The 850s are close to 0z, but the main s/w is slower, imo that would mean more time for cold to push in allowing for a bit more frozen. 

Looking at H5, the confluence looks a bit nw/slower as well though.


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4 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

fwiw, the ggem the last 31 days is 2nd best scoring model behind the euro. Ukmet 3rd and gfs 4th. Doesn't mean anything going forward as past performances don't dictate future ones. Something to note though. 


Interesting considering these seem to waffle more than gfs. But maybe that just means gfs is stubborn when it gets a idea and corrected last min

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Some"modest" lake effect expected tonight into tomorrow..

Tonight, the Lake Ontario lake effect will continue to shift north
with the westerly wind shift. A passing trough, and convergent flow
this evening should strengthen the lake effect along the south shore
of Lake Ontario as winds start to shift out of the south over land,
but continue out of the west to northwest over the lake. Winds over
Lake Ontario will continue to shift more out of the west, and the
lake snows will continue to push north into the late evening,
becoming better organized directly over the lake. Winds will briefly
shift to the west-southwest over Lake Ontario, causing the band to
center over northern Oswego and southern Jefferson County through
around daybreak on Tuesday. Snowfall amounts from NE Wayne County to
Oswego County will generally be in the range of 2 to 5 inches
through daybreak on Tuesday, with any additional confidence today
with snow amounts, a Winter Weather Advisory may be needed for a few
of the counties along the southeast shore of Lake Ontario for
tonight into Tuesday morning. Temperatures tonight will be in the
single digits to low teens south of Lake Ontario, and in the low
single digits to a few degrees below 0 for the North Country.


Lake effect snow will linger east and southeast of Lake Ontario
Tuesday morning. Favoring high res guidance, particularly the RGEM,
in handling this convergence band driven lake effect snow. Expecting
an additional 1-3 inches which will focus near Oswego County before
winds shift to the northwest Tuesday afternoon and push the band
southward. This could bring an inch or so southeast of the lake
Tuesday afternoon before winds diminish and cause the snow to end by
Tuesday evening. Off Lake Erie, expect about an inch focused across
the Boston Hills before snow ends there Tuesday afternoon. Outside
of the lake snows, Tuesday will be a partly to mostly cloudy day
with highs in the 20s
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