TugHillMatt Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 6 hours ago, Blue Moon said: Today should be my first LES experience. I am excited for you! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 1 hour ago, CNY_WX said: I would take that, puts me in the 3-6 inch category. The Syracuse meteorologists hate forecasting snow for the Syracuse area. Perhaps they're right...but I like Buffalo NWS MUCH better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Well after just looking at 6Z Rgem and Nams, I can see why Syracuse mets made that map. I wish WNW and NW flow wasn't always so "up in the air".... literally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 1 hour ago, CNY_WX said: I would take that, puts me in the 3-6 inch category. Map probably good if the banding sets up "further north" than modeling. Hope its wrong. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, Syrmax said: Map probably good if the banding sets up "further north" than modeling. Hope its wrong. It seems like some models are focusing on a WNW dominant band that has more of a Westerly component, while some are focusing on a WNW band with a more NWly component...with us between. Hopefully it will be a "blend" with the band focusing on us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 34 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: The Syracuse meteorologists hate forecasting snow for the Syracuse area. Perhaps they're right...but I like Buffalo NWS MUCH better... Looks like they both have generally the same idea. The NWS is a bit further south with the placement of the maxima which is good for you. Either way is about the same for me. With no real accumulation so far this year I would be satisfied with 3-4 inches out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 22, 2021 Author Share Posted November 22, 2021 Looks pretty good for those that get hit with NW flow the next 10 days or so. Couple decent events. I don't see any synoptic hits just lake effect behind cold fronts. I like the end of the GEFS, lets hope it stays like that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Euro consistent with the wrap around W/NW flow this upcoming weekend.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Looking north to me: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 22, 2021 Author Share Posted November 22, 2021 From NE forum: Model gudiance has punted very early December for a few days now....we're gonna get a full torch for a few days there. But they are pretty adamant about rebuilding the Aleutian ridging into the WPO region by about Dec 7-9 or so. That should set the stage for some cold air bleeding down into northern CONUS and get some winter wx threats. If that 2nd paragraph is true December might be rockin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 22, 2021 Author Share Posted November 22, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 29 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: Looks like they both have generally the same idea. The NWS is a bit further south with the placement of the maxima which is good for you. Either way is about the same for me. With no real accumulation so far this year I would be satisfied with 3-4 inches out of this. Yeah, I am thinking 3 inches for many of us in this area. Seeing some snow flurries now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 43 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Euro consistent with the wrap around W/NW flow this upcoming weekend.. Man am I praying for this. Plan on decorating the tree and house and would pick the snowiest day! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WaistDeepSnow Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 50 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Looks pretty good for those that get hit with NW flow the next 10 days or so. Couple decent events. I don't see any synoptic hits just lake effect behind cold fronts. I like the end of the GEFS, lets hope it stays like that. It would be nice to get some SW flow events for the north towners. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Moon Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Mostly graupel right now. Light IP showers and windy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 The joys of predicting lake effect precipitation.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 22, 2021 Author Share Posted November 22, 2021 26 minutes ago, WaistDeepSnow said: It would be nice to get some SW flow events for the north towners. Going to be a little while for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 GFS looked somewhat better for this weekend.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 46 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: The joys of predicting lake effect precipitation.. Knowing how well the Rgem does with lake effect snow, it kills me seeing it miss me to the north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yea early December doesn't look wintry at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattny88 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 WSYR local meteorologist are calling for 1-3 as the band oscillates and then it looks like they went with more of the southern model run of a band setting up shop over eastern cayuga/southwest onondaga. i am with you tughillmatt, my name is matt as well and i just relocated last year from oswego down here to liverpool right off soule rd about a minute from rte 31...being new to the route 31 corridor, what kind of wind is the best setup for us that can produce a stationary band that doesnt jump right over us? Is there any historical archive maps of northern onondaga county that reflect past big pure lake effect events other then nws maps..i would assume a west to north west wind with more towards a northwest wind would be almost ideal..i was accustomed to oswego getting the winds on a west to slightly west north west wind. but i tended