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Possible severe weather Monday


StormfanaticInd
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Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1258 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID
   MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT
   LAKES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong/isolated severe storms -- including potential for hail,
   locally damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes -- are expected to
   spread from the Mid Mississippi Valley region early,
   north-northeastward into the Upper Great Lakes through the
   evening/overnight hours Monday and into early Tuesday.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper trough digging south-southeastward across California and
   the Great Basin Monday will evolve into a closed low, which is
   expected deepen and turn eastward overnight reaching the
   southwestern Utah vicinity Tuesday morning.  Ahead of this system, a
   negatively tilted short-wave trough will be shifting northeastward
   across the Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys during the
   day, before crossing the Upper Great Lakes region overnight. 
   Meanwhile, ridging will remain in place -- aligned roughly along the
   Appalachians.

   At the surface, a cold front associated with the western U.S. trough
   will sweep across the Great Basin and into the Four Corners states. 
   Meanwhile, a cold front shifting eastward out of the southern Plains
   toward the Mississippi Valley will weaken with time, while an
   associated/weak frontal low advances northeastward from Missouri to
   Wisconsin/Upper Michigan through the period.

   ...Mid Mississippi Valley northward into the Upper Great Lakes...
   Showers and scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the
   start of the period from western Illinois/Missouri
   south-southwestward to southeastern Texas, ahead of an advancing
   cold front.  A couple of stronger storms ongoing early could pose
   local risk for severe weather.  After a few hours of local/limited
   risk, diurnal heating through late morning and into the afternoon
   will permit sufficient destabilization to allow gradual
   reintensification/redevelopment of storms, from Illinois to the
   Mississippi Delta region, then spreading northward and northeastward
   through the afternoon.  Though flow aloft will remain largely
   south-southwesterly/unidirectional, sufficient speed shear combined
   with weak veering through the lowest 1 km or so suggests that
   locally severe/rotating storms will evolve, with threat for damaging
   wind gusts, along with some hail risk and potential for a couple of
   tornadoes across a relatively broad geographic region.

   A bit more uncertainty exists with northward extent, and into the
   evening hours, into the Great Lakes region.  While ascent will
   spread across this region supporting a continuation of convection
   through the evening and into the overnight hours, less substantial
   instability -- diminishing further in tandem with diurnal cooling --
   suggests that severe risk will wane gradually from late evening
   onward.

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Tomorrow will be highly dependent on debris from tonights activity that moves across the region tomorrow. It won’t take much clearing to make for a favorable environment ahead of the low/front in IL, so it’ll have to be watched.

IL is really the main focus, as that huge slight risk from the SPC is way overdone.


.

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I suppose I'll take a middle ground between SPC and Chi Storm.  I think the size of the risk area is overdone but I think the threat extends east of IL.

I’m talking about the main threat, like 5% tor worthy threat (Not that it’s even worthy of that right now). That will be limited to IL.


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mcd1831.gif.209dfae7815416ff3dabcca463e3b7fc.gif

 

Mesoscale Discussion 1831
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0906 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021

   Areas affected...eastern MO...western and central IL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 111406Z - 111630Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Trends will be monitored this morning for surface-based
   thunderstorm development.  The initial area of concern will be over
   central MO and areas northeastward towards the MS River.  A tornado
   watch will likely be needed by midday for portions of eastern MO
   into western IL.  It is uncertain whether surface-based storms and a
   subsequent tornado risk will develop as far north as extreme eastern
   IA.

   DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a compact/intense
   mid-level shortwave trough over the lower MO Valley.  Weak
   convection has been maintained this morning within the warm conveyer
   belt from southeast MO through the Saint Louis area and into western
   IL.  A surface trough/windshift is analyzed this morning arcing from
   near the low through central and south-central MO.  A small area of
   cloud breaks is noted in visible-satellite imagery over central MO
   where forcing is maximized and over the location of greatest concern
   this morning.

   Model forecast soundings show gradual destabilization this morning
   into the midday hours as temperatures slowly rise into the lower 70s
   with a moist boundary layer.  Very strong low-level flow noted at
   the Saint Louis 88D VAD is resulting in a large low-level hodograph
   (400+ m2/s2 0-1 km SRH).  Once sufficiently strong updrafts can
   develop/persist, a severe risk will likely ensue with an isolated
   risk for tornadoes and damaging winds being the primary concerns.

   ..Smith/Hart.. 10/11/2021
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1 hour ago, purduewx80 said:

Storm motions will be on the order of 50-60MPH+.

Maybe he meant storms chasing him :lol:

Really though, in the Midwest that's okay from a chasing perspective. You've got tons of wide open field and flat land, easier to stay safe as long as you don't act like a lunatic and get right up in it

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Just now, nwohweather said:

Maybe he meant storms chasing him :lol:

Really though, in the Midwest that's okay from a chasing perspective. You've got tons of wide open field and flat land, easier to stay safe as long as you don't act like a lunatic and get right up in it

Way I see it, if nothing else it'll be experience and practice for next time. 

To my knowledge, most of the terrain down there is great as long as you can stay away-ish from the Illinois River. 

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2 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Way I see it, if nothing else it'll be experience and practice for next time. 

To my knowledge, most of the terrain down there is great as long as you can stay away-ish from the Illinois River. 

For sure I would. As long as you have a good radar app, stick to open space, and keep a safe distance you're good to go. Heck I remember when I was younger living in Ohio before the 4G cell days, I'd call a buddy with GRLevel and they'd give me a radar play by play while I chased. Then just let your eyes guide you and watch where the lowering/rotation is and stay out of hail

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