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Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall


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There are then hints of a
building western Atlantic ridge possibly impacting our weather late
in the week.

 


A warm front will work from southwest to northeast through our area
on Tuesday. Appears the greatest chances for showers and some
thunder will occur along and east of the warm front, which will
place the best chances for precipitation across areas just south of
Lake Ontario, the Finger Lakes and points east. With our region
solidly in the warm sector by afternoon (especially areas from the
Finger Lakes westward), there will be a more summer-like feel to the
air with much of the lower terrain south of Lake Ontario topping off
in the lower to even possibly some mid 80s. North Country doesn`t
really get solidly into the warm sector til late in the day. This
combined possible chances for lingering precip, highs will remain in
the 70s.

Majority of guidance in agreement with southern fringe of primary
upper level trough and associated cold front impacting the Northeast
Wednesday (possibly lingering through the end of the week...read on
for details). Latest guidance package has the ECMWF/Canadian going
back more with the idea of the northwestern periphery of a
strengthening western Atlantic ridge building northwest either into
or just south of our region. Meanwhile the GFS is a bit further
south with the track of the upper level trough and hence keeps the
western Atlantic ridge further to the south. These two different
scenarios lend to large differences in the outcome of our sensible
weather. The one thing that does appear that will happen is a good
bet there will be some showers and possibly some storms during this
timeframe. Otherwise, the ECMWF/Canadian solution would offer the
surface cold front either stalling over or just northwest of our
forecast area, while the GFS would have the boundary pushing
completely through the area. Here in the lies the dilemma for the
second half of the week; if the front hangs up over our area, it
will remain warmer with chances for precipitation, while if it
pushes south of our region, cooler and drier weather would be in the
cards.
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Surprised to see a STF just for some showers lol It got dark out real quick though..

The short term forecast for the eastern Lake Ontario region,
including Oswego, Watertown, and Lowville.

While the vast majority of time through early evening will
feature partly cloudy skies...a couple of brief passing showers
will be possible through 7 PM. Temperatures during this time
period will generally be in the upper 60s.

WUNIDS_map - 2021-09-10T181532.334.gif

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Severe thunderstorms are possible later Sunday into Sunday night.
Cold front tied to sharp shortwave trough crossing Quebec settles
across Lake Ontario and North Country through Sunday afternoon
before dropping to NY/PA border by daybreak Monday. Elevated
instability upstream over central Great Lakes and and lingering low-
level jet could support a few showers or thunderstorms in the
morning western NY to the North Country. After this activity,
soundings south of the front still looked capped above H85, so not
sure extent of convection in the afternoon even during peak heating.
Best chances will be closer to the approaching front, Lake Ontario
to the North Country. Ample shear and sufficient instability to
support stronger storm in these areas. Breezy and more humid
day with highs upper 70s to lower 80s.

Signal remains that stronger shortwave trough approaches lower Great
Lakes late Sunday into Sunday evening. Capping still there ahead of
this, but very strong effective shear 40-50 kts and MLCAPES up to
500J/kg south of front may result in some strong thunderstorms
crossing region especially Sunday evening. Exact latitude of the
primary track of storms Sunday night still in question, but would
think somewhere closer to front but also toward gradient of highest
instability. Right now that zone would center from WNY to the Finger
Lakes. Low-level shear over 20 kts and PWATS over 1.75 inches point
to gusty winds and heavy rain as primary hazards from the storms.
SPC has placed our area in marginal risk for severe. Most areas stay
a couple degrees within 60 for low temperatures
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Surface cold front now pushing into upper Michigan will slide
southeast toward the area tonight. Strong low level jet of 40 to 50
knots will move across the region ahead of the front maintaining at
least some of the gusty conditions. Band of showers and perhaps a
few thunderstorms ahead of the front will begin to move into the
Saint Lawrence Valley, Lake Ontario and the North Country after
midnight.

The cold front will settle southeast into the area and stall
generally west- ast across New York State Sunday. This boundary
will set the stage for possible severe thunderstorms starting
as early as late Sunday afternoon.

Early in the day, some elevated instability along with the presence
of a strong low level jet could lead to some scattered showers
and possible isolated thunderstorms. Later Sunday afternoon,
favorable shear profiles and sufficient will support the
potenial for strong to severe thunderstorms especially closer to
the frontal boundary. Sunday will be a breezy and more humid
day with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

 

Severe storm threat continues moving into early Sunday night as main
forcing from the shortwave spreads eastward and rides along the
frontal boundary. Weak capping still in place ahead of this feature,
but enhanced westerlies aloft with strong unidirectional shear 40-50
kts and MUCAPES up to 1000J/kg south of front may give the continued
organization needed to bring a round of moderate to strong storms
across the area. Current thinking is the highest chances will be
along and south of the I-90 corridor where SPC has placed the area
under a Slight Risk of severe weather, with a Marginal Risk
northward into Lake Ontario. Low-level shear over 20 kts and PWATS
over 1.75 inches point to gusty winds and heavy rain as primary
hazards from the storms. Due to uncertainty in the convective
evolution of the potential system, will cap PoPs just shy of
categorical for the first half of Sunday night. Otherwise, most
areas will settle a few degrees on either side of 60 for overnight
lows.

day2otlk_1730 (4).gif

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1 hour ago, brentrich said:

When are we ever going to see near normal or below temperature. Outlook 6-10 and 8-14 days continue to show much above average. I'm tired of it already and I'm so ready for fall. 

Above normal, above normal, above normal... it's disgusting how warm we seem to have gotten over the past 5 years. Breaking heat records left and right  And I don't think it's just a temporary blip. Gah.

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1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

Above normal, above normal, above normal... it's disgusting how warm we seem to have gotten over the past 5 years. Breaking heat records left and right  And I don't think it's just a temporary blip. Gah.

