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Mid to Long Range Discussion ~ 2022


buckeyefan1
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46 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Euro looks like it's going for glory at 144hr, imo.

Lol that is most likely the heaviest fantasy computer snow I've ever seen. Pretty wild the euro has a similar solution. I figure  I probably have about as much chance for that to happen  as winning the PowerBall.  

 

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2 minutes ago, Lookout said:

Lol that is most likely the heaviest fantasy computer snow I've ever seen. Pretty wild the euro has a similar solution. I figure  I probably have about as much chance for that to happen  as winning the PowerBall.  

 

sharing is caring and winning is giving.... let's reel it in!

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6 minutes ago, Lookout said:

Lol that is most likely the heaviest fantasy computer snow I've ever seen. Pretty wild the euro has a similar solution. I figure  I probably have about as much chance for that to happen  as winning the PowerBall.  

 

CMC,Euro, and gfs are all giving you 18"+.  I'm not sure i've ever seen a long range threat hit on all 3 global models like that. Has to be a great sign that this may have some legs.

(CMC keying on a different wave, but does the same thing with it)

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1 minute ago, burrel2 said:

CMC,Euro, and gfs are all giving you 18"+.  I'm not sure i've ever seen a long range threat hit on all 3 global models like that. Has to be a great sign that this may have some legs.

Are you saying the next 30-40 model runs will exactly match this solution? Does it have ensemble support? 

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2 minutes ago, snowmaker13 said:

Are you saying the next 30-40 model runs will exactly match this solution? Does it have ensemble support? 

No i'm saying the threat may have some legs... as in there may be a winter storm impacting the southeast in some capacity. 

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and there's not much ensemble support. This threat could definitely go poof with the next model cycle.  It's a pretty anomalous set up in general. But all three global models having it is a great sign.  We really need to keep the general look of a the wave dropping down hard enough to spark a gulf low for the next few cycles... if we do. then game on.

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Just now, burrel2 said:

and there's not much ensemble support. This threat could definitely go poof with the next model cycle.  It's a pretty anomalous set up in general. But all three global models having it is a great sign.  We really need to keep the general look of a the wave dropping down hard enough to spark a gulf low for the next few cycles... if we do. then game on.

Hopefully the models stay consistent like the last system. Agreed, there is for sure a storm signal. Exactly if and when is unknown. 

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2 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

698E1B1E-D816-4D89-AD85-A0D92B624B38.thumb.png.14465a9508a8fd21aedf612901fda97d.png

This actually looks pretty good. My biggest worry is the trough dropping down too late and too far to our east.  All the models have been pretty consistent with the mega drop down and bombogenisis, it's just a lot of the early runs were doing it too late and too far east for us.

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Until I see at least a bit of agreement with the ensembles I am not getting the least bit excited about this. There is not *one* Euro ensemble member with amounts over 3", here the vast majority are no snow or less than an inch. Over a foot, it is to laugh.

Screen Shot 2022-01-21 at 3.12.51 PM.png

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Almost all ensemble members support a storm. But the consensus for now is a late bloomer, with the trough off the Atlantic coast. Basically the 18z GFS is roughly the ensemble mean at the moment. Hopefully we can get some positive trends over the weekend.

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18 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Almost all ensemble members support a storm. But the consensus for now is a late bloomer, with the trough off the Atlantic coast. Basically the 18z GFS is roughly the ensemble mean at the moment. Hopefully we can get some positive trends over the weekend.

Any pics per the 18z GFS?

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28 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Almost all ensemble members support a storm. But the consensus for now is a late bloomer, with the trough off the Atlantic coast. Basically the 18z GFS is roughly the ensemble mean at the moment. Hopefully we can get some positive trends over the weekend.

Perfect

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12z NAM is collapsing the boundary layer and dumping snow in North Alabama/GA with the shortwave that passes through Tuesday.  Knew it would show that when we got in range.  Only problem is most globals have trended away from any precip making it in to Northern AL/GA/SC. Sorta hard to believe how quickly they dampen out that wave though after it goes negative tilt back in Texas.

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4 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

12z NAM is collapsing the boundary layer and dumping snow in North Alabama/GA with the shortwave that passes through Tuesday.  Knew it would show that when we got in range.  Only problem is most globals have trended away from any precip making it in to Northern AL/GA/SC. Sorta hard to believe how quickly they dampen out that wave though after it goes negative tilt back in Texas.

2nd run in a row now that has snow with this. Will be interesting to see if the Globals follow.

Screen Shot 2022-01-22 at 9.47.33 AM.png

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