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Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall


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3 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

My dad and I golfed every month that year. We did it simply to say we did; the golf wasn’t great in January or February. 
Now that he has dementia and can no longer golf I’m glad we did it. Great memory if nothing else. 

I'm so sorry to read this. I worked around people with dementia and it's heartbreaking. I can remember so vividly the one day a lady's husband came to visit her. He was walking right next to her, she came up to me and said, "Excuse me, sir. Do you know where my husband is?" He was such a loyal and faithful husband to her regardless of her condition. Much peace to you as you interact with your dad in the state that he is in.

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31 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I'm so sorry to read this. I worked around people with dementia and it's heartbreaking. I can remember so vividly the one day a lady's husband came to visit her. He was walking right next to her, she came up to me and said, "Excuse me, sir. Do you know where my husband is?" He was such a loyal and faithful husband to her regardless of her condition. Much peace to you as you interact with your dad in the state that he is in.

Thanks Matt! 

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RGEMs early take on our next big system SUN PM into MON AM.  Seem like these keep getting stronger and stronger every week if this verifies.  Can’t find the post now but someone was saying to keep an eye on the amount of moisture coming out of the GOM and tropics.  Whatever metric he was using showed this unusually massive amount of moisture being pulled up into the US fueling bigger storms.  Was a plausible thought and now seeing this… can see the streamers feeding into that storm.
 

 We’re going to see some kind of massive storm around our area in the next 10 day period.  Pretty good agreement with all the models we see a fairly consistent pattern of a storm system passing every 3-4 days.  Heaps of moisture from the south, cold air slowly building to the north.  The west coast is getting slammed with the atmospheric river thing adding even more juice.  Just need one of the storms to hit a kink and bam.  Maybe early snow?  More like high winds, severe storms, heavy rain.  There’s just too much energy floating across the country for something big not to happen in the next week or two.  

A0D223E8-927F-4E31-AE6B-A79FA7D3C391.gif

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5 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

My dad and I golfed every month that year. We did it simply to say we did; the golf wasn’t great in January or February. 
Now that he has dementia and can no longer golf I’m glad we did it. Great memory if nothing else. 

I'm so sorry bro. My grandpa had dementia for a few years before he passed, it was the saddest thing in the world. It's literally my biggest fear. I'd rather have my body go before my brain did.

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22 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

RGEMs early take on our next big system SUN PM into MON AM.  Seem like these keep getting stronger and stronger every week if this verifies.  Can’t find the post now but someone was saying to keep an eye on the amount of moisture coming out of the GOM and tropics.  Whatever metric he was using showed this unusually massive amount of moisture being pulled up into the US fueling bigger storms.  Was a plausible thought and now seeing this… can see the streamers feeding into that storm.
 

 We’re going to see some kind of massive storm around our area in the next 10 day period.  Pretty good agreement with all the models we see a fairly consistent pattern of a storm system passing every 3-4 days.  Heaps of moisture from the south, cold air slowly building to the north.  The west coast is getting slammed with the atmospheric river thing adding even more juice.  Just need one of the storms to hit a kink and bam.  Maybe early snow?  More like high winds, severe storms, heavy rain.  There’s just too much energy floating across the country for something big not to happen in the next week or two.  

A0D223E8-927F-4E31-AE6B-A79FA7D3C391.gif

That track right there is actually a perfect track for all of upstate during the winter. I agree with a lot of your post. Pattern memory is a thing too in the atmosphere and may continue into the cold months/

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Outside of the warmest urban core of New York City and Long Island, good ol' Sizzlecuse still warmest place in New York right now at 63 degrees. It's incredible, and disgusting. Always leaning warm...We'll have another above average day with warmest temps for the new day coming in overnight...which also seems to be another common thing with the new climate.

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Checking the forecast...even this "cool down" seems muted. It was looking like low 50s for days, but now right back up to 60 on Sunday and then mid to upper 50s...maybe 60s again next week? 

You guys know I love cold. I am honestly discouraged that we can't even get below normal for a few consecutive days. :huh:

So much warmth!!!!

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14 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

My dad and I golfed every month that year. We did it simply to say we did; the golf wasn’t great in January or February. 
Now that he has dementia and can no longer golf I’m glad we did it. Great memory if nothing else. 