Let's hope we don't have that kind of pattern upcoming winter. Finger Crossed. 

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4 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Yeah and we have beared the brunt of it lol At least in June/august, eastern great lakes..

mtdpt_northeast_aug21.png

mtdpt_northeast_jun21.png

August was pretty nasty here. I remember a weekday on campus that was pushing 90. Very warm for a town right on the lake, 2 months after the solar maximum. 

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4 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

August was pretty nasty here. I remember a weekday on campus that was pushing 90. Very warm for a town right on the lake, 2 months after the solar maximum. 

Honestly feels like climo has pushed normals a few degrees latitude north where our new normal is about Columbus OH climo. So yeah…look for plenty of 40-50 degree temps this winter with any snow we get melting in a day or 2. 

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2 hours ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Honestly feels like climo has pushed normals a few degrees latitude north where our new normal is about Columbus OH climo. So yeah…look for plenty of 40-50 degree temps this winter with any snow we get melting in a day or 2. 

Melt in a day or two, you say? Those are rookie numbers. Southern winters can melt an overnight snow cover in 2 hours or less.

In all seriousness, these new climate normals are depressing for anyone who loves winter. Part of it is what it is... but some of it can be helped. To that I will not go further as you all know what I'm implying, and I'm not trying to stir the pot. 

I'm happy to now be almost as far north in the contiguous U.S. as I imagined I could be. I want to witness the Köppen continental cold climate before it gradually vanishes from the lower 48. Maybe I'm being dramatic, but it sure seems to me these drastic changes are happening right in front of our eyes. It doesn't take a lifetime to witness the change.

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6 hours ago, Blue Moon said:

Melt in a day or two, you say? Those are rookie numbers. Southern winters can melt an overnight snow cover in 2 hours or less.

In all seriousness, these new climate normals are depressing for anyone who loves winter. Part of it is what it is... but some of it can be helped. To that I will not go further as you all know what I'm implying, and I'm not trying to stir the pot. 

I'm happy to now be almost as far north in the contiguous U.S. as I imagined I could be. I want to witness the Köppen continental cold climate before it gradually vanishes from the lower 48. Maybe I'm being dramatic, but it sure seems to me these drastic changes are happening right in front of our eyes. It doesn't take a lifetime to witness the change.

I have tried various latitudes. ELEVATION us going to be the key in trying to find any semblance of actual cooler weather... Anywhere that's flat involves heat tunneling and RUSHING north from the southern latitudes. This is true moreso now than ever. The amount of times the northern U.S. has been hotter than the south this summer is crazy. Latitude does not seem to be as significant as it used to be.

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Nice potential soaking overnight.. Models have trended a little north of the NWS/WPC thinking..

There is still uncertainty with regard to latitude of track of
complex. Initially was banking on something away from GFS idea,
instead mainly along and south of the Thruway between Buffalo and
Syracuse near the cold front but also on northern gradient of
highest MLCAPES. However, most of the 06z models have trended
farther north though recent HRRR still is a bit farther to the
south toward higher instability. Since the upstream convection
driving this shortwave has not developed yet, looks to be more
of a nowcasting situation this afternoon. SPC continues the
slight risk for severe. After convection this evening, probably
will be some subsidence and thus lower pops. Some hints of
another shortwave approaching western NY toward daybreak Monday,
so will have slight chances coming back in pretty late. Temps
not as warm as tonight, but most spots will be close to 60. May
see fog form form the earlier rain, especially if there is
partial clearing.

 

qpf_acc.us_ne - 2021-09-12T115513.719.png

qpf_acc.us_ne - 2021-09-12T120635.598.png

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1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Nice potential soaking overnight.. Models have trended a little north of the NWS/WPC thinking..

There is still uncertainty with regard to latitude of track of
complex. Initially was banking on something away from GFS idea,
instead mainly along and south of the Thruway between Buffalo and
Syracuse near the cold front but also on northern gradient of
highest MLCAPES. However, most of the 06z models have trended
farther north though recent HRRR still is a bit farther to the
south toward higher instability. Since the upstream convection
driving this shortwave has not developed yet, looks to be more
of a nowcasting situation this afternoon. SPC continues the
slight risk for severe. After convection this evening, probably
will be some subsidence and thus lower pops. Some hints of
another shortwave approaching western NY toward daybreak Monday,
so will have slight chances coming back in pretty late. Temps
not as warm as tonight, but most spots will be close to 60. May
see fog form form the earlier rain, especially if there is
partial clearing.

 

qpf_acc.us_ne - 2021-09-12T115513.719.png

qpf_acc.us_ne - 2021-09-12T120635.598.png

I’m liking that north trend.

We absolutely positively do not need any more rain down here.

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Front is through as I figured..Winds out of the NW, DPs dropping into the upper 50s/low 60s..Temps in the lower 60s..

Latest from kbuf..

Surface cold front dropping south into the area has reaching just
south of Lake Ontario this afternoon. Associated band of scattered
showers and isolated embedded slowly easing south, but mainly
confined to areas near Lake Ontario northward.

Late this afternoon into early this evening our attention will
continue to focus upstream over the central Great Lakes. Nearly all
the hi-res guidance suggesting a convectively induced shortwave will
track into western New York this evening along the cold front which
will be crawling southward through the area. An area of organized
convection is expected to develop across lower Michigan late
this afternoon and early this evening then track quickly into
western New York along expected instability gradient along and
south of the frontal boundary. Bulk shear value of 50-60 knots
across the area will bring a threat for damaging winds with
perhaps some isolated large hail as this area of convection
races east across the area in the general 8 pm to midnight time
frame. Though the convection will be moving quickly there will
be a risk for locally heavy rainfall with any localized flooding
tied to any training cells that may evolve.
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