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Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!


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2 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Map probably good if the banding sets up "further north" than modeling.  Hope its wrong.

It seems like some models are focusing on a WNW dominant band that has more of a Westerly component, while some are focusing on a WNW band with a more NWly component...with us between. Hopefully it will be a "blend" with the band focusing on us.

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34 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

The Syracuse meteorologists hate forecasting snow for the Syracuse area. Perhaps they're right...but I like Buffalo NWS MUCH better... :) 

weatherstory.gif

Looks like they both have generally the same idea. The NWS is a bit further south with the placement of the maxima which is good for you. Either way is about the same for me. With no real accumulation so far this year I would be satisfied with 3-4 inches out of this. 

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From NE forum:

Model gudiance has punted very early December for a few days now....we're gonna get a full torch for a few days there.

But they are pretty adamant about rebuilding the Aleutian ridging into the WPO region by about Dec 7-9 or so. That should set the stage for some cold air bleeding down into northern CONUS and get some winter wx threats.  

If that 2nd paragraph is true December might be rockin.

7411BCA7-3FE8-4111-A447-DD4EA316A905.png 

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29 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

Looks like they both have generally the same idea. The NWS is a bit further south with the placement of the maxima which is good for you. Either way is about the same for me. With no real accumulation so far this year I would be satisfied with 3-4 inches out of this. 

Yeah, I am thinking 3 inches for many of us in this area.

Seeing some snow flurries now.

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50 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Looks pretty good for those that get hit with NW flow the next 10 days or so. Couple decent events. I don't see any synoptic hits just lake effect behind cold fronts. I like the end of the GEFS, lets hope it stays like that. 

gfs_z500a_namer_65.png

It would be nice to get some SW flow events for the north towners.  

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WSYR local meteorologist are calling for 1-3 as the band oscillates and then it looks like they went with more of the southern model run of a band setting up shop over eastern cayuga/southwest onondaga.  i am with you tughillmatt, my name is matt as well and i just relocated last year from oswego down here to liverpool right off soule rd about a minute from rte 31...being new to the route 31 corridor, what kind of wind is the best setup for us that can produce a stationary band that doesnt jump right over us? Is there any historical archive maps of northern onondaga county that reflect past big pure lake effect events other then nws maps..i would assume a west to north west wind with more towards a northwest wind would be almost ideal..i was accustomed to oswego getting the winds on a west to slightly west north west wind. but i tended to find that oswego  had to have pretty light  calm  winds for a big time stationary band to set up over the city of oswego... i drive daily from liverpool to oswego and traveling up 481 the fulton/volney area always seems to be the sweet spot..let me know your thoughts with this storm regarding snow amounts and in general for northern onondaga.  Also if anyone can help me out and repost what i had seen a picture of from a good while back. it was a picture of the direction of the wind flow it had different arrows coming off the lake and for each arrow it showed the degree of wind flow for each angle.  would like a picture to relate to when the national weather service discussion talk about the wind direction degree relating it to my area.. Thanks everyone

snowfall map.jpg

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39 minutes ago, mattny88 said:

WSYR local meteorologist are calling for 1-3 as the band oscillates and then it looks like they went with more of the southern model run of a band setting up shop over eastern cayuga/southwest onondaga.  i am with you tughillmatt, my name is matt as well and i just relocated last year from oswego down here to liverpool right off soule rd about a minute from rte 31...being new to the route 31 corridor, what kind of wind is the best setup for us that can produce a stationary band that doesnt jump right over us? Is there any historical archive maps of northern onondaga county that reflect past big pure lake effect events other then nws maps..i would assume a west to north west wind with more towards a northwest wind would be almost ideal..i was accustomed to oswego getting the winds on a west to slightly west north west wind. but i tended to find that oswego  had to have pretty light  calm  winds for a big time stationary band to set up over the city of oswego... i drive daily from liverpool to oswego and traveling up 481 the fulton/volney area always seems to be the sweet spot..let me know your thoughts with this storm regarding snow amounts and in general for northern onondaga.  Also if anyone can help me out and repost what i had seen a picture of from a good while back. it was a picture of the direction of the wind flow it had different arrows coming off the lake and for each arrow it showed the degree of wind flow for each angle.  would like a picture to relate to when the national weather service discussion talk about the wind direction degree relating it to my area.. Thanks everyone

snowfall map.jpg

That looks like a sensible call and it's more in line with the HRRR than the RGEM. The winds are W right now but are going to start to shift to the NW which will favor that stretch in Cayuga and Onondaga counties more than Oswego county. From what I understand (take my knowledge with a grain of salt- for those who don't know me, it's my 1st winter here) Oswego's ideal LES prevailing winds are from the WNW or around 285°.

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5 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

Fulton's obs. temp is 32F right now. Curious if they're getting accumulating snow down the road. 

 

SUNY Oswego's on-campus tower reports 38F: https://www.oswego.edu/met_class/tower/

Latest metar from the Oswego County airport in Fulton is reporting light snow with 1 mile visibility. But in the remarks it states that visibility is variable from 1/2 to 5 miles. It’s possible that in one of those heavier squalls the temperature could fall to 32. 
 

METAR for:KFZY (Fulton/Oswego Cnty, NY, US) 

Text:KFZY 221821Z AUTO 26017G25KT 1SM -SN BKN026 OVC033 01/M04 A2991 RMK AO2 VIS 1/2V5 P0001 T00111039

Temperature:1.1°C ( 34°F)

Dewpoint:-3.9°C ( 25°F) [RH = 69%]

Pressure (altimeter):29.91 inches Hg (1013.0 mb)

Winds:from the W (260 degrees) at 20 MPH (17 knots; 8.7 m/s) gusting to 29 MPH (25 knots; 12.9 m/s)

Visibility:1.00 sm ( 1.61 km)

Ceiling:2600 feet AGL

Clouds:broken clouds at 2600 feet AGL, overcast cloud deck at 3300 feet AGL

Weather:-SN (light snow)

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2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Band has been teasing here all day. Looks like it's heading north a bit. Yep, I can tell where this is going...

Southern Oswego County gets it...transitions and jumps over us to hit the Finger Lakes.

Right, @Syrmax? I think I'm getting the gist of this. lol

I think I read in one discussion that the L.O. band would be more westerly at first and sag to WNW flow over the night.  I never have much expectation with Fake Effect snow here. 

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