BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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20 minutes ago, sferic said:

So where will the NYS sweet spot be?

Probably high terrain of the Adirondacks. Might even be a dud there too at this rate though, who knows. 

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Expect a lull in the precipitation across Western New York late this
afternoon into this evening, with rain showers only occurring mainly
east of Rochester. In the upper levels, sharpening mid-level trough
over western Great Lakes takes on negative tilt as it slides across
lower Great Lakes on Thu. As this occurs, sfc low pressure wave over
southeast US this afternoon will close off and deepen as it lifts
along the Mid Atlantic coast late tonight, then further as it tracks
along the New Enland coast on Thu. System is trending farther east,
so have lowered QPF and resultant snow amounts, as now appears that
secondary wave of precip that is just developing now and that lifts
across the region late tonight will mainly impact Finger Lakes to
eastern Lake Ontario. Even here though, amounts have trended down.
As far as headlines, kept things status quo for now. Certainly
marginal snow amounts expected later tonight Genesee valley with
higher amounts east of there. If trends continue, then could see far
western tier of current headlines being dropped, at least from
the synoptic snow alone tonight.

However, behind the system on Thu there will still be lake enhanced
snow based on soundings which show moisture to H85-H7 and H85 temps
dropping to -10C to -12C and Lake Ontario water temps 41F/+5C. There
is also a hint of re-inforcing trough coming through during the day.
Snow showers on Thu will likely be not as widespread in coverage,
but will still have potential for result in reduced visibility at
times. Whether if the snow misses tonight, the lake enhancement on
Thu would be enough to keep the headline up for Genesee valley is
debatable, but will let later shifts make that call since the
synoptic surge of precip/snow is only just starting to form with
the echoes seen in CONUS radar over southern IL and IN associated
with sharp shortwave rounding the base of the larger scale trough.

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Out of all the epic fails this winter, this one might take the cake. It’s actually an appropriate end to a frustrating season. Lots of lessons learned. As BUF weather stated, you simply cannot trust a storm until it’s within 24 hours. 

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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Looks like we're getting another top 10 warmest month on record. I think we get one nearly every other month.

image.thumb.png.adfb38c2d01f5aa6ce78540a1260c46b.png

Not from upstate NY, but we have the same old story in Pittsburgh these days. But people fail to recognize that there’s a problem, as evidenced by the fact that if we get an unseasonably cold day, even if it comes after 17 days in a row of above normal temperatures, the self-professed comedians are all over the NWS Pittsburgh Facebook page cracking stale and unfunny (and misinformed) “jokes” about global warming.

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21 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Buf just cancelled all headlines outside of Lewis County, and dropped Lewis to a WWA.

The modeling really does suck these days. 

Don’t know if I’ve ever seen a winter storm watch upgraded to a warning then just fully dropped with 12 hours.  
 

ohhh do we have another looker in the works?

 

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6637B0CC-F902-4D02-AB4D-B8CDBBA59DFB.png

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14 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Don’t know if I’ve ever seen a winter storm watch upgraded to a warning then just fully dropped with 12 hours.  
 

ohhh do we have another looker in the works?

 

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6637B0CC-F902-4D02-AB4D-B8CDBBA59DFB.png

this looks so wrong for so many reasons.

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Probably near .25/hr rate at the moment. This band is motoring so probably an inch maybe 2 tops if we can get into some of the yellow stuff for a bit.

Temp is 34 and falling.

520862171_WUNIDS_map(55).gif.13ed3fa27cb6d101b8c585800033bf8f.gif

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0.2 inch on my deck, next to nothing on the grass. The ultimate April Fools joke on us. I hope this is it for snow this season. Today is opening day for all MLB teams!

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Just a coating on the deck this morning, starting to get a little wrap around moisture, mixing with some graupel..

WUNIDS_map - 2021-04-01T100026.425.gif

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It’s funny. Folks in Rochester are a little bemused by the lack of snow. Some are even a tad pissed at the forecast. 
We all knew this was belly up a long time ago. The public takes a long time to absorb that snow is no longer expected but very little time to react to a WSW. The NWS should of never hoisted that watch for Monroe county. 
I think the trends are what need to be watched. The trend was not good for the last 72-84 hours. By 48 hours ago- the writing was on the wall and still, NWS slow walked it back to preserve ‘continuity’. 
IDK. I’m a big fan and think they’re the best forecast in town, but they blew this one

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