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2021 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread


Hoosier
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Incoming for the Detroit area...

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
MIC093-125-155-131815-
/O.NEW.KDTX.SV.W.0121.210913T1719Z-210913T1815Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
119 PM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southwestern Oakland County in southeastern Michigan...
  Southern Shiawassee County in southeastern Michigan...
  Livingston County in southeastern Michigan...

* Until 215 PM EDT.

* At 119 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Fowlerville,
  moving east at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
           to roofs, siding, and trees.

* This severe thunderstorm will be near...
  Fowlerville around 125 PM EDT.
  Howell, Cohoctah and Oak Grove around 135 PM EDT.
  Hartland and Brighton around 150 PM EDT.
  Milford and South Lyon around 200 PM EDT.
  Novi around 215 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include
Plainfield, Island Lake State Recreation Area, Commerce, New Hudson,
Rose Center, Walled Lake, Conway Township, Parkers Corners, Lakeland
and White Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4283 8436 4280 8392 4278 8392 4278 8375
      4273 8345 4244 8343 4243 8414 4277 8416
      4277 8435
TIME...MOT...LOC 1719Z 281DEG 37KT 4268 8416

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

KDK
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EC dropping the big one with a tornado watch locally quite early:

Tornado Watch

Issued at 12:03 Tuesday 14 September 2021
Summary

Conditions are favourable for the development of severe thunderstorms which may produce tornadoes.

Hazards:
Tornadoes
Large hail up to ping pong ball size
Wind gusts up to 120 km/h
Heavy downpours

Timing: This afternoon and evening.

Discussion: A line of severe thunderstorms is expected to move eastward across the regions this afternoon and into the evening. Some of these storms will likely contain tornadoes.

 

I think they got spooked from last Tuesday with the largest tornado in Ontario history occurring near Kingsbridge-Lucknow (1300 meters wide). For comparison the violent tornadoes of May 31 1985 here were 200 and 600 meters respectively!!

This tornado watch is the largest geographically I've seen too:

 

Largest Tornado Watch Coverage ON Sep 14 2021.jpg

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1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

This fall is show signs of being active severe weather wise. Something we haven't seen in a while 

Not sure why you were weenied but I agree! The lightning tonight alone would’ve been prolific for any mid-July storm, let alone with astronomical fall a week away! 

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The 2nd Tuesday in a row of a tornado warning for Grey-Bruce/Huron county and this time I saw the rotation right at home! In the beginning I wasn't sure if I saw a funnel or just scud but I could briefly see the rotation just like I did in the Plains. It lined up with reports of rotating wall cloud north of Walkerton moving east. Then a new couplet must have formed to the south and OPP in Mount Forest reported a touchdown 30 minutes later around 7:30 pm. I had a lot more lightning and rain than last Tues. No hail for me. 4 waves of storms this evening and I'm up to an astounding 14 storms for the year :wub: This has been so far the most active September I've ever seen for storms and others concur. With all these tornado warnings this is getting insane :twister:.
 
 
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Up to 5% tor at the 13Z. This strong FROPA was on my radar (so to speak) at longer ranges but I admit I kind of tuned it out once it got into Day 4-8 range and SPC said the strongest winds aloft and support for ascent would lag behind the warm sector. I haven't looked at any models myself yet so I can't say if that's changed in some fashion or if they're just hedging their bets.

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17 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

they're not an intelligent bunch there.

Still way better than me at severe weather forecasting (I should hope so because they get paid to do it), but even I find myself scratching my head at more and more of their calls in recent years. When and why did they go so far downhill? Just anecdotally (not looking at any actual verification stats, which will probably prove me wrong, lol), seems like they were better in the 2000s/early 2010s despite the advances in modeling that have been made since then.

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