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Friday, November 12, 2021 Severe Potential


weatherwiz
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Yet another late-season severe setup which has become a bit more of a common occurrence the past several years. Strong southerly flow will transport unseasonably moist air into the region with dewpoints potentially climbing into the lower 60's ahead of the cold front. This should contribute to 150-200 J/KG of 3km CAPE...more than sufficient for the potential of strong-to-severe thunderstorms given the degree of wind shear aloft. Damaging winds and even a few tornadoes are possible from late morning through late afternoon across the region. 

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41 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Yet another late-season severe setup which has become a bit more of a common occurrence the past several years. Strong southerly flow will transport unseasonably moist air into the region with dewpoints potentially climbing into the lower 60's ahead of the cold front. This should contribute to 150-200 J/KG of 3km CAPE...more than sufficient for the potential of strong-to-severe thunderstorms given the degree of wind shear aloft. Damaging winds and even a few tornadoes are possible from late morning through late afternoon across the region. 

All equates to :damage:

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Looks like a bust ?

Gotta watch that convective cell south of Long Island...that may head towards New Haven/Branford/Clinton areas over the next 30-45 min. 

Then need to watch the low-topped line as it works through central/eastern CT. It will encounter higher dewpoint/theta-e air and greater instability. 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s some serious wording. You don’t typically see 75mph gusts mentioned 

This is going to be some serious stuff. Probably see lots of power outages too. Maybe winds in the lower-levels are just a tad bit weak for crazy widespread but those lapse rates are very steep plus the updrafts are looking robust. This is also crossing CT at prime heating

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10 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is going to be some serious stuff. Probably see lots of power outages too. Maybe winds in the lower-levels are just a tad bit weak for crazy widespread but those lapse rates are very steep plus the updrafts are looking robust. This is also crossing CT at prime heating

This is going to sneak up on a lot of people, its nice and calm and sunny right now, I bet a lot of people aren't paying attention.

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