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January 2022 Obs/Disco


NorEastermass128
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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man Friday looks awesome to the east. You see that setup and shit, I would have thought it would come closer to the coast. Big deep negative trough etc.

Can we get 150-200 miles in 96 hours? I think that's the best hope.

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2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

The end of that Euro run looked interesting.  Too bad it's in clown range.

Clown range is probably going to look pretty good on a lot of OP runs going forward for the next week because the pattern out in that time range is pretty nice-looking and conductive to larger events.

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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man Friday looks awesome to the east. You see that setup and shit, I would have thought it would come closer to the coast. Big deep negative trough etc.

The reason I gave in my writeup is that just as the N stream energy begins to stream in, that N Stream SW way up over the igloos begins to compress the n edge of the PNA ridge, then the stream interaction stops and it goes out to sea. The ICON yesterday was an example of what happens if that ridging could still protrude up into AK.

JMHO.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The reason I gave in my writeup is that just as the N stream energy begins to stream in, that N Stream SW way up over the igloos begins to compress the n edge of the PNA ridge, then the stream interaction stops and it goes out to sea. The ICON yesterday was an example of what happens if that ridging could still protrude up into AK.

How a Pattern can Potentially be too Active for Major Snows

The ridge on the west coast dictates that the next series of disturbances approaching the east coast will be able to amplify into major storms, however, what makes this a very high stakes pattern is that there is not much space between each one. Thus if anything is "off" with respect to a given system's ability to produce a major snowfall on the east coast, then it may have a ripple effect in that it may only serve to interfere with subsequent storm threats, thereafter.
The first such system is an amplifying ocean storm that will make its closes pass to the region on Friday.
 
AVvXsEiRZU4k7ZprMg8N9VeasxxKby3imkNlkVa_4LHCyII5p_g7tzBPpkytJdqR_QyMWKgJIr6nSRkvGQ-2Fw9yw2Kpj7P2GhK5sVlo7URUPCEDr7AGt71MAGVHh1wz9Lmj9uF3dFs67VN4KzU0JyKMzRIPfra3ztY2-YCfbWxAgz8kOxdW4gDuLGoWphMa=w640-h462

 

The current consensus strongly favors the western ridge not being quite amplified enough for this system to have a major impact on the region. This is in large part due to a northern stream disturbance compressing the northern portion of the ridge just enough to preclude a major strike from this system across region, as noted in the annotation above. However, a less likely scenario is that the ridge manages to protrude further into Alaska downstream from this disturbance.
 
AVvXsEghFzFBGkh14MzHc2PC3so4kENRL9UadJgRjfIL6nZX3bKqD_OCg2-Wqp1NeoYYh8-ctOFL6iO2ztDOCCO9BsRvRvxAxtBaEIyUc7WluY5fRU01jk9KICOhQpdUqy_BgPfusLMAVNviINOnDY7HtrEzTGAdlw1R3qVwTVTCopxlHueJKU2pFN4PFlvh=w640-h466

 

AVvXsEjL40-JSN_PGMJbrNRgYmQjY0IMAkIhB-R-PqpPkiXPXVwUq_tyVHlNOo3p9T_gS0rO9ZQy7ofwDmI3MxrP8n1dWat8N95p7s6-12M8cGXPooatQkp7Jtm-vduUpupK_MY0wN-tShBhJi9sr9v1JvYjVxUlVNTlVkvojnY5FvliG4mv7lydiZ8xuClO=w640-h260

 

 
This would allow the system to amplify slightly more and since its exit would be blocked by a western atlantic ridge to the north, it could retrograde close enough to impact at least the eastern portion of southern New England
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2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Not sure I understand the confidence level in writing off this one...maybe I'm the weenie.

 

qmg7v7O.png

Yeah that is storm #3....that one is different than the weekend threat (1/15-16) that is seemingly DOA. I think that storm #3 for 1/17 (or 1/18 on some guidance) has a legit chance.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I wouldn't write it off, but I would say I have low confidence in that system and on Friday. 

Friday is getting close enough to talk about, but shouldn't "low confidence in a significant system" be the baseline for 5+ days out anyway?

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The ensembles kind of smear the 1/15-16 and 1/17-18 threats together....so it almost looks like the same system on the ensemble mean but when you look at OP runs or individual members they are coming from different shortwaves.

I see, thanks. So maybe put another way, I'm not sure why people are getting so hung up on the immediate shortwave after Friday having to be the one. The OP runs are going to be completely off on the timing at this range anyway.

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2 minutes ago, JC-CT said:

Friday is getting close enough to talk about, but shouldn't "low confidence in a significant system" be the baseline for 5+ days out anyway?

Friday is worth watching...maybe Will can speak more to how much that SW I referenced is sampled right now, and when it may be over a less data sparse domain.

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1 minute ago, JC-CT said:

Friday is getting close enough to talk about, but shouldn't "low confidence in a significant system" be the baseline for 5+ days out anyway?

I misread the date, I thought that was 24 hrs earlier. :) 

Yes it should be. It does sound like some hear low confidence and reasons why it may not work, and assume we are writing it off.

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Here's a quick look at the 144 hour Euro....I marked the failed 1/15-16 threat with the green circle and the 1/17-18 threat is marked with the light blue "X".....they are different shortwaves....the reason I like the 1/17 threat better is kind of obvious on the eye test....it has more room to operate. The 1/15-16 shortwave is getting crunched by what's left of that ocean storm in the maritimes.

 

 

Jan10_!2zEuro144.png

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Friday is worth watching...maybe Will can speak more to how much that SW I referenced is sampled right now, and when it may be over a less sparse domain.

Sure, I think it's a long shot, but at least we have a pretty good sense of what would need to change and the fact that we are even discussing that those level of changes are even possible should be an indication that it could also just as easily (as that) trend faster and more progressive while the next on comes in delayed, and then there you go, the possibility of at least a decent event. Just seems like we shouldn't get ahead of ourselves, that's all.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here's a quick look at the 144 hour Euro....I marked the failed 1/15-16 threat with the green circle and the 1/17-18 threat is marked with the light blue "X".....they are different shortwaves....the reason I like the 1/17 threat better is kind of obvious on the eye test....it has more room to operate. The 1/15-16 shortwave is getting crunched by what's left of that ocean storm in the maritimes.

 

 

Jan10_!2zEuro144.png

You would have to think that the Monday deal not being allowed to gain much latitude would limit how much it could interfere with your follow up deal.

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