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April 20-21 late season snow potential


Hoosier
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1 minute ago, Snownado said:

I absolutely think the optional should have been used for such a rare, historical event the likes of which we may never see again. If this was January, of course I dont think an advisory should have been issued. But it's almost May !

It was borderline. I don’t have issues with the choice. I suspect that if the heaviest accumulations were likely near rush hour, then there would have been an advisory. 

Either way, this is a really special event.

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I absolutely think the optional should have been used for such a rare, historical event the likes of which we may never see again. If this was January, of course I dont think an advisory should have been issued. But it's almost May !

Again, headlines are not issued because an event is historic or record breaking. They are issued based on set criteria and impacts. In this case, impact level was basically non-zero level.

take off the goggles.


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2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


Again, headlines are not issued because an event is historic or record breaking. They are issued based on set criteria and impacts. In this case, impact level was basically non-zero level.

take off the goggles.


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I personally think the criteria should change when it occurs during a rare time of the year. Basically a 2" snow in Indy on April 20 is way more rare than a 2" snow in Atlanta on January 20 and yet Atlanta would have a warning with 2".

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It is kind of funny that a late season/historic snowfall doesn't get an advisory, but when you think about what goes into the decision, it makes sense why they didn't issue one.  Is what is happening tonight different on the roads than what a rain would be?  Are there any reports of slick roads/accidents in central Indiana?

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I personally think the criteria should change when it occurs during a rare time of the year. Basically a 2" snow in Indy on April 20 is way more rare than a 2" snow in Atlanta on January 20 and yet Atlanta would have a warning with 2".

That is a totally different argument, given IND averages much more snow than ATL does.


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1 minute ago, Hoosier said:

It is kind of funny that a late season/historic snowfall doesn't get an advisory, but when you think about what goes into the decision, it makes sense why they didn't issue one.  Is what is happening tonight different on the roads than what a rain would be?  Are there any reports of slick roads/accidents in central Indiana?

I'm from Georgia and I've seen plenty of Winter Storm Warnings when the roads were just wet.

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1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:


That is a totally different argument, given IND averages much more snow than ATL does.


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Yeah but IND averages basically 0" this time of year, same as ATL for April. I just think their criteria should be different in April or May than it would be in the middle of winter.

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Yeah but IND averages basically 0" this time of year, same as ATL for April. I just think their criteria should be different in April or May than it would be in the middle of winter.

If there were noteworthy road impacts, the case would be more defensible. Any snow higher than a trace today would technically be historic, no? The record for the date was T so if it merely set the new record at 0.1", that warrants an advisory?    

 

 

From the IND Evening Update AFD:

"Road impacts appear to be minimal at this time, with the majority of the accumulations occurring on grassy areas."

 

There's really no need for further debate on it, with no real travel impacts, advisories are typically not issued. Certainly some gray area and the product has been more commonly issued for sub-advisory criteria impact-based reasons in recent years, but this event doesn't hit that bar in the Indy area, regardless of the historic nature of the snowfall.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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It takes a lot for snow to impact the roads at this time of year.  If you're thinking that the roads will just be wet and thus you don't issue an advisory before the event, then you better be hyper vigilant and be ready to adjust quickly if the situation changes.  We saw one of these go the other way in Illinois on 4/14/2019.  No advisory ahead of time, the roads went to shit and there was a late pull of the trigger. 

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1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said:

If there were noteworthy road impacts, the case would be more defensible. Any snow higher than a trace today would technically be historic, no? The record for the date was T so if it merely set the new record at 0.1", that warrants an advisory?

 

From the IND Evening Update AFD:

"Road impacts appear to be minimal at this time, with the majority of the accumulations occurring on grassy areas."

 

There's really no need for further debate on it, with no real travel impacts, advisories are typically not issued. Certainly some gray area and the product has been more commonly issued for sub-advisory criteria impact-based reasons in recent years, but this event doesn't hit that bar, regardless of historic nature of the snowfall.

 

 

 

Don't you think there will be travel impacts with temps dipping well below freezing tonight ? I imagine there could be quite a few slick spots.

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Don't you think there will be travel impacts with temps dipping well below freezing tonight ? I imagine there could be quite a few slick spots.

Maybe for the southeast part of the CWA? The other aspect that's part of the headline decision in marginal situations is time of day. It's now after midnight down there, which means much less vehicles on the roads. With no impacts to this evening's commute and snow ending well before the morning commute, can't really justify putting an advisory out for that long. 

 

 

The potential for slick spots can certainly be messaged by various means, such as a Special Weather Statement, graphics, social media posts, retweeting INDOT, etc, without putting an advisory out.

 

 

 

 

 

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It takes a lot for snow to impact the roads at this time of year.  If you're thinking that the roads will just be wet and thus you don't issue an advisory before the event, then you better be hyper vigilant and be ready to adjust quickly if the situation changes.  We saw one of these go the other way in Illinois on 4/14/2019.  No advisory ahead of time, the roads went to shit and there was a late pull of the trigger. 
I'll always regret not issuing an advisory on the day shift the afternoon before 4/14/19. Was strongly considering it, but with no buy in from the neighboring offices, opted against it. That was definitely a special case, as it turned out basically every box checked for heavy snow rates and overcoming the warm ground and high sun angle.

I see it as a good mental check now when there's a possible solid late season snow event, knowing what went into that event helps the forecast at a challenging time of year to forecast snowfall.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

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27 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

I'll always regret not issuing an advisory on the day shift the afternoon before 4/14/19. Was strongly considering it, but with no buy in from the neighboring offices, opted against it. That was definitely a special case, as it turned out basically every box checked for heavy snow rates and overcoming the warm ground and high sun angle.

I see it as a good mental check now when there's a possible solid late season snow event, knowing what went into that event helps the forecast at a challenging time of year to forecast snowfall.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

For sure.  Although accumulating snow in mid-April and beyond is seemingly becoming a routine thing in Illinois lately, it has not been a common occurrence over the long haul.  I don't know for sure, but I would guess that many of the forecasters at LOT and surrounding offices rarely, if ever, had to forecast an event like 4/14/19 before.  When there isn't much past experience to fall back on with similarly late in the season sig snowfalls, it doesn't help.  

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1 hour ago, Snownado said:

Yeah but IND averages basically 0" this time of year, same as ATL for April. I just think their criteria should be different in April or May than it would be in the middle of winter.

So what if they change the criteria for April or May. You still need an impact to warrant a headline of any type, and there is nothing noteworthy with regards to travel impacts with this storm. Using the “varied criteria” logic, we would need a “rain advisory” for the spring to alert people of the impact of non-frozen precipitation...

 

I’m not saying that snow in late April, especially at that latitude, isn’t noteworthy; but to say some slop that accumulates on nothing but grass need an advisory is a bit of a stretch.

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I've been in Fl for the last 6 weeks tending to family matters.  Weather wasnt much on my mind.  Imagine my surprise when the plane was landing at 6pm to some snow, not flurries, full on snow!  Wow.  Wife told me on the phone it was just starting to snow when I was boarding, she got me home around 8 and just wow again.  We took a ride around 11 and the country roads were well covered and slick.  Snow stopped here about 12-12:30.  Stuck a ruler in a planter on the back deck it said 4 inches FWIW.  Maple tree limbs that are normally 15 ft above my back deck are literally 2 feet above it.  This is some crazy shitz lol.

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