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Bob's Burgers

Severe Event March 25th 2021

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Just now, TexMexWx said:

I literally wasted 15 minutes trying to figure out why this shows up when I try to pull a sounding from the vicinity of a supercell near the MS/AL/TN intersection from your 21z image... why the heck am I getting a GDPS sounding and why the heck is this what it's showing :wacko:

what.jpg

You have to pay for those soundings/pivotal weather plus

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7 minutes ago, Bob's Burgers said:

NSSL WRF is big, big trouble

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That would be several hours of discrete to semi-discrete cells across a very large area. Yikes.

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Just now, Bob's Burgers said:

You have to pay for those soundings/pivotal weather plus

Yeah, I figured cause nothing here seemed right. :lol: Will delete that post because that sounding is absolutely useless lol

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Just now, TexMexWx said:

Yeah, I figured cause nothing here seemed right. :lol: Will delete that post because that sounding is absolutely useless lol

What coordinates are you looking for? 

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21Z SREF tornado ingredients product is somewhat aggressive. We've certainly seen larger spatial and temporal sizes of the 90 contour, but this one is respectable nonetheless.

XJX2l5u.gif

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12 minutes ago, Mrklem10 said:

Check James Spann's Twitter.... 

I grew up watching Spann but I can’t stand him now.  For whatever reason he’s started calling weather enthusiasts “weather nerds, dweebs, dorks, weenies” it’s a bit much.  His climate change denial doesn’t help either.

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I grew up watching Spann but I can’t stand him now.  For whatever reason he’s started calling weather enthusiasts “weather nerds, dweebs, dorks, weenies” it’s a bit much.  His climate change denial doesn’t help either.
He's not saying weenies, etc in a bad way, lol. Hell, we call ourselves that anyway.

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With supercells persisting overnight in the tornado watch in Texas this does not bode well for regions down the road in the southeast.
New watch issued till 4am local time also.

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Anyone want to make predictions for tomorrow basing off of forecast guidance/gut feeling?

I’d personally go with dozens of tornadoes (take that as you will as far as raw #s) and several intense, long-tracking tornadoes.

I think we’ll have a mix between messy and several intense supercells. Sort of like the convective evolution of last week EXCEPT supercells/tornadoes will likely be much more intense. In my mind, even a messier outcome tomorrow still yields quite a few tornadoes, whereas a higher-end solution yields numerous intense tornadoes across a very large area (maybe super-outbreak type stuff??). Altogether think we’ll meet in the middle of the two. This will be a noteworthy day/analog to mention in the future, regardless of what happens (bust or outbreak).

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Just now, jojo762 said:

Anyone want to make predictions for tomorrow basing off of forecast guidance/gut feeling?

I’d personally go with dozens of tornadoes (take that as you will as far as raw #s) and several intense, long-tracking tornadoes.

I think we’ll have a mix between messy and several intense supercells. Sort of like the convective evolution of last week EXCEPT supercells/tornadoes will likely be much more intense. In my mind, even a messier outcome tomorrow still yields quite a few tornadoes, whereas a higher-end solution yields numerous intense tornadoes across a very large area (maybe super-outbreak type stuff??). Altogether think we’ll meet in the middle of the two. This will be a noteworthy day/analog to mention in the future, regardless of what happens (bust or outbreak).

My gut says something similar to last Wednesday. I could be very far off, but with latest hrrr, that’s my guess.

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1 minute ago, jojo762 said:

Anyone want to make predictions for tomorrow basing off of forecast guidance/gut feeling?

I’d personally go with dozens of tornadoes (take that as you will as far as raw #s) and several intense, long-tracking tornadoes.

I think we’ll have a mix between messy and several intense supercells. Sort of like the convective evolution of last week EXCEPT supercells/tornadoes will likely be much more intense. In my mind, even a messier outcome tomorrow still yields quite a few tornadoes, whereas a higher-end solution yields numerous intense tornadoes across a very large area (maybe super-outbreak type stuff??). Altogether think we’ll meet in the middle of the two. This will be a noteworthy day/analog to mention in the future, regardless of what happens (bust or outbreak).

This is exactly what I'm going with.  Maybe with a cursory nod toward something a bit bigger.  Tomorrow just has that "Gonna be a bad day" taste in my mouth, ominous and stark.  I know gut feelings are worth less than the HRRR on a bad day, but still.

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1 minute ago, Wmsptwx said:

My gut says something similar to last Wednesday. I could be very far off, but with latest hrrr, that’s my guess.

Isn’t the latest HRRR back to out break? 

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1 minute ago, Quincy said:

Shawn Milrad tipped us off to the EML showing up via 00z sounding from LZK/Little Rock...

2021032500.72340.skewt.parc.gif

From WNW to ENE.  There's a bit of turning going on.

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7 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Anyone want to make predictions for tomorrow basing off of forecast guidance/gut feeling?

I’d personally go with dozens of tornadoes (take that as you will as far as raw #s) and several intense, long-tracking tornadoes.

I think we’ll have a mix between messy and several intense supercells. Sort of like the convective evolution of last week EXCEPT supercells/tornadoes will likely be much more intense. In my mind, even a messier outcome tomorrow still yields quite a few tornadoes, whereas a higher-end solution yields numerous intense tornadoes across a very large area (maybe super-outbreak type stuff??). Altogether think we’ll meet in the middle of the two. This will be a noteworthy day/analog to mention in the future, regardless of what happens (bust or outbreak).

I’m thinking a storm reports map similar to 4/28/14 with maybe a little more action into TN. Overall pretty aligned with your thinking. Praying for as little loss of life and property as possible. 

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16 minutes ago, vman722 said:

I’m thinking a storm reports map similar to 4/28/14 with maybe a little more action into TN. Overall pretty aligned with your thinking. Praying for as little loss of life and property as possible. 

For reference that day was very prolific... and didn’t get upgraded to a high risk until the 20z update.

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1 hour ago, ATDoel said:

I grew up watching Spann but I can’t stand him now.  For whatever reason he’s started calling weather enthusiasts “weather nerds, dweebs, dorks, weenies” it’s a bit much.  His climate change denial doesn’t help either.

Lolol that's Spann's way of saying/identifying he's 1 of us! He definitely doesn't intend to "degrade" fellow weather enthusiasts!

Very few meteorologists in the US puts forth as much effort as James Spann to personally interact with his followers/fans/viewers. I will say the same about Denis Phillips who happens to work at Tampa Bay's ABC affiliate. Phillips also wears trademark suspenders since being the 1st met to make the call in 2004 that Charley would make the sharp turn to the right, taking it in over Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda instead of coming in as a Cat 4 into Tampa Bay proper. 

Edit to add about Spann's almost unprecedented efforts to engage with his viewers. 

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