donsutherland1 Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 Morning thoughts… Today will be partly cloudy and warmer. A shower is possible in a few places, but most of the region should be dry. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 80s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 84° Newark: 88° Philadelphia: 88° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 81.3°; 15-Year: 81.2° Newark: 30-Year: 82.7°; 15-Year: 82.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 83.9°; 15-Year: 83.6° Heavy rain from the remnants of Ida will likely impact the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions during midweek. A general 2”-4” of rain with locally higher amounts is likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 3 hours ago, bluewave said: It’s the new normal for nearly every summer since 2010 to make the top 10 warmest around the region. The summers from 2010-2013 were soooo much better than this wet yucky muddy mess. Warm yes, truly hot no. This is the tropical weather I despise. We need geoengineering on a massive scale to balance out the excess rainfall here with the drought and pure heat of the west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 80/73 and low level clouds burning off a bit but still parrtly to mostly cloudy. Outside chance of 90 in the hotter spots. More clouds tomorrow but warm and humid continues. Sep Wed (9/1) and Thu (9/2) Ida's remnants enhance front / merge to produce heavy rainfall and then pull down trough/cooler air Fri (9/3) - Mon (9/6). Think we see more 80s than 70s and are closer to normal. On the longer range similarly to late July we ride a 10 day to two lid on warmth/heat and may see a late season warmup towards the 10th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: The summers from 2010-2013 were soooo much better than this wet yucky muddy mess. Warm yes, truly hot no. This is the tropical weather I despise. We need geoengineering on a massive scale to balance out the excess rainfall here with the drought and pure heat of the west. The 2010-2013 summers featured drier heat with more westerly flow. It’s been higher dew point S to SW flow heat since the super El Niño in 2016. LGA had a hotter summer in 2020 than 2010 since North Shore locations are far enough from the sea breeze. JFK needed the westerly flow in 2010 for its hottest summer. Dry heat summer in 2010 with the ridge to our SW Another moist heat summer in 2021 with WAR to our east 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 40th 90 for ewr 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 4 hours ago, bluewave said: The 2010-2013 summers featured drier heat with more westerly flow. It’s been higher dew point S to SW flow heat since the super El Niño in 2016. LGA had a hotter summer in 2020 than 2010 since North Shore locations are far enough from the sea breeze. JFK needed the westerly flow in 2010 for its hottest summer. Dry heat summer in 2010 with the ridge to our SW Another moist heat summer in 2021 with WAR to our east What will it take for us to get back to that amazing pattern of the early 2010s? I noticed EWR was hotter back then too EWR top summers are very similar to JFK. Measuring heat in terms of 90 and 100 degree days is how I like to do it, since number of hot days is how most people remember the summer. I also like the term climate change much more than global warming, since just calling it "warming" is a simplification of the profound changes we are causing to our planet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 6 hours ago, SACRUS said: 80/73 and low level clouds burning off a bit but still parrtly to mostly cloudy. Outside chance of 90 in the hotter spots. More clouds tomorrow but warm and humid continues. Sep Wed (9/1) and Thu (9/2) Ida's remnants enhance front / merge to produce heavy rainfall and then pull down trough/cooler air Fri (9/3) - Mon (9/6). Think we see more 80s than 70s and are closer to normal. On the longer range similarly to late July we ride a 10 day to two lid on warmth/heat and may see a late season warmup towards the 10th. No sign of any tropical activity eh? It sounds like it might be like last year when we had the east coast tropical activity in July and August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 2 hours ago, forkyfork said: 40th 90 for ewr yay the summer can end in peace now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 Chris, it sounds like you think it's going to take another super el nino to get another one of those scorching hot summers around here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 Made it to 85° today...had an isolated shower move to my s earlier knocking temp down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 7 minutes ago, doncat said: Made it to 85° today...had an isolated shower move to my s earlier knocking temp down. did the shower move through right as you hit 85 or would it have gone higher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: did the shower move through right as you hit 85 or would it have gone higher? The rain was just to my s but the clouds and outflow cooled things...yes it was around 2pm so would have gone higher. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 Multiple people struck by lightning in seaside heights NJ. One fatality 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 Finally, a shower here in Garwood NJ - central Union County. Slight bit o thunder. No rain all weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 42 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Multiple people struck by lightning in seaside heights NJ. One fatality Wow, 6 people sent to the hospital including the lifeguard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 29 minutes ago, Dark Star said: Finally, a shower here in Garwood NJ - central Union County. Slight bit o thunder. No rain all weekend. Yeah my first rain since last Monday. Not that we need it with what's coming and what fell last weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 30, 2021 Share Posted August 30, 2021 Rainbow at Rye, NY: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Wow, 6 people sent to the hospital including the lifeguard. Yes. Very sad, 19 year old female i heard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Managed to miss the showers that were nearby today so mtd stays at 9.84". