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Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!


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12 hours ago, champy said:

I enjoyed the mood snows all day today. While it didn't add up to much, just walking outside while it snowed quietly all day was really pleasant. Some people on this forum need to remember to get outside and actually enjoy this thing we're talking about on here. It was a pleasant winter day out there with constant snow! Not bad for November...

The amount of complaining recently about not getting feet of snow in November is, um, interesting.  I know I've enjoyed the past several days, with maybe 3" total snowfall.  

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52 minutes ago, Flying MXZ said:

The amount of complaining recently about not getting feet of snow in November is, um, interesting.  I know I've enjoyed the past several days, with maybe 3" total snowfall.  

I’ve yet to have a single inch on the ground. Had 1/2” on the ground several times yesterday at different times. But it’s been a horrible November snow-wise in Rochester. A little complaining is in order. 
 

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41 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I’ve yet to have a single inch on the ground. Had 1/2” on the ground several times yesterday at different times. But it’s been a horrible November snow-wise in Rochester. A little complaining is in order. 
 

Yeah, not unreasonable at all. Just looked at all of the 5 major upstate hubs, and all 5 are running at least 50% below normal snowfall so far YTD, with ROC the furthest behind percentage wise. Luckily we are still early enough that one good storm could put any of the sites back on track, but if December ends up being another dud, it may be time to hit the panic button.

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1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

I’ve yet to have a single inch on the ground. Had 1/2” on the ground several times yesterday at different times. But it’s been a horrible November snow-wise in Rochester. A little complaining is in order. 
 

Getting zero snow in November is always on the table for Roc and WNY. The fact that we’ve had snow in the air a good 7 or 8 days is impressive in my opinion.  It can take until January some years before we really establish a wintry pattern.

I agree that the expectations around here seem higher than normal and quite out of touch to be honest. 

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Another light event through tomorrow AM..

As a flat shortwave ridge passes overhead tonight...the flow will
back just enough to send light lake snow northwards the IAG Frontier
and across the Tug Hill. These snows will be accompanied by a
general light snowfall that will blossom ahead of an approaching mid
level disturbance. Most areas will pick up a trace to an inch
although amounts up to two inches will be possible within 20 miles
or so of Lk Erie.

The aforementioned mid level disturbance will push a weak frontal
boundary through the region on Tuesday. This will generate more snow
showers with daytime accumulations averaging an inch or less

StormTotalSnowWeb (11).jpg

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On 11/6/2021 at 10:07 AM, BuffaloWeather said:

I feel confident in saying everyone here has an above average snowfall for November. Buffalo 30 year average is between 7-8" for November. You can bookmark this and tell me how wrong I was Dec 1st. 

ecmwf-weeklies-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_30day-8576000.thumb.png.9919f43cfeeeed2b8a48e0b815a10013.png

We can blame BW for our early season anxiety. He duped us like the Joker...

joker-throws-money-o.gif

jack-nicholson-joker1989.gif

 

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Alright, crunched some numbers to see how Novembers snow stats have fared in the ROC since the year 2000.

2000    7.3
2001    0.1
2002    16.9
2003    5.4
2004    1.9
2005    7.8
2006    0.5
2007    1.7
2008    11
2009    0.1
2010    0.4
2011    0.3
2012    0.8
2013    13.5
2014    9.1
2015    1.2
2016    15
2017    2.6
2018    17.4
2019    17.8
2020    1.2
2021    3.6
Average    6.2"

If we remove the 5 somewhat outlier years with greater than 13" of snow, the average falls to 3.1" which puts 2021 pretty close to on par with the typical year.  I didnt realize the back to back big Novembers of 2018 and 2019 were so anomalous now that I see a larger data set.  
 

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3 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

I’ve yet to have a single inch on the ground. Had 1/2” on the ground several times yesterday at different times. But it’s been a horrible November snow-wise in Rochester. A little complaining is in order. 
 

Picked up 0.8" of snow yday, mood snow...total of about an inch and a half over a couple of days.  Looks wintry out there even if the totals aren't noteworthy. At SYR, November avg is about 9.6" and we are under that but I'd imagine the standard deviation on Nov snowfall here is pretty big. Seems like boom or bust usually.

Edit: SYR Nov snowfall similar idea to what @DeltaT13 just posted above. 

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1 hour ago, DeltaT13 said:

Getting zero snow in November is always on the table for Roc and WNY. The fact that we’ve had snow in the air a good 7 or 8 days is impressive in my opinion.  It can take until January some years before we really establish a wintry pattern.

I agree that the expectations around here seem higher than normal and quite out of touch to be honest. 

I'm going to guess that the past 2 winters being well below norm snowfall (for most of us) has resulted in some mean reversion thinking for this winter. Can't say that I'd disagree with the thought...

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48 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Alright, crunched some numbers to see how Novembers snow stats have fared in the ROC since the year 2000.

