cheese007 Posted April 4 Share Posted April 4 D3 slight out for the KS/MO/OK area shifting southeast to AR/LA/MS for D4 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 Maybe its just me but the SPC seems to agree with what I suspect that the threat looks to be trending in the wrong direction now for being another worthwhile chase opportunity. But we still got 36-48 hours to go so we will see. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 The Wednesday evening/night threat still looks decent. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 5 Share Posted April 5 Probably going to go out and give tomorrow along the dryline/triple-point in Western KS. Low-level moisture has trended upward a bit in guidance, and all CAMs develop convection along the dryline between 22-00z. Tornado threat is likely fairly minimal due to lack of richer low-level moisture and lingering CINh, but severe weather is quite likely with any sustained, strong updraft given background environment. Would not be totally surprised if a supercell did *try* to produce something around sunset as low-level hodographs will likely be more than sufficient -- 3CAPE is definitely a bit lacking, though, and again the concern for lingering CINh. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 6 Share Posted April 6 On Wednesday, it looks like several severe storms developing along the Mississippi River, with some favorable parameters for tornadoes. At this point, I don't really know if this could be a more serious tornado threat, or perhaps just a modest threat for wind/hail. The 12km NAM and 3km NAM have some significant tornado parameter values of 2 to 5 for northwest Mississippi or southeast Arkansas. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted April 6 Share Posted April 6 While there are very clearly issues with today's setup (eg. lingering CINH and seasonally marginal moisture) 12z CAMs are really hammering the area INVOF the triple point in southwest/central KS this evening for potential isolated supercell development. IF this does actually happen, it could get pretty interesting if the storm were to become surface-based and lower its base a bit as SRH will be quite conducive for low-level mesocyclones. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 7 Author Share Posted April 7 Looks like some potential exists through the end of the week. D3 slight for Friday witth a sig hatch for DFW, 15% contour in AL/FL/GA for D4. Oh and obviously today's enhanced risk Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 Fairly large 10 percent tornado contour for today. Not the most impressive wind profiles but we can probably get numerous weak spin-ups in the warm sector. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TexMexWx Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 2 hours ago, cheese007 said: D3 slight for Friday witth a sig hatch for DFW Been a bit since we had the last billion-dollar DFW hailstorm, no? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 Mesoscale Discussion 0322 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Wed Apr 07 2021 Areas affected...Parts of eastern/northeastern Texas through western Arkansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 071610Z - 071815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The initiation of strong to severe thunderstorms appears possible as early 1-2 PM CDT. This may, at least initially, include discrete supercells, before a squall line tends to evolve, and a risk for tornadoes, one or two of which could be strong. DISCUSSION...Cloud cover is slowing moist, warm sector boundary-layer destabilization, but it appears the air mass is already potentially moderately unstable as the significant upstream short wave trough begins to take on a neutral to negative tilt across the central Great Plains. Downstream of the base of this troughing, beneath increasingly difluent mid/upper flow, considerable model output suggests that erosion of inhibition associated with capping elevated mixed-layer air, coupled with at least some further boundary-layer warming, will allow for the initiation of thunderstorm development as early as 18-19Z. Initially this may be largely discrete, and scattered, but focused within a zone of enhanced low-level convergence along an eastward advancing cold front. With the environment becoming characterized by wind profiles with strong deep-layer shear and sizable, clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, in the presence of a deep moist boundary-layer, it appears conducive to supercells capable of producing tornadoes. This includes potential for a strong tornado or two, though the overall tornado potential could be mitigated somewhat by relatively modest high-level flow and the tendency for upscale convective growth along the cold front through the afternoon. ..Kerr/Hart.. 04/07/2021 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...HGX...FWD...EWX... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TexMexWx Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 70/40 Tornado probabilities on the watch issued just now 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 Now that we are getting into severe season, is anybody else annoyed that the SPC mesoanalysis shows a composite radar much more in the realm of light green than bright orange, for ongoing larger storms? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 A special update to upgrade D3. Don’t see that often. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TexMexWx Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 6 minutes ago, MUWX said: A special update to upgrade D3. Don’t see that often. "AN ENHANCED RISK WAS ADDED TO PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI. A SOUTHERN STREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON FRIDAY ACROSS EAST TEXAS AND LOUISIANA. IN RESPONSE, THE LOW-LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE DURING THE EVENING/EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI. THIS STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD INCREASE THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY AND EARLY MORNING HOURS SATURDAY ACROSS MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 There's was a brief TDS with this couplet Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 Well today looks like an Enhanced Bust. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 7 Share Posted April 7 12 minutes ago, cstrunk said: Well today looks like an Enhanced Bust. Yep, AR activity has mostly remained anemic and disorganized. Not enough heating/more capping than anticipated? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 So if Friday continues to trend in the wrong direction (hopefully not an early morning severe wx outbreak), is this going to be the main thread or is a new thread gonna be made in the SE subforum? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 Possible tornado near Galion/Bonita, LA was earlier reported radar confirmed, although the latest warning statement downgrades to the standard "radar indicated rotation" it still shows as a TORR on GR Level 3. Cell down near Fort Polk, although only severe-warned at the moment, is fairly robust, discrete and might have the best chance of anything yet today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 1 hour ago, cstrunk said: Well today looks like an Enhanced Bust. Down to Slight on the 01Z update. