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“Let’s Talk Winter”


Steve
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A lot of hi-res models had mixing all the way into NE OH and NW PA for a time later this evening, so I don't think the mix is a surprise. It "should" go to snow through the evening as better banding develops. I wouldn't call a bust yet but you'll know which way it's going in the next few hours if banding starts cranking and flips everyone back to snow. Along the OH river went back to snow as heavier rates developed over the last hour or so. 

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Big snow band starting to take shape parts of southern and eastern OH, and will ramp up more over the next few hours as it slowly moves north-northeast

Multiple things contributing...THIS IS CLASSIC...you have weaker stability on the edge of the dry slot which can allow for slantwise convection (which is what typically occurs in mesoscale banded snow). You also have a TROWAL nosing in from the east (trough of warm air aloft), enhancing the mid-level temperature gradient. You already have a nice deform zone and some mid-level fgen, and that means ascent/rising air, which will cool the atmosphere further (and should gradually cause any pockets of mix to go away through the evening). This cooling will also increase the temperature gradient on the edge of the TROWAL, strengthening the fgen further and causing the band to really rip. Definitely some positive feedbacks here. The branch of the warm conveyor belt wrapping cyclonically into the deform zone is adding some deeper moisture to. Parts of eastern Ohio will absolutely rip snow this evening into the overnight. Travel will be nearly impossible, this is a high-end set-up for our region (and this will go into W PA, W NY, and eventually S Ontario too).

The heaviest may be east of some of the posters in this thread, but it's really an outstanding set-up for our region! 

311756696_COD-GOES-East-regional-eastcoast_09.20220117.001617-overmap-bars.thumb.gif.e7a5496e3c68859f346221e79ffb6bbf.gif

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53 minutes ago, dilly84 said:

Back to sleet in knox county. This is ridiculous. I should be far enough north that this isn't an issue with this system. It's starting to look like a massive bust just like the one storm last year. It's gonna have to hammer down to even come close to model totals.

Huge bust for some of the models sure, but you’re in an advisory for 3-5” which still should be doable. Hi-res models had this mixing this evening. The low is closed off early, the warm air is wrapping in from the east. I’ve actually mixed a bit here. Any pockets of sleet will go away over the next few hours. You should still have enough liquid left to get into the 3-5” range, but 6”+ is probably off the table. I know that’s not that much after waiting this long to get something but if it hits the NWS forecast it’s hard to call it a huge bust (at least IMO). It seems like your area is sort of stuck in a little screw hole for now…things will move around but I think that’s why you’ve done so poorly and mixed so much so far. That storm last year you’re referencing stayed well under everyone’s forecasts (including mine) for a large area. I don’t think this is that, though some models will be pretty wrong for your area so it feels like you’re leaving something on the table.  

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17 minutes ago, OHweather said:

Huge bust for some of the models sure, but you’re in an advisory for 3-5” which still should be doable. Hi-res models had this mixing this evening. The low is closed off early, the warm air is wrapping in from the east. I’ve actually mixed a bit here. Any pockets of sleet will go away over the next few hours. You should still have enough liquid left to get into the 3-5” range, but 6”+ is probably off the table. I know that’s not that much after waiting this long to get something but if it hits the NWS forecast it’s hard to call it a huge bust (at least IMO). It seems like your area is sort of stuck in a little screw hole for now…things will move around but I think that’s why you’ve done so poorly and mixed so much so far. That storm last year you’re referencing stayed well under everyone’s forecasts (including mine) for a large area. I don’t think this is that, though some models will be pretty wrong for your area so it feels like you’re leaving something on the table.  

Short range models still showing a lot for here. We'll see.

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Just now, dilly84 said:

Short range models still showing a lot for here. We'll see.

I think they're a little too bullish but I think if you get into the NWS 3-5" (granted it can be argued that was a little conservative) I'd take it and run this winter. We need to get you out of the little screw hole between banding though and it should go back to snow and start accumulating quicker. 

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4 minutes ago, OHweather said:

I think they're a little too bullish but I think if you get into the NWS 3-5" (granted it can be argued that was a little conservative) I'd take it and run this winter. We need to get you out of the little screw hole between banding though and it should go back to snow and start accumulating quicker. 

We're in heavy snow now and probably at about 3

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Close to two inches here just Southeast of Dayton in Bellbrook. We were fortunate the far western band inched a bit further NW than forecast. Throw a rock west of Dayton and its zippo. Sad that we get excited for a couple of inches of snow in mid January. That's what happens when you have to wait this deep into winter to get that white elixir. Maybe our fortunes are changing. :snowwindow:No description available.

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