Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    16,926
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Yb24
    Newest Member
    Yb24
    Joined

Major Hurricane Grace


Recommended Posts

The GFS is showing a huge precip donut forming around Grace  12hrs before landfall. Likely means rapid intensification up until landfall despite a bit of northerly shear. Possible that it becomes the first major of the season.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Grace has deep convection expanding about its northern semicircle. Recon may find a hurricane again by the time it gets there this morning. It has enough time to undergo some significant intensification today, but it will need to wrap that deeper convection around the southern periphery.
2e2b2d35df5c3bb92abf1816e9073855.gif

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Also, recon found that Grace has reorganized its core and that it is contained within the deepest convection. The convection just hasn't expanded much to the south. Still, Grace is in a more favorable environment than pre Yucatán it seems. Also a mid-level eye feature looks to be forming where recon found the low-level vorticity maximum. Have to watch that closely.e230fbbd789f7eb6c7588fe49e2d25c2.jpg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Impressive convection but the structure is taking on a shape that doesn't look conducive for rapid intensification. At least for now. Unless that improves, despite the cold cloudtop signatures, slow strengthening is on the menu into landfall. Good shot at a at solid Category 2 here.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Grace is beginning to encircle the center with convection.

And right on cue. The last 12 hours up to landfall were the ones that we expected Grace would intensify more aggressively and we are near that threshold. We needed a hurricane that looked like one, and it's taking that look now.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

And right on cue. The last 12 hours up to landfall were the ones that we expected Grace would intensify more aggressively and we are near that threshold. We needed a hurricane that looked like one, and it's taking that look now.
Yeah, Grace has never been graceful with respect to symmetry, much less an eye. That may be about to change.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Scott747 said:

That's what it's going to look like too after landfall once it hits those mountains. The disintegration of Karl was pretty amazing.

Yeah, no cyclone is match to the Sierra Madre. The bigger and meaner, the more dramatic the fall. Only thing is all it's juice is squeezed out, causing mudslides and extensive flooding.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Shear has abated some, to around 10-15 kts. Looks like it gained a bit of latitude during the convective explosion, but not much. Now looks like Tecolutla may be ground zero. If trends continue we can speculate on a major at landfall.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxWatcher007 changed the title to Major Hurricane Grace

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...