Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall


 Share

Recommended Posts

Ptype will be mainly rain next weekend, but with H85 temps
flirting with -5c or even -6c at times later in the weekend per
some of the colder guidance, could see some wet snowflakes across
the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario (Sat night and Sun Night)
and possibly even over western NY (Sun night). Trough axis will
begin shifting east next Monday but next system could quickly
bring another chance of rain. Pops were kept in the slight
chance range for now.

Temps will be similar or even cooler to what just occurred with
daytime highs Saturday through Monday only in the 50s and even
staying in the 40s east of Lake Ontario. Nighttime lows for all but
the immediate lake plains (around 40) will drop into the 30s.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Calling the temperature police!!! 40 at Williamsville, 36 at Lancaster and…drum roll please…46 at KBUF!!! How…

Ran numbers for this morning.. interesting for sure!  Couple things I see...

1.  There was an odd temperature flux at all of the PWS this morning between roughly 5am and 7am.  Stations were all rather flat lined from 12am-5am, but then every station saw a quick rise in temp of roughly 2 degrees around the same time and then quickly had their temperatures crash back down by 2-3 degrees the next hour.  Handful of stations actually set their daily minimums following the temperature crash.  This temperature swing looks like it rolled across the area as there was a delay in a few of the stations showing this rise and fall.  Depending when you saw the temp map this could have shown a larger than reality variance with real time reporting.  I believe this was the result of lake influence.  Radar check from around 6am shows a faint convergence area lifting from the NY shoreline up towards Ontario before drifting back south after suinrise.  Very likely this area of convergence lifted up some of the warmer air over the lake and pushed it across the area bringing a momentary warming as it drifted northward and a rapid cool down as it pushed back south.  I'll see how to post the radar loop.

2.  Regardless of this neat tidbit here when looking just at the 12am-5am time before this added noise, KBUF is still running to dang warm!  Solid 3 degrees above the other stations average from 2am-5am.  These short terms unexplained time frames of higher than average departures during the early morning hours continues to be a thing... temps10-19.png.9cd3724f7cc65e5e0b565edaea2ea5c3.png  

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Ran numbers for this morning.. interesting for sure!  Couple things I see...

1.  There was an odd temperature flux at all of the PWS this morning between roughly 5am and 7am.  Stations were all rather flat lined from 12am-5am, but then every station saw a quick rise in temp of roughly 2 degrees around the same time and then quickly had their temperatures crash back down by 2-3 degrees the next hour.  Handful of stations actually set their daily minimums following the temperature crash.  This temperature swing looks like it rolled across the area as there was a delay in a few of the stations showing this rise and fall.  Depending when you saw the temp map this could have shown a larger than reality variance with real time reporting.  I believe this was the result of lake influence.  Radar check from around 6am shows a faint convergence area lifting from the NY shoreline up towards Ontario before drifting back south after suinrise.  Very likely this area of convergence lifted up some of the warmer air over the lake and pushed it across the area bringing a momentary warming as it drifted northward and a rapid cool down as it pushed back south.  I'll see how to post the radar loop.

2.  Regardless of this neat tidbit here when looking just at the 12am-5am time before this added noise, KBUF is still running to dang warm!  Solid 3 degrees above the other stations average from 2am-5am.  These short terms unexplained time frames of higher than average departures during the early morning hours continues to be a thing... temps10-19.png.9cd3724f7cc65e5e0b565edaea2ea5c3.png  

I listen to the NOAA weather radio in my truck at times of the day, and the Uber interesting part to me is the low at KBUF fir yesterday was 44 deg at 11:43 pm last night! How is it possible that at 6am it was actually warmer? There was a scattering of light frost by my plant in Lancaster which exactly 5 miles east of KBUF. My house 3 miles north of KBUF was at 40 degrees. Just really trying to find the reason for this.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

I listen to the NOAA weather radio in my truck at times of the day, and the Uber interesting part to me is the low at KBUF fir yesterday was 44 deg at 11:43 pm last night! How is it possible that at 6am it was actually warmer? There was a scattering of light frost by my plant in Lancaster which exactly 5 miles east of KBUF. My house 3 miles north of KBUF was at 40 degrees. Just really trying to find the reason for this.

NW wind at sunset to a SW wind at sunrise would explain the temp getting warmer, nothing hugely odd about that.  But I still do feel there is something corrupting the temperate data at KBUF for at least a portion of the over night period.  Need to be mindful of the lake influence right now.  Didn't have as much of an impact last month but now when the area in general is sitting next to a lake that is 25 degrees warmer doesn't take much for some warm air to spill in.  I really think it has a lot to do with the topography of the area.  I know we can see the impacts with the Chautauqua Ridge and Boston Hills and even the Niagara Escarpment on a large scale view of WNY but were talking about going down into like town by town changes in elevation.  Don't even know if or where you could find resources that would have fine detailed maps like this of say just Erie County.      

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, winter_rules said:

Great!  Oh wait, I don’t use the NWS radar any more because it doesn’t function.

 

Any chance this will address the issues with their new radar display?

Probably doesn’t have to do with their worse than useless interactive software. Just terrible stuff. Whoever ok’d that should be fired. No, tortured. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

It's interesting that DPs are in the upper 30s at KSYR but around 50° at all the local WU stations.. Must be some drier air around there, either way it was a pleasant day, 63° for the high, gusty winds.. Temps starting to drop now..

Unfortunately I think the radar will remain the same lol I use WU and they will be effected as well..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

32 minutes ago, winter_rules said:

Great!  Oh wait, I don’t use the NWS radar any more because it doesn’t function.

 

Any chance this will address the issues with their new radar display?

The crappy user friendliness of the NWS site is all software related and really has nothing to do with the radar itself.  This repair is more of a hardware fix to keep the radar mechanically  functioning.  As far as I know nothing else would be changing.  
 

It is amazing just how much better the “free” radars are compared to the NWS site.  Feed from the same doppler data and it’s just hands down how bad the NWS radar site is.  

2FB1DC74-DCF7-4C46-9C97-00700356C06B.jpeg

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Interesting interactive topographic mapping I found.  Never realized there was a small elevated "plateau" that comes down the 90 corridor and runs right into downtown.  

KBUF ELEVATION MAP2.png

Now you see why the “transition zone” is the transition zone. Lines up exactly with that area of lower elevation.

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...