to find that oswego had to have pretty light calm winds for a big time stationary band to set up over the city of oswego... i drive daily from liverpool to oswego and traveling up 481 the fulton/volney area always seems to be the sweet spot..let me know your thoughts with this storm regarding snow amounts and in general for northern onondaga. Also if anyone can help me out and repost what i had seen a picture of from a good while back. it was a picture of the direction of the wind flow it had different arrows coming off the lake and for each arrow it showed the degree of wind flow for each angle. would like a picture to relate to when the national weather service discussion talk about the wind direction degree relating it to my area.. Thanks everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Moon Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Intermittent graupel showers right now. I have seen a few big flakes mixed in but only during the heaviest showers. Precip's been light as expected. We're not forecast to receive any accumulation until sundown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Moon Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 39 minutes ago, mattny88 said: WSYR local meteorologist are calling for 1-3 as the band oscillates and then it looks like they went with more of the southern model run of a band setting up shop over eastern cayuga/southwest onondaga. i am with you tughillmatt, my name is matt as well and i just relocated last year from oswego down here to liverpool right off soule rd about a minute from rte 31...being new to the route 31 corridor, what kind of wind is the best setup for us that can produce a stationary band that doesnt jump right over us? Is there any historical archive maps of northern onondaga county that reflect past big pure lake effect events other then nws maps..i would assume a west to north west wind with more towards a northwest wind would be almost ideal..i was accustomed to oswego getting the winds on a west to slightly west north west wind. but i tended to find that oswego had to have pretty light calm winds for a big time stationary band to set up over the city of oswego... i drive daily from liverpool to oswego and traveling up 481 the fulton/volney area always seems to be the sweet spot..let me know your thoughts with this storm regarding snow amounts and in general for northern onondaga. Also if anyone can help me out and repost what i had seen a picture of from a good while back. it was a picture of the direction of the wind flow it had different arrows coming off the lake and for each arrow it showed the degree of wind flow for each angle. would like a picture to relate to when the national weather service discussion talk about the wind direction degree relating it to my area.. Thanks everyone That looks like a sensible call and it's more in line with the HRRR than the RGEM. The winds are W right now but are going to start to shift to the NW which will favor that stretch in Cayuga and Onondaga counties more than Oswego county. From what I understand (take my knowledge with a grain of salt- for those who don't know me, it's my 1st winter here) Oswego's ideal LES prevailing winds are from the WNW or around 285°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Moon Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Fulton's obs. temp is 32F right now. Curious if they're getting accumulating snow down the road. SUNY Oswego's on-campus tower reports 38F: https://www.oswego.edu/met_class/tower/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 5 minutes ago, Blue Moon said: Fulton's obs. temp is 32F right now. Curious if they're getting accumulating snow down the road. SUNY Oswego's on-campus tower reports 38F: https://www.oswego.edu/met_class/tower/ Latest metar from the Oswego County airport in Fulton is reporting light snow with 1 mile visibility. But in the remarks it states that visibility is variable from 1/2 to 5 miles. It’s possible that in one of those heavier squalls the temperature could fall to 32. METAR for:KFZY (Fulton/Oswego Cnty, NY, US) Text:KFZY 221821Z AUTO 26017G25KT 1SM -SN BKN026 OVC033 01/M04 A2991 RMK AO2 VIS 1/2V5 P0001 T00111039 Temperature:1.1°C ( 34°F) Dewpoint:-3.9°C ( 25°F) [RH = 69%] Pressure (altimeter):29.91 inches Hg (1013.0 mb) Winds:from the W (260 degrees) at 20 MPH (17 knots; 8.7 m/s) gusting to 29 MPH (25 knots; 12.9 m/s) Visibility:1.00 sm ( 1.61 km) Ceiling:2600 feet AGL Clouds:broken clouds at 2600 feet AGL, overcast cloud deck at 3300 feet AGL Weather:-SN (light snow) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Ground is white here again. Maybe a 1/2"-3/4" of white gold. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Band has been teasing here all day. Looks like it's heading north a bit. Yep, I can tell where this is going... Southern Oswego County gets it...transitions and jumps over us to hit the Finger Lakes. Right, @Syrmax? I think I'm getting the gist of this. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Band has been teasing here all day. Looks like it's heading north a bit. Yep, I can tell where this is going... Southern Oswego County gets it...transitions and jumps over us to hit the Finger Lakes. Right, @Syrmax? I think I'm getting the gist of this. lol I think I read in one discussion that the L.O. band would be more westerly at first and sag to WNW flow over the night. I never have much expectation with Fake Effect snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Matt, did you do this? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattny88 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 WSYR NEWS CHANNEL 9 newest updated snowfall map for tonight... based off this map looks like they have adjusted the highest snow totals and bullseye for the lake effect band to set up over southern oswego county into the night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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