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2021-2022 Fall/Winter Mountains Thread


BlueRidgeFolklore
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i'm not sure what to think of the 18Z Nam. It's almost making me think the original LP isn't wanting to do the energy transfer, the part that acts as the wrap around has been looking better held together at the Gulf, almost as if saying it's trying to stay a Miller A instead of a hybrid. Might be a dumb description but it's strange to watch the past few Nam runs.

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5 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Just trends to watch, not favorable trends if you want what the NWS snow map depicts.

It’s not a trend. NWS had a disco earlier where they were confident the LP was heading towards 95, not taking a dip in Lake Chatuge. NAM is struggling to resolve this for some reason. 

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Phew. I will believe it when I see it! 

Saturday Night: A slight chance of rain and snow before 7pm, then snow. Low around 23. North northeast wind 6 to 11 mph becoming east southeast in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.


Sunday: Snow. High near 27. North northeast wind 11 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 7 to 11 inches possible.

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17 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Probably seeing the NAM bias of being skimpy with QPF. Hard to think it use to be so overrode with it. 

Yeah, if we underperform on QPF around here it's almost always from getting screwed by a massive dry slot followed by paltry wrap around, not from less in the front end. If anything, more times than not we overperform with the front end thump from the orographic lift the models don't see well. 

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One thing that seems off about some of the model runs is that it shows heavy snow to heavy freezing rain from one frame to another back to heavy snow.  To me that is off and that is telling me there is some feedback issues with the surface to precipitation outputs.  Not that im worried but I think this is a flaw in the models with this system....

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Guys I alluded to this in the winter storm main chat but I would REALLY pay attention to that monstrous upper level low swinging through a lot of our area, because on the backside the winds are gonna turn, it’s going to bring some even colder air and from what I just saw on the GFS there could be a pretty nice convective band that traverses. That is almost always under modeled until short range models are almost at kickoff 

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2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Guys I alluded to this in the winter storm main chat but I would REALLY pay attention to that monstrous upper level low swinging through a lot of our area, because on the backside the winds are gonna turn, it’s going to bring some even colder air and from what I just saw on the GFS there could be a pretty nice convective band that traverses. That is almost always under modeled until short range models are almost at kickoff 

Yep just what I alluded to. I've seen these bands in the past give an extra 4 to 8 inches that wasn't even forecast. 

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10 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yep just what I alluded to. I've seen these bands in the past give an extra 4 to 8 inches that wasn't even forecast. 

Exactly! 2014 same type of ULL swing through. Forecasted 1-3/2-4 type deal got like 9”. It snowed so freakin hard it was incredible 

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7 minutes ago, BretWx said:

I remember using this back in the day (a few years ago) - I wonder if the data is outdated or...? The banner at the top says you need NWS login. Ha!

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/gefs_plumes/index.html?stationname=KAVL

Although I think it's the same data, I use this site https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/srefplumes/ and no mention of a update or NWS login.

 

Oh wait no, the one I linked is in relation to the Nam I believe, and yours is GEFS.

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