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 8/30 ACY: 92 EWR: 91 New Brnswck: 90 PHL: 90 TTN: 88 MMU: 88 TEB: 87 LGA: 87 BLM: 87 NYC: 85 JFK: 83 ISP: 82 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said: Yeah my first rain since last Monday. Not that we need it with what's coming and what fell last weekend You didn't have any rain Friday into Saturday? Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Temperatures rose well into the 80s today in many parts of the region. Newark reached 90° for the 40th day this year and Baltimore reached 90° for the 50th time this year. Clouds will increase tomorrow ahead of moisture streaming northward from the remnants of IDA. It will be a warm day. Some locations could pick up a shower or thunderstorm. Wednesday into Thursday will be cloudy with heavy rain likely. Much of the region will see a general 2"-4" of rain with local amounts at or above 6". Flash flooding is likely on account of the saturated ground from excessive August rainfall. Overall, September will likely feature near normal to somewhat warmer than normal temperatures in much of the region. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was 0.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 25. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.35°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.47°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely prevail into at least mid-September. Afterward, La Niña conditions could begin to develop. The SOI was +28.22 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.399 today. On August 28 the MJO was in Phase 2 at an amplitude of 1.375 (RMM). The August 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.351 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 77.5° (1.5° above normal). Finally, with the Arctic Oscillation having turned negative, Arctic sea ice extent (JAXA) will likely fall below 5 million square kilometers for the first time this year in tonight's report for August 30. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Don, so 2011-12 was neutral after la nina correct? Hence the awfully low snowfall totals after a quick start in late October. Since this winter will likely be a la nina can we expect it to be much colder than 2011-12 was but still an early snowfall (maybe not October, but perhaps November this time?) Just looking to see if you detected any trends with where fall and winter might be headed now that summer is coming to an end. And perhaps an early end to east coast tropical activity too, just like we saw last year, with no east coast TC after August? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 22 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: You didn't have any rain Friday into Saturday? Weird. Nada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 49 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said: Yes. Very sad, 19 year old female i heard Just a little cell to boot apparently: Meanwhile all the cells missed the Coney Island area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 18 minutes ago, CIK62 said: Just a little cell to boot apparently: Meanwhile all the cells missed the Coney Island area. Yes, isolated severe storm. Im about 30 miles north of there. Was sunny all day 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: Don, so 2011-12 was neutral after la nina correct? Hence the awfully low snowfall totals after a quick start in late October. Since this winter will likely be a la nina can we expect it to be much colder than 2011-12 was but still an early snowfall (maybe not October, but perhaps November this time?) Just looking to see if you detected any trends with where fall and winter might be headed now that summer is coming to an end. And perhaps an early end to east coast tropical activity too, just like we saw last year, with no east coast TC after August? I am not yet confident about the winter. How warm Region 1+2 is relative to Region 3.4 could make a big difference in the winter outcome. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 High for the day yesterday was 90 here. Current temp 72/DP 70/RH 94% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 The last day of August is averaging 81degs.(74/88),or +9. Month to date is 77.5[+1.4]. August should end at 77.6[+1.4]. The Summer(JJA) should end at 75.9[+0.7]. IDA remnants: CMC 2", GFS 5", EURO 6" from Wed. AM to Thurs. PM. Reached 85 here yesterday at 5pm. 75*(90%RH) here at 6am, scattered thin overcast. 80* by 10am. 83* by Noon. 86* by 2pm. 87* at 3:30pm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 31, 2021 Share Posted August 31, 2021 Newark moved into the 2nd warmest August spot with a +3.5 departure. Bridgeport is in 3rd place with only a +1.9 departure. ISP is in 5th place with a +2 departure. So the much warmer 1991-2020 climo makes it possible for some stations to have a top 5 warmest August at only a +2 departure. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of AugClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2005 80.4 0 2 2021 79.9 1 - 2016 79.9 0 3 1988 79.7 0 4 1973 79.6 0 5 2018 79.2 0 - 1993 79.2 0 6 2001 79.0 0 7 2015 78.7 0 8 1995 78.5 0 - 1980 78.5 0 9 2002 77.9 0 10 2020 77.7 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT - Month of AugClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2016 78.4 0 2 2018 77.9 0 3 2021 76.4 1 4 2020 76.3 0 - 2005 76.3 0 5 2015 76.1 0 6 1955 76.0 0 7 1980 75.9 0 8 2001 75.8 0 - 1973 75.8 0 9 2012 75.6 0 - 2003 75.6 0 10 1988 75.5 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of AugClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 1980 77.4 0 2 2016 77.3 0 3 2005 77.0 0 4 2018 76.7 0 5 2021 75.8 1 6 2015 75.7 0 - 1998 75.7 0 7 2001 75.6 0 8 2020 75.3 0 9 1988 75.0 0 10 1969 74.9 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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