radarman Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Just now, weatherwiz said: I think it's going to be a pretty interesting period between 6-11 tonight. I am not very confident in how widespread convection will be but I think we'll see some marginal supercell structures. Would like to see a bit more shear but I think there is room for a brief tornado this evening across northern CT yeah, just clicking on some of the 3km nammy soundings it seems most impressive in a relatively narrow corridor from like Kevin to Ginxy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Random: Found this chart yesterday on microbursts and found it interesting. https://www.weather.gov/media/lmk/soo/pulse_svr_flowchart.pdf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Tomorrow is NW. Might be a little too stable east of Berks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 3 minutes ago, radarman said: yeah, just clicking on some of the 3km nammy soundings it seems most impressive in a relatively narrow corridor from like Kevin to Ginxy yeah there looks to be a very narrow area of wind enhancement...perhaps aided by outflow boundaries from yesterday. I think if we can match yesterday's instability output (which seems plausible) we're going to see some nasty storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There’s a northward moving warm front. It stalls tonight along the pike and moves NW tomorrow as Elsa approaches . There’s a severe threat song that warm front It's just that 99% of these over rollout more than guidance, and take 12 hours longer than said to recover - this lesson is relearned 99% of the times, and is interesting forgotten...with the same percentage of wisdom loss. I realize they are no fun. Because they make us "feel" like we have been excluded from the party by an ugly cop - but... we want our winters. If we didn't get the former, we probably wouldn't cash in on barrier jets/damming and icing interesting ordeals, snow holding on longer this and that. Anyway, I'm talking NE of BAF/CEF ... but because of above, I wouldn't rule out more of CT getting stuck behind the cool side of the cop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Tomorrow is NW. Might be a little too stable east of Berks. Hudson Valley special? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rowdy2x Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I think it's going to be a pretty interesting period between 6-11 tonight. I am not very confident in how widespread convection will be but I think we'll see some marginal supercell structures. Would like to see a bit more shear but I think there is room for a brief tornado this evening across northern CT I agree 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's just that 99% of these over rollout more than guidance, and take 12 hours longer than said to recover - this lesson is relearned 99% of the times, and is interesting forgotten...with the same percentage of wisdom loss. I realize they are no fun. Because they make us "feel" like we have been excluded from the party by an ugly cop - but... we want our winters. If we didn't get the former, we probably wouldn't cash in on barrier jets/damming and icing interesting ordeals, snow holding on longer this and that. Anyway, I'm talking NE of BAF/CEF ... but because of above, I wouldn't rule out more of CT getting stuck behind the cool side of the cop BOX take Thursday... Stationary front draped across the region, with cooler air across northern MA, especially northeast MA with NE winds off the Gulf of ME. As boundary lifts north, warm sector airmass surges back across the region from south to north. However as mid level trough moves across the Great Lakes, combined with stalled frontal boundary and upper level jet streak across southeast Canada, all the ingredients for a Predecessor Rainfall Event (PRE). Although, given how far west best forcing for ascent is located, greatest risk for heavy rain Thu associated with a PRE is across NY state into VT. More showery weather this far east into MA/RI/CT along with some elevated instability near warm front. Thus, low risk of thunder and brief heavy rainfall. Highs 75-80 across CT/RI and southeast MA in the warm sector, 70-75 elsewhere with only upper 60s across northeast MA in the cool sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 along/just southwest of the warm front tomorrow could be quite active. The 6z NAM Bufkit for EWR is actually quite eye opening. the 12z NAM coming out now but this is a massive challenge determining where the boundary stalls Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: Hudson Valley special? Related to track of Elsa too. I could see the SVR risk move east maybe later thursday evening? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: Related to track of Elsa too. I could see the SVR risk move east maybe later thursday evening? There are some hints on that on some of the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 I would welcome some nighttime fireworks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 NAM has a legit tornado threat into SW CT later tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowderBeard Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Might drive up to the Rt. 2 area later on, NAM wants to crush it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said: BOX take Thursday... Stationary front draped across the region, with cooler air across northern MA, especially northeast MA with NE winds off the Gulf of ME. As boundary lifts north, warm sector airmass surges back across the region from south to north. However as mid level trough moves across the Great Lakes, combined with stalled frontal boundary and upper level jet streak across southeast Canada, all the ingredients for a Predecessor Rainfall Event (PRE). Although, given how far west best forcing for ascent is located, greatest risk for heavy rain Thu associated with a PRE is across NY state into VT. More showery weather this far east into MA/RI/CT along with some elevated instability near warm front. Thus, low risk of thunder and brief heavy rainfall. Highs 75-80 across CT/RI and southeast MA in the warm sector, 70-75 elsewhere with only upper 60s across northeast MA in the cool sector. Yeah I get it... I know they are saying that bold ( abv ) "99% of these over rollout more than guidance, and take 12 hours longer than said to recover - this lesson is relearned 99% of the times, and is interesting forgotten...with the same percentage of wisdom loss." It almost strikes me as though the author of NWS' statement is less privy or experienced with the crushing defeat these