LVwxHistorian Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 10 hours ago, Birds~69 said: Latest first snow (.1" or more) for a season was the 1994-1995 season in Philly 2/3/95 (1.2") I'm highly confident we can beat it... 58F at 11:50pm You sure about that?! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVwxHistorian Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 2 hours ago, Birds~69 said: Yeah, I missed that. Tons of stats on this sites... https://jcweather.com/100earliestsnow2.php I love 12-19-2009 -- "here's your first snow" , 22.5"!!! Deal with that! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 13 minutes ago, LVwxHistorian said: You sure about that?! 10 minutes ago, LVwxHistorian said: I love 12-19-2009 -- "here's your first snow" , 22.5"!!! Deal with that! LATEST first snow..please read and comprehend. (.1" or more) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVwxHistorian Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 6 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: LATEST first snow..please read and comprehend. (.1 or more) I understand perfectly sir, I'm saying that's a helluva first snow!!! What don't YOU understand? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 2 minutes ago, LVwxHistorian said: I understand perfectly sir, I'm saying that's a helluva first snow!!! What don't YOU understand? I'm replying to your "You sure about that?" reply then you go completely off topic w/the 2009 storm and say "Deal with that!" like you were right... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVwxHistorian Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 34 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: I'm replying to your "You sure about that?" reply then you go completely off topic w/the 2009 storm and say "Deal with that!" like you were right... Sorry I wasn't clear (and neither were you). I was saying that in 2009, people must have been like "man this is our first snow of the season and it's 2 feet!!" I wasn't referring to your comment about beating the record. And when I said are you sure about beating the record, I was wondering how you can see so far into the future when just 0.1 inches is involved! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 GFS is serving up Friday holiday hopium Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 45 minutes ago, LVwxHistorian said: Sorry I wasn't clear (and neither were you). I was saying that in 2009, people must have been like "man this is our first snow of the season and it's 2 feet!!" I wasn't referring to your comment about beating the record. And when I said are you sure about beating the record, I was wondering how you can see so far into the future when just 0.1 inches is involved! C'mon, you have to understand sarcasm w/the way things have been going. I really don't see anything through 12/31. I'm really hoping for a little something in the 1st week of Jan then more chances as we move on but I've been though this song/dance before where the models keep pushing things back and before you know it...it's March! As far as Christmas eve/ Christmas, no snow but at least not a blow torch. Highs 40-45F both days, lows mid 20s to 30F. Just hope it isn't windy Christmas eve when I'll put out those illuminated candles by the curb. If so, the wind will either blow the candles out completely or catch the bag on fire... 54F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 -EPO, west based -NAO means the risk is cold and dry not warm and wet as we head into the latter half of December and into January. -PNA means we eject systems and they squeeze underneath the block. If they aren't potent enough they'll get shredded apart. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 1 hour ago, Newman said: -EPO, west based -NAO means the risk is cold and dry not warm and wet as we head into the latter half of December and into January. -PNA means we eject systems and they squeeze underneath the block. If they aren't potent enough they'll get shredded apart. For those who like snow....I always say bring the cold and the snow shall follow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 GFS doing swell this year so far....here is it's model run for between Christmas and NY Eve morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVwxHistorian Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 39 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: GFS doing swell this year so far....here is it's model run for between Christmas and NY Eve morning 2 storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 46 minutes ago, ChescoWx said: For those who like snow....I always say bring the cold and the snow shall follow.... Thing is cold these days means in the 30s for a high. We would have to get the timing/moisture just right along w/temps or a night snow. Even w/night snow we have to be concerned w/the warm/above average ocean(coastal) blowing in. Can it happen, sure but I'm not holding out hope besides a couple nickel and dime stuff. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 Can't post a GFS joke map without giving the ECM take, which in this case is .10 to 1" Canadian is .5 to 1" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted December 17, 2021 Share Posted December 17, 2021 2 hours ago, LVwxHistorian said: 2 storms? yep not 1 but 2 fantasy storms..