I'm sorry to hear about your father's dementia. I'm very happy you made the most of your time with him.

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deep storm system churning over James Bay will remain in place through most of the weekend. This feature will maintain a feed of very cool air in place through the period that will hold our temperatures at below normal levels. Fortunately, this is only the latter half of October. If this were during the heart of winter, this pattern would support significant lake snows.

weatherstory (40).gif

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Scott Hetsko, reiterating a point I’ve been harping on for a while:  He claims we’ve now had 3 winters of less than 100” of snow and that it hasn’t happened since the early 80’s. 
Due! It’s all cyclical. 
Not really based on science but rather the law of averages. Of course a smart person could post the snowfall from the 50’s and really put a hurt on my enthusiasm. 
Either way, it looks like we get a taste in 2 weeks or so. 
So glad to be back and a heartfelt thanks to those of you who sympathized with my dad’s dementia diagnosis. I love this group! 

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The issue with this cool down is we are forecast clouds and showers nearly every day..So while some of the highs are below average, lows are not and keep rising lol Sunday night went from mid 30s to low 40s..

Today was kind of a cheap high of 59° at midnight but most of the day will feature mid-upper 40s.. Currently 49° with on and off weak lake showers..

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During the balance of this period...our attention will turn back to
the synoptic scale as a sharpening baroclinic zone initially sets up
across the Ohio Valley Sunday...then pushes north into the Southern/
Lower Great Lakes Sunday night and Monday in response to a strong
shortwave/attendant area of low pressure rippling northeastward
along the resultant tight thermal gradient. Strong warm advective
lift/isentropic ascent along the baroclinic zone will combine with
plentiful moisture and favorable lower and upper level jet dynamics
(including an impressive coupled upper level jet structure and
strongly diffluent flow aloft) to bring a widespread soaking
rainfall to our region...with this beginning as early as late Sunday
afternoon/early Sunday evening across the Southern Tier...then
overspreading the rest of the area through the balance of the
period. Given all this...have continued the midnight shift`s trend
of raising PoPs... with these now bumped up into the categorical
range for both Sunday night and Monday. At this early juncture...it
appears that we could be looking at a general inch to inch and a
half of rain across much of our area between Sunday night and
Monday...with somewhat lower amounts of a half inch to an inch
across the North Country.

With respect to temperatures...these will generally run near to a
little below average through the period. Expect lows in the mid 30s
to lower 40s Sunday night...highs in the upper 40s to mid 50s on
Sunday...and lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s Sunday night. On
Monday a tighter thermal gradient will likely be in place with our
region bisected by a slow moving surface frontal boundary...with
a rain-cooled northeasterly low level flow on the north side of the
front keeping highs confined to the mid 40s to lower 50s along and
north of the Thruway...while interior portions of the Finger Lakes
and Southern Tier should see readings reach the 55-60 range south of
the boundary.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Two Pacific systems will impact our region this period. The first,
with a surface low just to our southwest Monday Night will continue
the rain across our region...with low clouds and fog shrouding the
higher hilltops. Moist cyclonic flow aloft will maintain clouds
while rain becomes lighter through the night as the warm conveyor
belt and its lift slides towards eastern New York.

Under cold air advection Tuesday rain showers will continue over the
region and likely not until Tuesday Night when drier air follows the
departing upper level low will our region start to dry from west to
east.

While a spot shower or two is possible early Wednesday across
eastern zones, a mid level ridge will pass over our region...with
this ridge separating the two Pacific systems. Dry weather is
expected under this ridge Wednesday and Wednesday Night.

The next Pacific low, this deeper both aloft and at the surface will
bring rain showers back into our region Thursday. As this upper
level low slowly passes across the Great Lakes Thursday and Friday,
periods of rain showers are likely for our region.

Cloud cover will likely keep our minimum temperatures from falling
below normal, while daytime highs will remain near to slightly above
normal this period.
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5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It's scary up there in winter weather.

I've been in the Adirondacks during snowstorms, and I've been on the Tug during storms.

The Dacks don't really scare me.

But I have felt a real visceral fear during heavy lake effect on the tug, especially crossing open areas with the wind howling.

 

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