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2021 Atlantic Hurricane season


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1 hour ago, Weathersteve said:

 

Yes I agree that certain things should not be named but that doesn't mean it's part of some agenda. 

A lot of weak systems last year did deserve to be named but people brought up that same political talking point.

Also clearly the NHC isn't playing up to people's conspiracies which is why that east of Florida low never got any recognition.

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2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

So whats the reasoning for naming some of the things that shouldn't be? And nhc does it all the time maybe not with this ul off Florida but other things in the north Atlantic over water that wouldn't be sustainable for tropical development.

 

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2 hours ago, Weathersteve said:

I'm surprised there wasn't an X on it. This is what I was talking about btw. This is the type of stuff NHC decideds to name nowadays. How about that yellow X out in the middle of no where too? 

Those yellow x are areas of interest.

Meaning areas to watch. Not naming everyone that appears throughout the tropical season.

Above is a cold core upper low. Nothing tropical... The main low is up at 30-40k feet. With really no "real" mid level( 15-30k feet) or surface based reflection.

 

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1) Nowhere will you ever find data to support classification or naming of an ULL. The sarcasm here is noted, but out of bounds. As far as areas of interest, there are plenty of examples of mid-level systems and cold core upper troughs transitioning to warm core systems. But that is for another discussion.

2) Satellite technology and ever increasing shipping traffic now enable us to recognize and discern warm core and assymetric warm core cyclones that warrant more subtropical classifications than in years past. There is no agenda here except to supercede and fulfill a critical obligation by the TAFB division of the National OCEANIC and Atmospheric Agency. That role is to protect life and property for maritime shipping interests, not just the inhabitants of coastlines. If a system meets the criteria, it gets classified. This is a scientific agency, there are rules, but technology and subsequently guidlines evolve over time.

3) Going to nip this in the bud right here. Any more talk of an agency misleading or lying to fit a political agenda, much less climate change, will be removed. This is not the thread for such discussion.

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3 hours ago, Windspeed said:

1) Nowhere will you ever find data to support classification or naming of an ULL. The sarcasm here is noted, but out of bounds. As far as areas of interest, there are plenty of examples of mid-level systems and cold core upper troughs transitioning to warm core systems. But that is for another discussion.

2) Satellite technology and ever increasing shipping traffic now enable us to recognize and discern warm core and assymetric warm core cyclones that warrant more subtropical classifications than in years past. There is no agenda here except to supercede and fulfill a critical obligation by the TAFB division of the National OCEANIC and Atmospheric Agency. That role is to protect life and property for maritime shipping interests, not just the inhabitants of coastlines. If a system meets the criteria, it gets classified. This is a scientific agency, there are rules, but technology and subsequently guidlines evolve over time.

3) Going to nip this in the bud right here. Any more talk of an agency misleading or lying to fit a political agenda, much less climate change, will be removed. This is not the thread for such discussion.

Thank you

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3 hours ago, Weathersteve said:

Flweather I'm arguing they shouldn't be x'ing those upper lows. But they do.

Who cares about what they're x'ing? All it means is that they're keeping an eye on it and no one even knows except for the hardcore weather nerds who keep track of these things. 

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6 hours ago, Weathersteve said:

Flweather I'm arguing they shouldn't be x'ing those upper lows. But they do.

 

6 hours ago, Weathersteve said:

I'll point out when they do it. They just did it a few days back with that frontal wave out in the middle of nowhere.

 

There are times a ULL can transition. But you got to have a very stagnant and blocky UL flow over a warm tropical environment.

Just like a derecho... I can remember at least one time a derecho dropping from MW to TX,LA  to the GOM.

It got left behind from the main UL flow and days, days later turning into a sloppy lop sided TS.

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2 hours ago, FLweather said:

 

 

There are times a ULL can transition. But you got to have a very stagnant and blocky UL flow over a warm tropical environment.

Just like a derecho... I can remember at least one time a derecho dropping from MW to TX,LA  to the GOM.

It got left behind from the main UL flow and days, days later turning into a sloppy lop sided TS.

Just named a baby thunderstorm here over Gulfport FL. Not much, barely rained with some nice gentle thunder, but worthy of a name. Cooled down the temps by 10 to 15 degrees which is very nice this time of year.

"071721GulfportFL1800"

I think I'll retire that name, it earned it...

 

 

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3 hours ago, Prospero said:

Hmm, I didn't think to be looking here for future development...

image.thumb.png.f464f9f79fd1e3a50dddbb0bc95d086e.png

Doesn't look like anything will come of this, and even if it does it will probably mean a rainy day for Bermuda. 

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I would watch for homegrown development (in GOM or off the coast of eastern US) through the first third of Aug, with limited chance of anything forming in the MDR.  Then I would expect MDR activity to begin picking up by around the third week of Aug. 

However, either type of development would pose higher than usual landfall risks by mid to late Aug based on the projected pattern (similar to the pattern from late Jun to first week of Jul that led to the all-time record heat in the Pacific NW/W. Canada as well as very hot conditions in the ne US).
 

 

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Interesting correlation between anomalously warm waters in the western Atlantic (off east coast of the US) early in the hurricane season and East coast landfalls.  There also may be a correlation with wet Julys in the coastal plain of the northeast US.
 

 

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Looks like a pretty solid structure, better than TD's and TS's I've seen.  Definitely a nowcasting situation since this is way ahead of any of the models.
1546832849_goes16_vis_goes16-meso1(1).thumb.gif.bcd39e61f6fab70a6133fe5c2b79212b.gif
Convection is waning where the more vigorous MLC was located earlier. That may delay progress a bit more in line with modeling. We'll see where it's at during the diurnal maximum tonight. Convection may redevelop.
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