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2021 Short/Medium Range Severe Thread


Hoosier
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Incoming for the Detroit area...

Severe Thunderstorm Warning
MIC093-125-155-131815-
/O.NEW.KDTX.SV.W.0121.210913T1719Z-210913T1815Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
119 PM EDT Mon Sep 13 2021

The National Weather Service in Detroit/Pontiac has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southwestern Oakland County in southeastern Michigan...
  Southern Shiawassee County in southeastern Michigan...
  Livingston County in southeastern Michigan...

* Until 215 PM EDT.

* At 119 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Fowlerville,
  moving east at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

  SOURCE...Radar indicated.

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage
           to roofs, siding, and trees.

* This severe thunderstorm will be near...
  Fowlerville around 125 PM EDT.
  Howell, Cohoctah and Oak Grove around 135 PM EDT.
  Hartland and Brighton around 150 PM EDT.
  Milford and South Lyon around 200 PM EDT.
  Novi around 215 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include
Plainfield, Island Lake State Recreation Area, Commerce, New Hudson,
Rose Center, Walled Lake, Conway Township, Parkers Corners, Lakeland
and White Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4283 8436 4280 8392 4278 8392 4278 8375
      4273 8345 4244 8343 4243 8414 4277 8416
      4277 8435
TIME...MOT...LOC 1719Z 281DEG 37KT 4268 8416

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

KDK
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EC dropping the big one with a tornado watch locally quite early:

Tornado Watch

Issued at 12:03 Tuesday 14 September 2021
Summary

Conditions are favourable for the development of severe thunderstorms which may produce tornadoes.

Hazards:
Tornadoes
Large hail up to ping pong ball size
Wind gusts up to 120 km/h
Heavy downpours

Timing: This afternoon and evening.

Discussion: A line of severe thunderstorms is expected to move eastward across the regions this afternoon and into the evening. Some of these storms will likely contain tornadoes.

 

I think they got spooked from last Tuesday with the largest tornado in Ontario history occurring near Kingsbridge-Lucknow (1300 meters wide). For comparison the violent tornadoes of May 31 1985 here were 200 and 600 meters respectively!!

This tornado watch is the largest geographically I've seen too:

 

Largest Tornado Watch Coverage ON Sep 14 2021.jpg

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1 hour ago, StormfanaticInd said:

This fall is show signs of being active severe weather wise. Something we haven't seen in a while 

Not sure why you were weenied but I agree! The lightning tonight alone would’ve been prolific for any mid-July storm, let alone with astronomical fall a week away! 

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The 2nd Tuesday in a row of a tornado warning for Grey-Bruce/Huron county and this time I saw the rotation right at home! In the beginning I wasn't sure if I saw a funnel or just scud but I could briefly see the rotation just like I did in the Plains. It lined up with reports of rotating wall cloud north of Walkerton moving east. Then a new couplet must have formed to the south and OPP in Mount Forest reported a touchdown 30 minutes later around 7:30 pm. I had a lot more lightning and rain than last Tues. No hail for me. 4 waves of storms this evening and I'm up to an astounding 14 storms for the year :wub: This has been so far the most active September I've ever seen for storms and others concur. With all these tornado warnings this is getting insane :twister:.
 
 
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Up to 5% tor at the 13Z. This strong FROPA was on my radar (so to speak) at longer ranges but I admit I kind of tuned it out once it got into Day 4-8 range and SPC said the strongest winds aloft and support for ascent would lag behind the warm sector. I haven't looked at any models myself yet so I can't say if that's changed in some fashion or if they're just hedging their bets.

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17 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

they're not an intelligent bunch there.

Still way better than me at severe weather forecasting (I should hope so because they get paid to do it), but even I find myself scratching my head at more and more of their calls in recent years. When and why did they go so far downhill? Just anecdotally (not looking at any actual verification stats, which will probably prove me wrong, lol), seems like they were better in the 2000s/early 2010s despite the advances in modeling that have been made since then.

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  • 3 weeks later...

 

 
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1258 AM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

   Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MID
   MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEYS NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT
   LAKES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong/isolated severe storms -- including potential for hail,
   locally damaging winds, and a couple of tornadoes -- are expected to
   spread from the Mid Mississippi Valley region early,
   north-northeastward into the Upper Great Lakes through the
   evening/overnight hours Monday and into early Tuesday.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper trough digging south-southeastward across California and
   the Great Basin Monday will evolve into a closed low, which is
   expected deepen and turn eastward overnight reaching the
   southwestern Utah vicinity Tuesday morning.  Ahead of this system, a
   negatively tilted short-wave trough will be shifting northeastward
   across the Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys during the
   day, before crossing the Upper Great Lakes region overnight. 
   Meanwhile, ridging will remain in place -- aligned roughly along the
   Appalachians.

   At the surface, a cold front associated with the western U.S. trough
   will sweep across the Great Basin and into the Four Corners states. 
   Meanwhile, a cold front shifting eastward out of the southern Plains
   toward the Mississippi Valley will weaken with time, while an
   associated/weak frontal low advances northeastward from Missouri to
   Wisconsin/Upper Michigan through the period.

   ...Mid Mississippi Valley northward into the Upper Great Lakes...
   Showers and scattered thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at the
   start of the period from western Illinois/Missouri
   south-southwestward to southeastern Texas, ahead of an advancing
   cold front.  A couple of stronger storms ongoing early could pose
   local risk for severe weather.  After a few hours of local/limited
   risk, diurnal heating through late morning and into the afternoon
   will permit sufficient destabilization to allow gradual
   reintensification/redevelopment of storms, from Illinois to the
   Mississippi Delta region, then spreading northward and northeastward
   through the afternoon.  Though flow aloft will remain largely
   south-southwesterly/unidirectional, sufficient speed shear combined
   with weak veering through the lowest 1 km or so suggests that
   locally severe/rotating storms will evolve, with threat for damaging
   wind gusts, along with some hail risk and potential for a couple of
   tornadoes across a relatively broad geographic region.

   A bit more uncertainty exists with northward extent, and into the
   evening hours, into the Great Lakes region.  While ascent will
   spread across this region supporting a continuation of convection
   through the evening and into the overnight hours, less substantial
   instability -- diminishing further in tandem with diurnal cooling --
   suggests that severe risk will wane gradually from late evening
   onward.

   ..Goss.. 10/10/2021
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Tomorrow is kinda interesting.

 

Rapidly progressive triple point could support some highly sheared, relatively low topped supercells with a hail and brief tornado threat. I have an exam at 6:30 so I will not be chasing.

Would expect supercells to be very long and quite skinny based on relatively weak directional shear but exceptional speed shear. Interested to see how that ages.

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4 hours ago, hlcater said:

Tomorrow is kinda interesting.

 

Rapidly progressive triple point could support some highly sheared, relatively low topped supercells with a hail and brief tornado threat. I have an exam at 6:30 so I will not be chasing.

Would expect supercells to be very long and quite skinny based on relatively weak directional shear but exceptional speed shear. Interested to see how that ages.

Meh, threat (such as it is) shifted too far away to be of interest for me. On the initial day 2 outlook the 2% covered most of the southern 1/2 of WI.

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