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Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall


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I think some could struggle to get out of the 40s this weekend into early next week.. Right now the forecast is 50-51 through that period..I think it will also be the end of growing season for some, especially away from the lake..

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Ptype will be mainly rain next weekend, but with H85 temps
flirting with -5c or even -6c at times later in the weekend per
some of the colder guidance, could see some wet snowflakes across
the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario (Sat night and Sun Night)
and possibly even over western NY (Sun night). Trough axis will
begin shifting east next Monday but next system could quickly
bring another chance of rain. Pops were kept in the slight
chance range for now.

Temps will be similar or even cooler to what just occurred with
daytime highs Saturday through Monday only in the 50s and even
staying in the 40s east of Lake Ontario. Nighttime lows for all but
the immediate lake plains (around 40) will drop into the 30s.
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8 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Calling the temperature police!!! 40 at Williamsville, 36 at Lancaster and…drum roll please…46 at KBUF!!! How…

Ran numbers for this morning.. interesting for sure!  Couple things I see...

1.  There was an odd temperature flux at all of the PWS this morning between roughly 5am and 7am.  Stations were all rather flat lined from 12am-5am, but then every station saw a quick rise in temp of roughly 2 degrees around the same time and then quickly had their temperatures crash back down by 2-3 degrees the next hour.  Handful of stations actually set their daily minimums following the temperature crash.  This temperature swing looks like it rolled across the area as there was a delay in a few of the stations showing this rise and fall.  Depending when you saw the temp map this could have shown a larger than reality variance with real time reporting.  I believe this was the result of lake influence.  Radar check from around 6am shows a faint convergence area lifting from the NY shoreline up towards Ontario before drifting back south after suinrise.  Very likely this area of convergence lifted up some of the warmer air over the lake and pushed it across the area bringing a momentary warming as it drifted northward and a rapid cool down as it pushed back south.  I'll see how to post the radar loop.

2.  Regardless of this neat tidbit here when looking just at the 12am-5am time before this added noise, KBUF is still running to dang warm!  Solid 3 degrees above the other stations average from 2am-5am.  These short terms unexplained time frames of higher than average departures during the early morning hours continues to be a thing... temps10-19.png.9cd3724f7cc65e5e0b565edaea2ea5c3.png  

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9 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Ran numbers for this morning.. interesting for sure!  Couple things I see...

1.  There was an odd temperature flux at all of the PWS this morning between roughly 5am and 7am.  Stations were all rather flat lined from 12am-5am, but then every station saw a quick rise in temp of roughly 2 degrees around the same time and then quickly had their temperatures crash back down by 2-3 degrees the next hour.  Handful of stations actually set their daily minimums following the temperature crash.  This temperature swing looks like it rolled across the area as there was a delay in a few of the stations showing this rise and fall.  Depending when you saw the temp map this could have shown a larger than reality variance with real time reporting.  I believe this was the result of lake influence.  Radar check from around 6am shows a faint convergence area lifting from the NY shoreline up towards Ontario before drifting back south after suinrise.  Very likely this area of convergence lifted up some of the warmer air over the lake and pushed it across the area bringing a momentary warming as it drifted northward and a rapid cool down as it pushed back south.  I'll see how to post the radar loop.

2.  Regardless of this neat tidbit here when looking just at the 12am-5am time before this added noise, KBUF is still running to dang warm!  Solid 3 degrees above the other stations average from 2am-5am.  These short terms unexplained time frames of higher than average departures during the early morning hours continues to be a thing... temps10-19.png.9cd3724f7cc65e5e0b565edaea2ea5c3.png  

I listen to the NOAA weather radio in my truck at times of the day, and the Uber interesting part to me is the low at KBUF fir yesterday was 44 deg at 11:43 pm last night! How is it possible that at 6am it was actually warmer? There was a scattering of light frost by my plant in Lancaster which exactly 5 miles east of KBUF. My house 3 miles north of KBUF was at 40 degrees. Just really trying to find the reason for this.

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9 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I listen to the NOAA weather radio in my truck at times of the day, and the Uber interesting part to me is the low at KBUF fir yesterday was 44 deg at 11:43 pm last night! How is it possible that at 6am it was actually warmer? There was a scattering of light frost by my plant in Lancaster which exactly 5 miles east of KBUF. My house 3 miles north of KBUF was at 40 degrees. Just really trying to find the reason for this.

NW wind at sunset to a SW wind at sunrise would explain the temp getting warmer, nothing hugely odd about that.  But I still do feel there is something corrupting the temperate data at KBUF for at least a portion of the over night period.  Need to be mindful of the lake influence right now.  Didn't have as much of an impact last month but now when the area in general is sitting next to a lake that is 25 degrees warmer doesn't take much for some warm air to spill in.  I really think it has a lot to do with the topography of the area.  I know we can see the impacts with the Chautauqua Ridge and Boston Hills and even the Niagara Escarpment on a large scale view of WNY but were talking about going down into like town by town changes in elevation.  Don't even know if or where you could find resources that would have fine detailed maps like this of say just Erie County.      

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