2000    7.3
2001    0.1
2002    16.9
2003    5.4
2004    1.9
2005    7.8
2006    0.5
2007    1.7
2008    11
2009    0.1
2010    0.4
2011    0.3
2012    0.8
2013    13.5
2014    9.1
2015    1.2
2016    15
2017    2.6
2018    17.4
2019    17.8
2020    1.2
2021    3.6
Average    6.2"

If we remove the 5 somewhat outlier years with greater than 13" of snow, the average falls to 3.1" which puts 2021 pretty close to on par with the typical year.  I didnt realize the back to back big Novembers of 2018 and 2019 were so anomalous now that I see a larger data set.  
 

I almost posted that I thought the average for November was a bit misleading as it is probably a mix of great years, and years with next to nothing.  And it sure appears that way based on your chart.  I'm not doing the standard deviation or anything, but looking at the numbers, it appears maybe 3 out of 22 years can be considered near average.  

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Just now, Flying MXZ said:

I almost posted that I though the average for November was a bit misleading as it is probably a mix of great years, and years with next to nothing.  And it sure appears that way based on your chart.  I'm not doing the standard deviation or anything, but looking at the numbers, it appears maybe 3 out of 22 years can be considered near average.  

Yup, the median for that data set is 3.1".   Standard Deviation is 6.2"

All in all, November is not a winter month around here in general.  You can catch some bonus snow some years, but I would never get my hopes up in November.  I would go further and say that anytime prior to December 15th is still wishful thinking if you want consistent cold and snow.  

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1 hour ago, BGM Blizzard said:

We can blame BW for our early season troubles. He duped us like the Joker...

joker-throws-money-o.gif

jack-nicholson-joker1989.gif

 

To be fair the last 2 weeks around here have been quite wintry, just didnt expect a NW flow the entire time. Below normal temps for the month look likely for everyone in Upstate, usually that equates to above average snowfall more times than not. I still like the call.

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18 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Yup, the median for that data set is 3.1".   Standard Deviation is 6.2"

All in all, November is not a winter month around here in general.  You can catch some bonus snow some years, but I would never get my hopes up in November.  I would go further and say that anytime prior to December 15th is still wishful thinking if you want consistent cold and snow.  

Average temps in Nov start out at 53/38 and work there way down to 42/29. Can't get much snow in November unless you get some really cold departures.

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Pretty big early season event in ski country

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&product=PNS&issuedby=BUF

...Cattaraugus County...
Cattaraugus 3W               16.8 in   0700 AM 11/29   COOP

Holiday Valley with 18" storm total and 26" on the year.

Past 24 Hours
12 in.
Past 48 Hours
18 in.
Season Total
26 in.
 

Mardis Gras.jpg

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5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

@DeltaT13 You going to Monday night game against the Pats, last few days have showed a storm for the game. I'll be there!

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_28.png

GAHHH.....I don't have tickets and imagine they are crazy expensive in the aftermarket.  The models have been bouncing between a rain storm and snow storm.  If its a snow game I'll be devastated if I can't be there.  

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2 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

GAHHH.....I don't have tickets and imagine they are crazy expensive in the aftermarket.  The models have been bouncing between a rain storm and snow storm.  If its a snow game I'll be devastated if I can't be there.  

I've sat in the rain for 3 games already this year, it better be a snowstorm this time around.

Icon has a northern stream weaker storm

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_55.png

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4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I've sat in the rain for 3 games already this year, it better be a snowstorm this time around.

Icon has a northern stream weaker storm

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_55.png

I'm even fine with a rain game, I just want some kind of inclement miserable weather.  Nothing more boring than a bluebird football game.  Give me rain, give me wind, but most of all, give me SNOW.   Stubhub seems to have a lot of reasonable tix up in the 300's, and thats the best place to be in shitty weather!

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10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I've sat in the rain for 3 games already this year, it better be a snowstorm this time around.

Icon has a northern stream weaker storm

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_55.png

Ill be there next Monday and have also sat through all three rain games.

The first one my wife threw out her poncho at halftime because beer was spilled on it....luckily it was a very warm rain I sat in for the second half.

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17 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I'm even fine with a rain game, I just want some kind of inclement miserable weather.  Nothing more boring than a bluebird football game.  Give me rain, give me wind, but most of all, give me SNOW.   Stubhub seems to have a lot of reasonable tix up in the 300's, and thats the best place to be in shitty weather!

I feel like the bad weather favors the opponent. Allen is best when its sunny and warm. This team wasn't built for the ground and pound.

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15 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said:

Ill be there next Monday and have also sat through all three rain games.

The first one my wife threw out her poncho at halftime because beer was spilled on it....luckily it was a very warm rain I sat in for the second half.

That Indy game was so miserable. Cold, windy, rainy, and losing by 30. Can't get much worse than that. I left at end of 3rd quarter.

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…as winds back to W late this afternoon into this evening, expect lake effect to increase some into western NY likely centered on western S. Tier into S. Erie county. Maybe an inch or two of snow at most if a band develops and can persist. Most likely looking at less than an inch. Later tonight, as flow is more WSW-W and shortwave and weak low pressure with warm front and isentropic lift approach from western Great Lakes lake enhanced snow will try to develop across Grand Island, Buffalo Northtowns and into western/southern Niagara county. A couple inches of snow may occur here as well with best chances on Grand Island…

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