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2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


BlueRidgeFolklore
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Updated GSP AFD (Changed Discussion only)

 

 
- Changed Discussion --

As of 940 AM EST Saturday: Despite the widespread mid and high clouds, and patchy low clouds, temps have warmed faster than expected. Have raised highs a couple of degrees most locations as a result. This warming may also play a part in the resulting p-types of the pre-main event rain/snow showers that develop over the mountains, NC Foothills, and I-40 corridor this afternoon. With the warmer temps, the showers may be more rain than snow outside of the mountains, even with the expected evaporational cooling. Either way no significant accums are expected outside of the highest elevations. Even there, mainly a dusting is expected. Largely anticipate quasi-zonal flow aloft with weak northeasterly flow at the surface. High pressure settles across New England today and strengthens the developing northeasterly flow, prompting the developing of a cold-air damming situation east of the Appalachians. Increasing low-level WAA suggests that moist upglide will gradually tick upward throughout the day, which will result in enhanced low- to mid-level cloud cover. A few of the CAMs are advertising spotty showers from late morning onward, but profiles indicate continued dry advection in the boundary layer (courtesy of sustained northeast winds) will keep much of the precipitation from reaching the ground in lieu of simply strengthening the cold wedge. Saturday night, impacts from an approaching winter storm will begin in earnest. By 21Z, the models depict a closed upper low shifting east out of the ArkLaTex region and steering a rapidly developing surface cyclone northeast out of the Deep South. Models are now in excellent agreement that the low will track across the southern Upstate and produce widespread wintry precipitation. With the cold wedge still intact and ~850mb WAA enhancing a warm nose aloft, a developing rain-freezing rain mix will further enhance the CAD. How far north and west this warm nose will extend remains a topic of contention among the models still, but the trend over the last 24 hours has been for the CAMs to bring the warm nose farther inland, resulting in more widespread ice across the Upstate and even into parts of the Piedmont. As the 850mb low tracks north and east of our CWA, low-level flow will rapidly turn easterly by perhaps 12Z Sunday. 850mb WAA becomes increasingly anemic and the warm nose begins to diminish by Sunday evening. By this point in time, however, profiles will starting to dry, as dry cool-sector air filters into the area, scouring out the wedge. This drying should gradually deactivate ice nuclei, decreasing precip rates overall and allowing a transition back to a light, patchy, snow-sleet mix across most of the Piedmont and Upstate. The mountains, meanwhile are on track for a mostly-snow forecast. The warm nose should not penetrate into the Appalachians. Profiles here appear to remain well-saturated and sub-freezing through most of the event, allowing for an easy transition from a rain-snow mix to all snow from Saturday night onward. Precipitation intensity and coverage should drop off significantly past mid-afternoon Sunday. Patchy snow and sleet warrants slight PoPs across the area through 00Z Monday and beyond, however, especially in the mountains where NW flow snow will likely already be developing in the wake of the system.

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1 minute ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah I know exactly were that is. I have some friends with horses that live up that way and some friends that live up big bald. I live on the Canton side of Crabtree were I can see Canton and Mt. Pisgah.  

I like where we are sitting, really all of Haywood. Hope our Cruso member can take delight in what looks to be jackpot areas for Haywood, I know it’s probably not the same kind of excitement after the flooding with lots left to clean up and try to get back to life pre-flood.

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13 minutes ago, mercurydime said:

Updated GSP AFD (Changed Discussion only)

 

 
- Changed Discussion --

. How far north and west this warm nose will extend remains a topic of contention among the models still, but the trend over the last 24 hours has been for the CAMs to bring the warm nose farther inland, resulting in more widespread ice across the Upstate and even into parts of the Piedmont.

 

. The mountains, meanwhile are on track for a mostly-snow forecast. The warm nose should not penetrate into the Appalachians. Profiles here appear to remain well-saturated and sub-freezing through most of the event, allowing for an easy transition from a rain-snow mix to all snow from Saturday night onward. Precipitation intensity and coverage should drop off significantly past mid-afternoon Sunday.

 

No mention of the adjacent foothills areas. 

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3 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

 

No mention of the adjacent foothills areas. 

Nope...other than the temp increase and p-type issues for the scattered precipitation instances they've mentioned for the last day or so.   

Interested to see how the cold wedge holds up here just east of the escarpment.  

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2 minutes ago, mercurydime said:

Nope...other than the temp increase and p-type issues for the scattered precipitation instances they've mentioned for the last day or so.   

Interested to see how the cold wedge holds up here just east of the escarpment.  

Good points by GSP though and looking like a hefty raking of snow for most in this sub thread. 

 

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2 minutes ago, NavarreDon said:

It’s basically go time now. Model watching is about over. If I was up there I’d be looking at the strength & placement of the HP & watching the track, speed of the developing LP.


.

Totally get that, but I will never stop model watching :lol:

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1 minute ago, NavarreDon said:

It’s basically go time now. Model watching is about over. If I was up there I’d be looking at the strength & placement of the HP & watching the track, speed of the developing LP.


.

Still about 12-13 hours to real go time but it’s getting there. 

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2 minutes ago, BretWx said:

Such a good look to it:

prateptype_cat.us_ma.png

 

Man that is just straight weenie weather porn. 1-2” an hour type rates as it passes over all of us. GFS almost out of range now tho as we draw closer but it seriously has been rock steady for a good 4/5/6 days 

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1 hour ago, ncjoaquin said:

Well. I am in Candler, so I like the 9 inches part. I still think the models are overdoing that. I have seen a difference before, but not 9 inches,lol.

I think around Candler we'll see around a foot myself, looks like the deformation zone will come right over us dumping another 2- 4 inches.  Don't think we have any trouble reaching a foot when all is said and done.  Then the wind gust around 51 miles an hour, :ee::o

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