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2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season Tracking Thread


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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think that one has a good shot to impact land, and the Antilles should definitely be watching. These low latitude lows generally have a much easier trek west. 

As for the US, still too far out..

Gfs keeps correcting south and west

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6 hours ago, yoda said:

00z Euro would definitely suggest a hit nearby if it's Day 10 position were to be correct of soon to be Sam

Yeah it’s a close approach/landfall steering pattern on the operational. Ensembles aren’t there though, and quite honestly the GFS would need to really show the potential to make me trust the euro. 

Watch out for some potential homebrew in early October too. Some weak signals starting to show..

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8 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

So far…expect Sam to add some ACE to the total.

 

In the past you would have been able to recite the names between L and S.. but in recent years there have been so many more depressions being inappropriately upgraded to storms that you get these crazy seasons... 2004-2005 were big seasons.   2020 -2021 is about policy and funding.

I guess more storms mean more money.. 

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32 minutes ago, rclab said:

Good morning W007. Perhaps it’s time to create/introduce us to the Reapers tropical season sibling, The Sweeper. As always …..

That’s a heck of a business idea. I’ve already had the guys in marketing do a mock up.

THE SWEEPER

w4MVYwV.jpg

Pushing tropical cyclones and weenies into the abyss since 1492.

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4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

That’s a heck of a business idea. I’ve already had the guys in marketing do a mock up.

THE SWEEPER

w4MVYwV.jpg

Pushing tropical cyclones and weenies into the abyss since 1492.

Good afternoon W007. As the reapers brother is sweeping them out to sea you may want to invest in a new resort, possibly called the bunker. I may book a niche depending on whether the brothers senior Aunt is working the warm season. As always ….

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On 9/21/2021 at 11:02 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

I expected a somewhat active MDR, but like last season it’s been virtually all slop. Peter overperformed, but did not become a hurricane. Rose was low grade. 

98L is on the horizon with probably the best environment yet of the recent waves/systems and a much lower latitude.

Peak Season Forecast (Actual)
Named Storms:  13 (9)
Hurricanes: 9 (3) 
Major Hurricanes: 5 (2) 

What was once 98L was able to take advantage of the favorable environment, and has now become Major Hurricane Sam. Subtropical Storm Teresa also formed.

As I mentioned before, my named storm forecast has completely decoupled from the hurricane and MH forecast as a lot of slop has formed. Now I am way ahead of where I need to be on named storms, behind on hurricanes, and exactly where I need to be on majors.

Frustrating, but overall the forecast still looks...ok...

Peak Season Forecast (Actual)
Named Storms:  13 (11)
Hurricanes: 9 (4) 
Major Hurricanes: 5 (3) 

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