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2021-22 Winter Discussion


Hoosier
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5 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

 I'm remembering the mid February storm, temps were pretty cold, like in the upper teens? The ratios def saved it from being a total dud  Not one model had the dry slot getting this far north, but somehow Detroit always finds a way to get into it. Either way it's been a pretty dull Winter the past 3 years so hopefully we can get things going in here soon.  It's a bummer because we've had some decent colder around here lately but no storms. Hopefully yall don't mind us cluttering up this thread a bit.  Not a whole lot going on really anywhere snowwise.

Yes temps were very cold. February is our "can't go wrong" month anymore.  Last Winter was on its way to being extremely meh, outside of a perfect Christmas snowfall, then as usual February came along and bam. Deep snow and deep cold. How long will you be in Florida?

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9 hours ago, Malacka11 said:

Honestly please keep posting as much as you can, it helps me get through the boring times and reminds me that I'm not the only goofball wasting away over little water crystals fluttering down from above. 

I just tell people I storm chase, sounds much cooler.

What I don't tell people is that much of the time I'm chasing something that can't be found.

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15 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Yes temps were very cold. February is our "can't go wrong" month anymore.  Last Winter was on its way to being extremely meh, outside of a perfect Christmas snowfall, then as usual February came along and bam. Deep snow and deep cold. How long will you be in Florida?

Don't look now, but are we about to add onto KDTW's November snow total?? 6 more days..6 more ways.

So, what is "avg" for Nov here anyways? 1.9" was mine back in Marshall where LES could contribute in many early season cold outbreaks.

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5 hours ago, Baum said:

probably have 20 inches down by Christmas. Fake October and November events rarely mean much in my book. 

Dittos, but you don't want to go too deep waiting on accum's either. Basically, any year starting post-Dec 5th was pure garbage. I'd rather not roll those dice. Y'all need something on the board at ORD, unless ofc, you're rooting for a lame-ass winter.

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12 hours ago, RogueWaves said:
11 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The way I look at it is that a very slow start would make it difficult to end up with an elite winter snowfall-wise, if not taking that off the table entirely.  Can still end up with a decent/snowier than avg winter, just not top tier.

Dittos, but you don't want to go too deep waiting on accum's either. Basically, any year starting post-Dec 5th was pure garbage. I'd rather not roll those dice. Y'all need something on the board at ORD, unless ofc, you're rooting for a lame-ass winter.

Rarely, in a Chicago winter do we have a real "snow" event logged at this point. I agree, if your simply focused on accumulation totals 5" of stat padders that melted on contact help in that game. But my recollection is many winters that started out WAD and flipped to cold and snowy were some of the best. To me, when the pattern shifts in our favor, and it will, it won't go to waste as it would in pre December events.

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There are years where it just seems so easy for it to warm up and torch in the East. This year seems different, and watching the ridge continually fail to come east and mature is a good sign for us, IMHO.  For whatever interconnected reason, the eastern trough doesn't want to budge, and I like it!

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14 hours ago, Hoosier said:

The way I look at it is that a very slow start would make it difficult to end up with an elite winter snowfall-wise, if not taking that off the table entirely.  Can still end up with a decent/snowier than avg winter, just not top tier.

Dig a little deeper and show me which of those top 9 winters went that way? Just to sanity check my own memory, I briefly peeked at the years noted during the last 3 decades for my former region in SWMI. Of those 5, only 12-13 came near normal, most were substantially below, one 94-95 was a horrid 56% of normal. Not snowless winters by any means, but it's a game of avoid the cellar dwellers.

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1 hour ago, Frog Town said:

There are years where it just seems so easy for it to warm up and torch in the East. This year seems different, and watching the ridge continually fail to come east and mature is a good sign for us, IMHO.  For whatever interconnected reason, the eastern trough doesn't want to budge, and I like it!

Unfortunately, it's a pattern of cold NW flow mostly moisture starved clippers, and the risk is when/if it flips (nothing locks all winter) we end up on the warm side of hard cutters. Tbd ofc, but this gradient is very much like Dec 2017 so far.

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1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

Unfortunately, it's a pattern of cold NW flow mostly moisture starved clippers, and the risk is when/if it flips (nothing locks all winter) we end up on the warm side of hard cutters. Tbd ofc, but this gradient is very much like Dec 2017 so far.

I'd take a repeat of 2017-18 in a heartbeat

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2 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Dig a little deeper and show me which of those top 9 winters went that way? Just to sanity check my own memory, I briefly peeked at the years noted during the last 3 decades for my former region in SWMI. Of those 5, only 12-13 came near normal, most were substantially below, one 94-95 was a horrid 56% of normal. Not snowless winters by any means, but it's a game of avoid the cellar dwellers.

Was making a general point about slower than average starts and not focusing on those 9 years.

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To my earlier point, here's some data.  Obviously the definition/cutoff of an "elite" snowfall winter has some subjectivity, but taking a look at the top 10 snowiest for Chicago, 9 out of 10 had high single digit or double digit snowfall totals by December 15.  The one that didn't was 1966-67, which only had 3.0" by December 15, and it took the #1 snowstorm of all-time in January 1967 to be in the mix to make it a very snowy season.  Total snow in 1966-67 was 5th highest on record.

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51 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

To my earlier point, here's some data.  Obviously the definition/cutoff of an "elite" snowfall winter has some subjectivity, but taking a look at the top 10 snowiest for Chicago, 9 out of 10 had high single digit or double digit snowfall totals by December 15.  The one that didn't was 1966-67, which only had 3.0" by December 15, and it took the #1 snowstorm of all-time in January 1967 to be in the mix to make it a very snowy season.  Total snow in 1966-67 was 5th highest on record.

How much snow did Chicago have last year on January 10, and what was the final season total?  As I recall folks were posting we were going to set all time futility records in mid January and I think that idea got squelched pronto. Don't have the time to look up last year but I'd love to see how the back half played out, and I know December was a disaster. I'm hoping for a nice turn around mid month this season.

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44 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Lol. It was a good winter outside of the late Feb torch. Deep snow in mid Feb. Perfect snowy christmas season. 

Obviously we have different criteria to what accounts for a good winter. You're okay with settling with northwest flow and garbage clippers like the current pattern, meanwhile I'd rather roll the dice and get the southern stream and gulf open for business. I'll take warm and potentially wet over dry, high ratio 2-4 inchers.

 

Most models have something in the dec 4-6 timeframe. The key will be to have a somewhat strong clipper drop down to push the jet stream further south so the next storm in line can dig south a bit. The gfs does this, while the euro keeps the clippers weaker, making the next big storm most likely a rainer for most of the midwest.

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12 minutes ago, Baum said:

How much snow did Chicago have last year on January 10, and what was the final season total?  As I recall folks were posting we were going to set all time futility records in mid January and I think that idea got squelched pronto. Don't have the time to look up last year but I'd love to see how the back half played out, and I know December was a disaster. I'm hoping for a nice turn around mid month this season.

Season total was 5.4" on January 10.  Ended up with 48.8", so it was a tremendous rally.

Obviously the odds of a top tier snow season in any given year are pretty low to begin with.  But if you're sitting at a couple inches in mid December or single digits well into January in Chicago... good luck ending up with 70 or 80 inches. 

Still early to be seriously discussing this stuff anyway.  I have hope that December won't be a total disaster.

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