Western PA/Pittsburgh Winter 2021/22 Discussion

[Rd9108]

7 minutes ago, TimB said:

NWS is particularly pessimistic about that chance. They’re carrying a 20% chance of precip.

Every meso model has the squall line. I'm not too worried about it.

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, TimB said:

NWS is particularly pessimistic about that chance. They’re carrying a 20% chance of precip.

You're sounding very KPIT-ish.

[TimB]

11 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

You're sounding very KPIT-ish.

I’m a little down that unless the storm late next week pans out, 2 of the 3 winter months were abysmal, but I still view the MLK storm as a success.

[Ahoff]

22 minutes ago, TimB said:

I’m a little down that unless the storm late next week pans out, 2 of the 3 winter months were abysmal, but I still view the MLK storm as a success.

That's the breaks though.  We've had recent winters with multiple very wintry months.  Sometimes we get stuck in patterns, I guess we're in one now.

[TimB]

2 hours ago, Ahoff said:

That's the breaks though.  We've had recent winters with multiple very wintry months.  Sometimes we get stuck in patterns, I guess we're in one now.

You could argue December and February last year, though February was marginal (most of the snow on the ground for a few weeks was from the last day of January), but that’s the only winter since I moved back here in 2015 that had more than one winter month. You could also make a case for ‘17-18, but that would require you to include March.

[Ahoff]

1 hour ago, TimB said:

You could argue December and February last year, though February was marginal (most of the snow on the ground for a few weeks was from the last day of January), but that’s the only winter since I moved back here in 2015 that had more than one winter month. You could also make a case for ‘17-18, but that would require you to include March.

All months last year really weren't bad.  December was great, January was generally dry but by no means warm...or cold, and February was decent.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Looks like NWS is thinking a squall line and NW flow snow after it passes is possible.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
On Saturday morning, the aforementioned trough and low pressure
system will send an impressive shot of arctic air into the Upper
Ohio Valley. Convection-allowing models (CAMs) suggest snow showers
along the sfc/low-level front interface may be rather impressive.
Low-level instability in a nearly-saturated boundary layer, strong
low-level convergence along the front, and fast 0-2km flow will
likely yield "squally" convective snow showers, capable of producing
a quick light coating of snow, brief low visibility, and gusty wind.

Following the quick-moving front and line of convective snow-
showers, very cold (850mb air between -18 and -20C) northwest flow
across the lakes should induce enough instability and moisture flux
for some snow showers in the area through much of Saturday. Guidance
continues to advertise very little in the way of QPF and snow
accumulation, but thinking this is likely underdone given that Erie
isn`t completely frozen over (Lake Erie must be nearly entirely
frozen over for it not to release much heat+moisture in cold flows
like this). Perhaps the biggest threat to snow accumulation will be
very dry near-surface air, which may cause some snow to sublimate
before reaching the surface. Regardless, have increased POPs and
QPF/snow output from model guidance numbers (which were almost NIL).
Thinking a dusting is possible for much of the lower elevations
while the I-80 corridor and ridges may receive a couple inches.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Snow squall warning for parts of NW PA. Let’s see if anything can hold together down this way.

[PghPirates27]

...A SNOW SQUALL WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 AM EST FORSOUTHEASTERN MERCER...WESTERN VENANGO AND NORTH CENTRAL BUTLER COUNTIES... At 756 AM EST, a dangerous snow squall was located 9 miles southwest of Franklin, moving east at 45 mph. HAZARD...Extremely poor visibility in heavy snow and blowing snow. Wind gusts greater than 30 mph. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Dangerous life-threatening travel. This includes the following highways... Interstate 79 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 115 and 135. Interstate 80 in Pennsylvania between mile markers 9 and 31. Locations impacted include... Hermitage, Grove City, Franklin, Sugarcreek, Mercer, Stoneboro, Harrisville, Polk, Sandy Lake, Fredonia, Cooperstown, and Kennerdell. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Reduce your speed and turn on headlights! During snow squalls, the visibility may suddenly drop to near zero in whiteout conditions. Serious injuries and deaths may result from people exiting their vehicles during a snow squall. Drivers may not be able to see you or to stop! If stopped on the roadway or involved in an accident, quickly exit your vehicle move as far away from the roadway as possible ONLY when it is safe to do so. Do not stand along or near the roadway, since approaching vehicles may be unable to maintain control. &&

[KPITSnow]

Looks like a portion of the squall is going to train right over southern butler county. Hopefully it can drop south a bit more.

 

can’t wait though to have burghblizz tell me to shut up as he sits under whiteout conditions and I get the flurries off the edge of it.

[KPITSnow]

Yeah…really looks like the bulk of this will slide by just north. 

[TheClimateChanger]

Snow squall band looks to be training and setting up more parallel to the flow, rather than perpendicular to the flow. Maybe we can pick up an inch or so.

[KPITSnow]

Just now, TheClimateChanger said:

Snow squall band looks to be training and setting up more parallel to the flow, rather than perpendicular to the flow. Maybe we can pick up an inch or so.

Depends where you are? Cranberry is going to see a quick inch or two. City south might get little to nothing. 

[TheClimateChanger]

Quite squally here now.

 

 

[TheClimateChanger]

[KPITSnow]

I've got some light flurries that aren't doing much of anything. Meanwhile looking at the traffic cameras in Cranberry it is a near whiteout 10 miles north.

[TheClimateChanger]

Surprised there’s no snow squall warning for this. How bad would it have to be to get one?

 

[Rd9108]

1 minute ago, KPITSnow said:

I've got some light flurries that aren't doing much of anything. Meanwhile looking at the traffic cameras in Cranberry it is a near whiteout 10 miles north.

I'm loving your disappointment. I'm at work so it just means less work for me. 

[tim123]

Just now, TheClimateChanger said:

Surprised there’s no snow squall warning for this. How bad would it have to be to get one?

 

This was rochester ny

[CoraopolisWx]

1 minute ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Surprised there’s no snow squall warning for this. How bad would it have to be to get one?

 

No location in sig

[RitualOfTheTrout]

Looks like I’m in between two of the more moderate parallel bands, just flurries and nearly calm winds. 

[TimB]

3 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Surprised there’s no snow squall warning for this. How bad would it have to be to get one?

 

You’re in like Beaver, right? Where there was that nice area of yellow on the radar?

[north pgh]

3 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

I've got some light flurries that aren't doing much of anything. Meanwhile looking at the traffic cameras in Cranberry it is a near whiteout 10 miles north.

You do know that this squall line runs from cranberry to Weirton West Virginia and will drop through all of the county. Of course cranberry will get the snow first. It’s on my doorstep 

[TimB]

That good band looks poised to run through the north hills, I hope.

[Burghblizz]

16 minutes ago, KPITSnow said:

I've got some light flurries that aren't doing much of anything. Meanwhile looking at the traffic cameras in Cranberry it is a near whiteout 10 miles north.

And it’s glorious. 

[TheClimateChanger]

12 minutes ago, TimB said:

You’re in like Beaver, right? Where there was that nice area of yellow on the radar?

Yeah, that was showing up as 40 dbz on radar.

[MikeB_01]

Yeah…really looks like the bulk of this will slide by just north. 

Just relax man. I’m down in the south too. We might not see 35-40dbz but the line is still moving this way. Just be patient. You will see good rates in the next 30 mins or so


.

[north pgh]

White out conditions in ross now. 

[TimB]

Heavy snow in the north hills now.

[RitualOfTheTrout]

There's some solid 30 - 35dbz returns in Allegheny now. 

These lines always seem to split / weaken right before they arrive in my yard, thunderstorm lines the same but holding out hope it holds together.