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May - September Long Range Discussion


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2 hours ago, dailylurker said:

This next 10 days looks cold and miserable. Not good for growing tomatoes. 

Yeah just looked at the latest GFS and a whole lot of blue on its temp departure though at the end there is a bit of red which is good news for someone who has swim practice at the end of May, some years its too cold and we just sort of sit around outside the water. 

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2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I will happily take a week of 60s and low 70s with some rain chances. Pretty much "normal" for early May.

Eff mid to upper 80s and humid. We have 4 months of that crap just ahead.

I agree but it's the lows in the 40's that make a gardener cringe. I'll take mid 50's for lows and highs near 70 all summer lol. Just get rid of those 40's!

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1 minute ago, dailylurker said:

I agree but it's the lows in the 40's that make a gardener cringe. I'll take mid 50's for lows and highs near 70 all summer lol. Just get rid of those 40's!

I get it, but we go through this every year. We had some late frost last year as I recall- I had to cover plants a few times. Also, grain of salt looking at advertised temps on the GFS/GEFS in the LR. It will be on the chilly side for the weekend into early next week- beyond that, I will take the over.

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Late summer heat to build in Northeast after stormy start

The stifling heat of summer may not take hold right away from the Interstate 95 corridor to the shores of the Great Lakes, but that doesn’t mean that air conditioners will be able to take it easy this year.

The first part of the summer will feature frequent thunderstorms across the Northeast, Ohio Valley and Midwest, limiting the potential for long-duration heat waves with temperatures averaging right around normal.

AccuWeather’s long-range forecasters believe that several rounds of stronger storms could sweep across the region, particularly in June and July, in addition to garden variety summer storms that pop up on warm and humid afternoons.

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We are due for a derecho 

A derecho is a complex of intense thunderstorms that unleashes damaging winds over an area extending hundreds of miles. This extreme weather event is sometimes called an "inland hurricane" due to the hurricane-force wind gusts and the way that it appears on radar.

“We are still very nervous about the possibility of derechos developing based on the pattern that we’re forecasting" beginning in early June, Pastelok said.

On Aug. 10, 2020, a particularly strong derecho blasted across Iowa with winds greater than 100 mph. The storms leveled entire fields of crops and caused billions of dollars in damages.

 

 

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12 minutes ago, frd said:

We are due for a derecho 

While I'd certainly like to avoid in the future the widespread power outages and damage we experienced in the June 2012 derecho, that event tops my list of best/most interesting wx phenomena I've experienced since moving to NoVA 30 years ago. The March 3, 2018 sustained high wind event is a close second.

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1 minute ago, vastateofmind said:

While I'd certainly like to avoid in the future the widespread power outages and damage we experienced in the June 2012 derecho, that event tops my list of best/most interesting wx phenomena I've experienced since moving to NoVA 30 years ago. The March 3, 2018 sustained high wind event is a close second.

Here I am still amazed by the record 26 mile tornado on the ground that traveled through Delaware last summer.  The tree damage was extensive and in certain areas extreme. 

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 5/5/2021 at 8:31 AM, vastateofmind said:

While I'd certainly like to avoid in the future the widespread power outages and damage we experienced in the June 2012 derecho, that event tops my list of best/most interesting wx phenomena I've experienced since moving to NoVA 30 years ago. The March 3, 2018 sustained high wind event is a close second.

While we are due for a derecho from a climo perspective (1 every 4 calendar years), the 2012 derecho should not be used as a benchmark for what every event will be like in these parts. The 2008 derecho is more typical for this area:  https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/archive/event.php?date=20080604

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On 5/16/2021 at 9:06 AM, CAPE said:

CFS Summer overview, Fwiw. Check back next week. Might feature a sprawling Bermuda high and east coast drought.

cfs-mon_01_mslpaMean_month_us_1.png

 

cfs-mon_01_apcpna_multimonth_us_1.png

In a week it will either show scorching heat and drought or well below with rain forest precip amounts

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18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Latest runs have shifted our area to anomalously dry lol.

I make a good bit of sport with the CFS, and for good reason. I just don’t think long range weather forecasting even qualifies to be called science. It’s really just dart throwing. Yeah sooner or later you’ll hit a triple 20 but you’re gonna hit the wall sometimes too.

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  • 2 weeks later...

Fwiw at this juncture, ENSO neutral conditions look to persist through Fall, and are favored to continue into winter. Not that it matters that much anymore lol. The ground truth differences between Nino-Nina-Neutral in winter are pretty ambiguous the last 5-6 years for the MA, east of the highlands. Exception being Mount PSU ofc.

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