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March 17-18 Severe Weather Event


DanLarsen34
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You know how many are saying the threat for violent tornadoes appears to be tempered? Well, I think we’re about to have a long-track, violent tornado with the lone discrete cell southeast of Billingsley. Substantial velocity couplet ramping up and it’s got room to work with. 

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20 hours ago, David Reimer said:

[sarcasm]Since when has SPC 'played it smart' over the last few years? :damage:[/sarcasm]

I do agree with you though. Seems like most of the CAMs are showing a few ways the event could be limited (in the scope of a full-on outbreak). If anything, the last few HRRR runs seem to start the show in Central Alabama by 20Z with discrete storms in a loaded-gun environment. We'll have to see how the late night storms behave (whether its linear garbage or linear mischief). 

Perhaps I wasn't being sarcastic after all. One of those failure modes came to fruition this evening. There were certainly several tornadoes this afternoon in portions of Mississippi and Alabama. A few of them were significant (EF2+). Was today a 'high risk caliper event'? I'm leaning towards no. I don't fault the 06Z forecaster as their small high risk was placed alright. The 45% tornado late this morning and the continuation of the high risk at 01Z? You've got to be freaking kidding me. There's a rain shield with a few lightning strikes blasting across that 01Z high risk. There aren't even any severe storms in the rain shield! I'm afraid today will add a 'crying wolf' syndrome to some residents in those regions. They sure haven't forgotten April 27, 2011 - but we're coming up on the ten year anniversary. Today's tornado probabilities were identical to those on April 27, 2011. I don't expect every high risk to be a generational outbreak, but I sure do expect more than what we got today. One long-track tornado does not verify a 'high risk'. One EF2+ tornado does not verify a high risk (although I bet we do see at least two from this afternoon's activity). 

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1 minute ago, David Reimer said:

Perhaps I wasn't being sarcastic after all. One of those failure modes came to fruition this evening. There were certainly several tornadoes this afternoon in portions of Mississippi and Alabama. A few of them were significant (EF2+). Was today a 'high risk caliper event'? I'm leaning towards no. I don't fault the 06Z forecaster as their small high risk was placed alright. The 45% tornado late this morning and the continuation of the high risk at 01Z? You've got to be freaking kidding me. There's a rain shield with a few lightning strikes blasting across that 01Z high risk. There aren't even any severe storms in the rain shield! I'm afraid today will add a 'crying wolf' syndrome to some residents in those regions. They sure haven't forgotten April 27, 2011 - but we're coming up on the ten year anniversary. Today's tornado probabilities were identical to those on April 27, 2011. I don't expect every high risk to be a generational outbreak, but I sure do expect more than what we got today. One long-track tornado does not verify a 'high risk'. One EF2+ tornado does not verify a high risk (although I bet we do see at least two from this afternoon's activity). 

Exactly! Well said.

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Around Birmingham, it just never felt like things destabilized that much. We never got any sunshine and the temp never got to 70. That afternoon rain and I think the overall clutter of everything really limited this thing from taking off. Still a ways to go so curious to see if things take off again soon. Is it just me or is the main show moving ahead of schedule? 

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2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

latest HRRR and 3K NAM not looking too bad for central NC either.  Primarily one main line of broken cells around 4-5PM.  Just wondering if they aren't handling it properly?

Certainly not seeing anything to justify an upgrade but also think it’s prudent to keep moderate for now.

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15 minutes ago, David Reimer said:

Perhaps I wasn't being sarcastic after all. One of those failure modes came to fruition this evening. There were certainly several tornadoes this afternoon in portions of Mississippi and Alabama. A few of them were significant (EF2+). Was today a 'high risk caliper event'? I'm leaning towards no. I don't fault the 06Z forecaster as their small high risk was placed alright. The 45% tornado late this morning and the continuation of the high risk at 01Z? You've got to be freaking kidding me. There's a rain shield with a few lightning strikes blasting across that 01Z high risk. There aren't even any severe storms in the rain shield! I'm afraid today will add a 'crying wolf' syndrome to some residents in those regions. They sure haven't forgotten April 27, 2011 - but we're coming up on the ten year anniversary. Today's tornado probabilities were identical to those on April 27, 2011. I don't expect every high risk to be a generational outbreak, but I sure do expect more than what we got today. One long-track tornado does not verify a 'high risk'. One EF2+ tornado does not verify a high risk (although I bet we do see at least two from this afternoon's activity). 

There was definitely a lot of tornado potential today that was (fortunately) not realized. Definitely there were a few strong tornadoes, but the ceiling was a lot higher. If today counts as a bust, then it reminds me a little bit (but for different reasons) of May 20, 2019, which also had a 45% hatched tornado risk, but outside of one or two supercells, was a bust.

Tornado season is only just starting.  I’m still concerned about the potential for one (or more) significant tornado outbreaks later this spring.

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7 minutes ago, jrips27 said:

Around Birmingham, it just never felt like things destabilized that much. We never got any sunshine and the temp never got to 70. That afternoon rain and I think the overall clutter of everything really limited this thing from taking off. Still a ways to go so curious to see if things take off again soon. Is it just me or is the main show moving ahead of schedule? 

 

That's what usually happens around here, too, and what keeps us from having a lot of severe storms and tornados instead of maybe one or two very isolated ones. An outbreak is very rare, and the worst case scenario usually doesn't happen. 

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8 minutes ago, jrips27 said:

Around Birmingham, it just never felt like things destabilized that much. We never got any sunshine and the temp never got to 70. That afternoon rain and I think the overall clutter of everything really limited this thing from taking off. Still a ways to go so curious to see if things take off again soon. Is it just me or is the main show moving ahead of schedule? 

Spann said the line is coming though faster than planned. My fear is that we will get walloped in a couple of weeks when not expecting it to make up for this. 

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5 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

latest HRRR and 3K NAM not looking too bad for central NC either.  Primarily one main line of broken cells around 4-5PM.  Just wondering if they aren't handling it properly?

We usually bust low with severe weather like we do with snow around here. The times we have a true outbreak and it meets the severe criteria we're under is rare. Most of the time it is very isolated stuff versus widespread storms and tornadoes. 

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3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

I've had more severe storms the last decade when I'm not under a watch versus when I am. 

Last PDS watch I was under that I can recall didn't even spawn a thunderstorm. Last major severe event here occured during a slight risk 

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10 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

HRRR tries to redevelop stuff just behind the current line in a couple of hours..not sure how much juice will be left for true surface based stuff

 

BMX is cancelling western counties from the Tornado Watch so doesn’t seem like they are buying that. Seems pretty far-fetched. Can’t imagine there being much juice left. 

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