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 1 hour ago, MattPetrulli said: So if Friday continues to trend in the wrong direction (hopefully not an early morning severe wx outbreak), is this going to be the main thread or is a new thread gonna be made in the SE subforum? Well, it still seems like there could be substantial severe weather in OK/TX/AR/LA. So this would be the place for that in my opinion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanLarsen34 Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MUWX Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 Storm of the day at 10:00. Not ideal Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 11 minutes ago, MUWX said: Storm of the day at 10:00. Not ideal Looks like a couple of abortive cycles now but this last one got real close to a significant near Mansura. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 If this cell cycles up again and threatens to produce; it's going to do it right in the worst of the radar hole equidistant from POE, DGX, LIX and LCH. How typical. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 SPC did model disco in the new Day 2... went with the Euro over NAM/GFS and even over the ARW ... but they explained why That's a whale of an enhanced risk too 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormdragonwx Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 Yeah scratching my head on this one. Maybe we will have more clarity later today. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 Latest HRRR, NAM 3K NEST, and GFS don't seem to support the threat around DFW and southward. Mostly seems to develop a MCS in SE OK that bows southeast overnight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 7 hours ago, stormdragonwx said: Yeah scratching my head on this one. Maybe we will have more clarity later today. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html There was apparently quite a bit of correspondence with the NWS branches for this outlook, according to FWD.. Pretty ominous AFD from them, although I'm still not seeing it in the cards for the Metroplex due to capping... 542 FXUS64 KFWD 081058 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 558 AM CDT Thu Apr 8 2021 ...Significant Severe Weather Episode Expected Across Most Of North Texas Into Eastern Central Texas Late Friday Afternoon Into Friday Night... As has been discussed in recent long term discussions the past 24-48 hours, it appears a fairly significant severe weather episode is taking shape for specifically areas east of US-281 in North Texas into our East Texas counties late Friday afternoon into Friday night, specifically the evening hours. Large to very large hail will be the primary concerns to go along with an additional risk for localized damaging winds and possibly a brief tornado across our far eastern counties. First the hail threat. A surface low with a trailing surface dryline to the south will move progressively southeast from NW TX and the Big Country into the Eastern Hill Country and western Central TX by 00z Saturday (or early evening Friday). This will be in response to mid level height falls out in advance of a vigorous shortwave expected to arrive Friday evening. In advance of this feature, the left-exit region of a 110-120 knot upper jet maximum will be moving from the Permian Basin and across SCentTX into SE TX. Impressive low level warm advection from 35-45 low level flow within the 925mb-850mb layer will help to transport moisture-rich air from the TX Coast and nearshore waters north-northeast across areas along and east of I-35 corridor as evidenced by surface dew point temperatures in the mid-upper 60s. Throw in warm spring temperatures well into the 80s across most areas east of the approaching dryline and we`re staring at late day SB/MLCAPE values in excess of 2000 J/KG to go along with VERY STEEP mid level lapse rates between 8-9 deg C/km aloft. Kinematically, this thermodynamic environment will correlate with westerly deep layer shear on the order of 40-45 knots. After correspondence with SPC it was agreed that the European model would be the preferred model on trends with the surface low, cold front, and dryline (not as far east and mixing out surface moisture as much as the GFS and not exhibiting too cool of a bias east of the dryline, thus keeping the area more capped with less convective initiation and/or keep storms strictly "elevated"). South of the surface low and behind the dryline late Friday afternoon, hot temperatures in the lower-mid 90s will correlate with very dry air and breezy west or northwest winds for an elevated wildfire threat south of I-20 and especially along and west of US-281. If not for the latest green up the past month, we`d be likely looking at higher ERC-G values and a more critical wildfire threat. As all these variables and parameters come together, the initially strong capping inversion in the 850mb-700mb layer should lift, moisten, and weaken across much of the area during the evening rush hour for at least isolated to scattered storms to begin developing from the DFW Metro north and east. With the impressive free lift noted in the hail growth zone (-10 to -30 deg C), we are staring at the prospects of seeing intense updrafts aloft with hail similar to what was seen in both the Denton to Wylie and Dallas/Van Alstyne hail events of the past decade when it comes to hail size. Might as well throw in the early April event of 2003 as well as historical analogs from forecast point soundings of several models show events that contained golfball to even baseball or softball size hail. Considering the curved low level profile through 850mb veering and lengthening above that, and a weakening cap from mid afternoon through early evening, discrete supercell tstorms will be possible. I believe the cap should hold most areas during this time for hail to be the main threat and impact, though storms will approach becoming surface-based by early Friday evening ahead of an advancing cold front arriving from OK into North-Central TX. The best bet for damaging winds and perhaps a tornado will be east of the DFW Metroplex and across areas east of Hwy 75 in the north and along and east of I-45 in Central Texas. The one mitigating factor for higher tornado threat will be relatively weak and veering low level 0-1 km flow 5-15 knots, as the strong low level 40 knot+ winds migrate east of our the area by evening. This will shift the greater tornado and damaging wind threat further east toward the Piney Woods/AR-LA-TX east into the Lower MS Valley, which is the eastern half of the newly issued Enhanced Risk from SPC across this region. As we enter the nighttime hours post- sunset, the vigorous mid level shortwave will be tracking toward the LA/TX border region and help draw the strong cold front over OK southward into North Texas through midnight. Previous discrete modes will transform more into a squall line (or linear MCS if you prefer) to track south- southeast from east of US 287/I-35W in North TX through our far eastern counties from mid evening into the early pre-dawn hours. At this time, I expect primarily a damaging wind threat to go along with lower end severe hail in the range of quarter to possible half dollar size with updraft strength not being quite as intense due to interruption from other storms along the line. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherextreme Posted April 8 Share Posted April 8 New update moves the enhanced away from DFW and more eastward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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