TimB Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 33 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: this looks familiar g It’s at least mildly interesting, which is more than we can say about anything we’ve had since the last storm that looked like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 1 hour ago, Rd9108 said: this looks familiar g Definitely wouldn't be pushing 70 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ahoff said: Definitely wouldn't be pushing 70 degrees. That’s Friday. If we push well into the 60s, it would be during the first half of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 15, 2022 Share Posted February 15, 2022 19 minutes ago, TimB said: That’s Friday. If we push well into the 60s, it would be during the first half of the week. Yep basically that big warm up early spring that was progged is turning into a brief warm up before a new pattern reloads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Looks like there may be something to track late next week. The GFS, Euro and Canadian all have a low passing to the south. May be a similar setup to the event earlier this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 3 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Looks like there may be something to track late next week. The GFS, Euro and Canadian all have a low passing to the south. May be a similar setup to the event earlier this month. EPO looks to be going negative I wouldn't be surprised if this trends colder as we get closer to the event. The ensembles are all starting to pull back on the big warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 11 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said: Looks like there may be something to track late next week. The GFS, Euro and Canadian all have a low passing to the south. May be a similar setup to the event earlier this month. Now all 3 models ram a cutter either through or just west of the area, which is less than ideal but it’s 9 days out. Canadian has the feature at least 24 hours earlier than the other two. I get the feeling the ensembles are somewhat better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donyewest Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 As much as I love cold weather and snow, I'm pretty ok with this warmup...not all the potential rain though. The ice storm 2 weeks ago put a layer of ice then all that sleet on top of the existing snowpack. The little snow that fell afterward has melted away leaving an impressive crust of ice over everything, every hill has been a luge track for about a week now. At least the dog finally learned to slow down after making a short stack of pancakes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 12z for late next week- Euro: cutter, rainstorm GFS: miss south CMC: modest hit, a couple inches 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 Made it to 57.2 today. Not bad, finally losing some of that ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 PIT is officially at 59, warmest day of 2022 so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 16, 2022 Share Posted February 16, 2022 3 hours ago, TimB said: 12z for late next week- Euro: cutter, rainstorm GFS: miss south CMC: modest hit, a couple inches Wouldn't shock me to see it trend better. The MJO looks like it's not going into phases 4-5-6 like it was going to. Now it's going to be in a weak 3 phase which means that the strong negative EPO will drive the pattern. Just look up into Canada and see how much cold air is available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 2 hours ago, Rd9108 said: Wouldn't shock me to see it trend better. The MJO looks like it's not going into phases 4-5-6 like it was going to. Now it's going to be in a weak 3 phase which means that the strong negative EPO will drive the pattern. Just look up into Canada and see how much cold air is available. We will be 35 and rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ahoff Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 1 hour ago, KPITSnow said: We will be 35 and rain. Ah yes, the all seen has spoken. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 1 hour ago, KPITSnow said: We will be 35 and rain. The last of the MLK bust melted from my yard today. I ordered myself a nice dinner via DoorDash to celebrate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 2 hours ago, KPITSnow said: We will be 35 and rain. yep 35 and rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 39 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: yep 35 and rain If I looked at 200 hour models on a regular basis and took them verbatim I'd have 200 inches a year. This has been such a bad winter, so I will believe it when I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, KPITSnow said: If I looked at 200 hour models on a regular basis and took them verbatim I'd have 200 inches a year. This has been such a bad winter, so I will believe it when I see it. Believe what you want but the pattern is going cold and possible snow again whether you like it or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 8 minutes ago, Rd9108 said: Believe what you want but the pattern is going cold and possible snow again whether you like it or not. I want it to go cold and snowy. Hope you are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 7 hours ago, Rd9108 said: Believe what you want but the pattern is going cold and possible snow again whether you like it or not. Lots of time to iron out the details but it sure is looking like we get a colder pattern mid-next week, but as soon as it’s time for the storm it cuts and we torch, as is typical for Pittsburgh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 10 hours ago, TimB said: The last of the MLK bust melted from my yard today. I ordered myself a nice dinner via DoorDash to celebrate. Gone but unfortunately probably won't ever be forgotten. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 8 hours ago, KPITSnow said: I want it to go cold and snowy. Hope you are right. I'm with you, not buying my ticket yet for the polar express snowapoaloza tour yet. I'd also take anything with the GEFS with a grain of salt in terms of just *how* cold as those have had a cold bias in the medium / long range (GFS too) so if they are the coldest and most extreme vs EPS / GEPS I know which way I'd hedge. I'm not trying to deb on a return to cold, if we are gonna do it then late Feb / early March is still good so lets do it and do it right. I'm comfortable saying by the end of Feb we probably drop below normal again but how that translates to snow nobody knows yet and really by March 1st snow is all that matters. Your not going to get sustained cold and snow cover but a moisture laden over running event or closed bomb would sure be fun. The storm at the end of next week (24th - 25th) looks like our typical slop storm, burst of snow and quick change over to rain / mix while areas east stay snow with CAD and areas North avoid the warm tongue. Certainly plenty of time for changes but anything before that looks like primarily a rain outside of the little clipper / cold front this Saturday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 3 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said: I'm with you, not buying my ticket yet for the polar express snowapoaloza tour yet. I'd also take anything with the GEFS with a grain of salt in terms of just *how* cold as those have had a cold bias in the medium / long range (GFS too) so if they are the coldest and most extreme vs EPS / GEPS I know which way I'd hedge. I'm not trying to deb on a return to cold, if we are gonna do it then late Feb / early March is still good so lets do it and do it right. I'm comfortable saying by the end of Feb we probably drop below normal again but how that translates to snow nobody knows yet and really by March 1st snow is all that matters. Your not going to get sustained cold and snow cover but a moisture laden over running event or closed bomb would sure be fun. The storm at the end of next week (24th - 25th) looks like our typical slop storm, burst of snow and quick change over to rain / mix while areas east stay snow with CAD and areas North avoid the warm tongue. Certainly plenty of time for changes but anything before that looks like primarily a rain outside of the little clipper / cold front this Saturday afternoon. That’s what I’m seeing. Best case we get a front end advisory level thump that melts as soon as it turns to rain and temps blast toward 50ish. Worst case we get 2” of straight rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Pittsburgh snow climo, summed up in one map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Also Pittsburgh interesting weather climo, summed up in one map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 16 minutes ago, TimB said: Pittsburgh snow climo, summed up in one map: But I digress. Canadian is a huge hit, but the evolution is wonky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 1 minute ago, TimB said: But I digress. Canadian is a huge hit. This is what I've been trying to say. I maybe wrong but that HP with the EPO going negative is going to push that cold air south. The question of course comes down to timing. Still a week out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 Just now, Rd9108 said: This is what I've been trying to say. I maybe wrong but that HP with the EPO going negative is going to push that cold air south. The question of course comes down to timing. Still a week out Edited my post above. The evolution of the Canadian is weird, to say the least. Not sure how it plays out that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rd9108 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 2 minutes ago, TimB said: Edited my post above. The evolution of the Canadian is weird, to say the least. Not sure how it plays out that way. Regardless the gfs has trended colder in the past day alone. It actually gives us some backside snow next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PghPirates27 Posted February 17, 2022 Share Posted February 17, 2022 I fixed this map for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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