boundaries overwhelmingly hand human assessment on 'boundaries surging' back through cold dense air. They always win in this debate. The geography of a boundary wall, like the Berks, has a counter pulling force from the NE that pulls the air mass SW because of this. Once that is jammed in...it ain't leaving like NWS seems to ease in thier verbal illustration further above. See those arrows in this annotation are there always? It's an implied restoring for - a non-linear mechanical forcing that when the flow nears constructively, it gets a momentum "goose" that the models seem a little lax on anticipating that forcing - so they rush these return flows back .... The best option is to not have the cool front get that far S-SW in the first place - but that is different. What they are suggesting is the front gets that far SW, then retreats?? Good luck. Same deal different devil 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 17 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: along/just southwest of the warm front tomorrow could be quite active. The 6z NAM Bufkit for EWR is actually quite eye opening. the 12z NAM coming out now but this is a massive challenge determining where the boundary stalls I don't think it is... I think it invariably will end up SW of guidance, and take longer to return/retreat as NWS calls it. This isn't Iowa. We don't flop the back ends of BD loading back out like that. But like I also just said to Kevin, the secret is not getting the front to come that far SW but ... the front exceeding model guidance should be built in as an assumption in my experience. I don't if makes a lot of difference. You're not getting SB CAPE SE of the front either. It's a saturable marsh on either side. It's a matter of whether DPs and low LCL type shit maybe but... this is just a piece of shit ordeal I'd rather it not f-up Friday but oh well... Heat may return next week - different topic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 That is some pretty crazy 0-1km shear tomorrow. It really won't take much CAPE in the lowest 2km for something to spin up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: I don't think it is... I think it invariably will end up SW of guidance, and take longer to return/retreat as NWS calls it. This isn't Iowa. We don't flop the back ends of BD loading back out like that. But like I also just said to Kevin, the secret is not getting the front to come that far SW but ... the front exceeding model guidance should be built in as an assumption in my experience. I don't if makes a lot of difference. You're not getting SB CAPE SE of the front either. It's a saturable marsh on either side. It's a matter of whether DPs and low LCL type shit maybe but... this is just a piece of shit ordeal I'd rather it not f-up Friday but oh well... Heat may return next week - different topic. I think this is a bit different though. I don't think this is a scenario of a cold front passing through and then stalling trying to retreat back north as a warm front. It basically just looks like the cold front stalls (and becomes a stationary front). It's actually a pretty diffuse boundary too so there is a possibility surface heating could contribute to some adjustments of the boundary...similar to what we saw last August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 My brother in law in South Windsor lost their pool yesterday . Just put it in last summer. If you look at radar yesterday there was a definite rotation look right over SW 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Just my unprofessional opinion but I learned long ago not to depend on a warm front moving north… Like a bad ex it’ll hang around and keep things gloomy 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rowdy2x Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 26 minutes ago, PowderBeard said: Might drive up to the Rt. 2 area later on, NAM wants to crush it. Definitely. Between this and the HRRR, I'm looking at Hampshire county for today. Could get nasty. 5/6PM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 my best Tstorms are typically nocturnal via elevated convection. The good stuff out west rarely makes it this far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 SW NH looks interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 I am starting to lean in the direction of tossing the HRRR although not completely...yet. The "not completely yet" is due to the fact that it's been rather consistent in the 6/7-11 PM timeframe with rapid development across SW CT and moving NE. It has been very inconsistent though what happens late afternoon. Big differences too between 3km NAM/HRRR. I'm not a huge 3km NAM fan but I am inclined to believe it may have the best handle on how later today evolves. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 6 minutes ago, weatherwiz said: I am starting to lean in the direction of tossing the HRRR although not completely...yet. The "not completely yet" is due to the fact that it's been rather consistent in the 6/7-11 PM timeframe with rapid development across SW CT and moving NE. It has been very inconsistent though what happens late afternoon. Big differences too between 3km NAM/HRRR. I'm not a huge 3km NAM fan but I am inclined to believe it may have the best handle on how later today evolves. What is your best estimate for timing ? After 8:00 in our area or before 8:00? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: What is your best estimate for timing ? After 8:00 in our area or before 8:00? I'm wagering between 6-8 and then need to watch again later on for another round 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 Instability is a little slow to build south of the pike. I think this might be one of those best shear to the north, best instability to the south situations. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Henry's Weather Posted July 7, 2021 Share Posted July 7, 2021 I guess that's basically always the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 7, 2021 Author Share Posted July 7, 2021 4 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Saw a video from Salem MA showing intense winds. I think yesterday really flew under the radar in here. The amount of storm reports and pix I got was impressive. Salem Arlington Lexington. 911 networks were down in spots. Towns were asking people to not leave their homes. They got it really good up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted July 7, 2021 Author Share Posted July 7, 2021 No way there was a tor in Windsor... It looked all straight line.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now