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 7 hours ago, ChescoWx said: GFS doing swell this year so far....here is it's model run for between Christmas and NY Eve morning Finally, it's showing clippers riding the boundary across the area warm south and cold north battleground in between like the idea, but the reality is probably weak systems being shredded apart and moving too fast to really dump. Looks like a progressive WNW flow but it's better than a fast WSW flow making slow progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 0z GFS turned into a holiday hot tub 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 ECM sending bbq weather for Christmas and Boxing Day Memorial Day weekend was 50&51 which was 18F below normal in Allentown lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 4 hours ago, RedSky said: ECM sending bbq weather for Christmas and Boxing Day Memorial Day weekend was 50&51 which was 18F below normal in Allentown lol Yeah, instead of low-mid 40s on Eve/Christmas now looks like upper 40s to near 50F. Models will show a blow torch by Tues... Light rain/ 39F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 6 hours ago, RedSky said: ECM sending bbq weather for Christmas and Boxing Day Memorial Day weekend was 50&51 which was 18F below normal in Allentown lol It sucks but we have to be patient NAO and AO look great moving forward on the eps. It sucks to wait but as time goes on , the pattern will become better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: It sucks but we have to be patient NAO and AO look great moving forward on the eps. It sucks to wait but as time goes on , the pattern will become better. Keep the neg NAO / AO looks and we will be given chances with the -PNA and the flat SER. Without the HL blocking we would be looking at 50s/60s regularly and not a chance. So while we may not even cash-in on these windows, it's better than a complete shutout pattern. Likely going to be a patience-testing pattern and in reality when all is said and done, we may get a legit 7-14 day period of winter sandwiched into this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 12 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Keep the neg NAO / AO looks and we will be given chances with the -PNA and the flat SER. Without the HL blocking we would be looking at 50s/60s regularly and not a chance. So while we may not even cash-in on these windows, it's better than a complete shutout pattern. Likely going to be a patience-testing pattern and in reality when all is said and done, we may get a legit 7-14 day period of winter sandwiched into this season. That's just depressing... Cloudy/misty...38F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: It sucks but we have to be patient NAO and AO look great moving forward on the eps. It sucks to wait but as time goes on , the pattern will become better. The MJO (GFS/GEFS) to MJO... Most of the models are showing that hanging in Phase 7 but as soon as it moves to 8 it will be game on. At least Alaska's permafrost in parts of the state, is getting a refresh since it has been decimated by years of above-normal temps there. Currently 39 and overcast, with dp 37 (a far cry from yesterday's low 20s after the cold front passage) and have 0.13" in the bucket from the showers this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Got 0.28 here overnight, more than most recent rain events. That's a little encouraging, been getting a lot of dust doing yard work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted December 18, 2021 Author Share Posted December 18, 2021 Only .10” here, 38F. Don’t know what I enjoy more, digital snow or digital blocks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 2 hours ago, Birds~69 said: That's just depressing... Cloudy/misty...38F My bigger fear is that we get a deep west-based neg NAO and it links up with the SER and forms a mid lat ridge in the East. Need to keep the two ridges from linking up and allow waves to ride across and over the flat se ridge rather than pull a full lat ridge. We shall see....there are signs on the ens that this is a possibility. If the two ridges link up then it is game over/shutout for a period. One thing at a time....lets get the neg NAO established first and foremost. Eta: reason I see this as one of our possible fail scenarios.....neg PNA and tendency for subsequent ridging in the se is the background state so far in this Nina. And we've seen the ridge go full at times...tho mostly transient thus far. See no reason for either feature to fade fast given the current enso phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 Winters in Philly are not great after a zero snow accumulation in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 12 minutes ago, RedSky said: Winters in Philly are not great after a zero snow accumulation in December. Mid feb to early March will rock tho...lock it up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 30 minutes ago, RedSky said: Winters in Philly are not great after a zero snow accumulation in December. Our seasonal average will be dropping in the next decades so when many of us are the average will be 9.2"/yr..... Low clouds/misty 39F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 18, 2021 Share Posted December 18, 2021 22 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Mid feb to early March will rock tho...lock it up. Another mild ho hummer like 2016 with a 36" blizzard on February 9th is fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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