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Upstate/Eastern New York- Meteorological Fall


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1 minute ago, cny rider said:

 

I wasn't going to mention it but these were two extremely attractive women dressed in skin tight material, and there wasn't even much of it.

They were really good at the yoga though and nobody plunged off the side!

 

You seem a little ‘excited’ by the memory of this story

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2 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Bills game Vs the Chiefs tonight could have done severe weather implications…could be a long night if delays hit.

Pass!  Browsing the mesos looks like quick chance of a storm between 8-9 and then hopefully main storm area stays south of KC.  
OKC looks to get smoked later today.  Lots of chatter about this setup.  At least can watch some storm chasers to kill some time until the game starts.  

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Chances for showers then begin to increase Friday night into
Saturday, as the upstream trough pushes in and cold front works into
and slowly crosses the area. However, there still is some model
timing issues but it does appear that cooler and more seasonable air
will arrive across the Lower Lakes over the weekend. It may even get
cold enough aloft by Sunday to support some lake effect rain showers.

21cc48d9-b706-48ca-832a-f8666fee7bca (1).gif

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14 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

As to my earlier post, it was 1998 Chiefs vs Seahawks October 4th…game was stopped for 54 minutes 3.36” of rain fell during that time between 7-9pm…was a serious situation in the KC metro area…tonight looks no different…

Almost identical setup.  Will depends where that “rain train” line sets up around KC.  

 

8186AAF6-213D-400D-B278-8024AA021A49.jpeg

19905567-6E95-4BED-8599-3F3C87BED194.gif

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Decent amount of precipitation on the euro between the frontal passage and LER. 

A strong upper level trough/surface cold front are progged to cross
western and northcentral NY sometime between later Friday night and
the first half of Saturday night. Strong forcing and ample moisture
will bring the next round of more significant showers to our area,
however due to timing differences between the various guidance
packages, will cap PoPs at High Chc at this time. PoPs will need to
be increased during at least a portion of this timeframe when better
confidence in the exact timing occurs.

Much cooler air filters in later Saturday night into Sunday in the
wake of the cold fropa. A cool, moist cyclonic flow aloft will keep
scattered showers around, with lake effect showers possible downwind
of the Lakes as 850Ts cool to somewhere in the neighborhood of 0C to
+3C. It will also become quite breezy as well.

Well above normal temperatures through the end of the work week,
will trend toward more seasonable readings by the second half of
weekend in the wake of the strong cold fropa.

qpf_acc.us_ne - 2021-10-11T091340.829.png

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55 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Decent amount of precipitation on the euro between the frontal passage and LER. 

A strong upper level trough/surface cold front are progged to cross
western and northcentral NY sometime between later Friday night and
the first half of Saturday night. Strong forcing and ample moisture
will bring the next round of more significant showers to our area,
however due to timing differences between the various guidance
packages, will cap PoPs at High Chc at this time. PoPs will need to
be increased during at least a portion of this timeframe when better
confidence in the exact timing occurs.

Much cooler air filters in later Saturday night into Sunday in the
wake of the cold fropa. A cool, moist cyclonic flow aloft will keep
scattered showers around, with lake effect showers possible downwind
of the Lakes as 850Ts cool to somewhere in the neighborhood of 0C to
+3C. It will also become quite breezy as well.

Well above normal temperatures through the end of the work week,
will trend toward more seasonable readings by the second half of
weekend in the wake of the strong cold fropa.

qpf_acc.us_ne - 2021-10-11T091340.829.png

"Much cooler"

Leads to...

"More seasonable"

Sad...lol

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It's just incredible to me how much the Lake Plains of New York roast in comparison to other locations. 79 degrees in Dunkirk, while on the other end of the county and almost 1,000 feet higher, it's 10 degrees colder at 69 degrees in Jamestown.

When I was in Science class, we learned that every 1000 feet is a 3 degree difference. But now I would say there are several other factors that seem to be contributing to an even bigger difference.

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