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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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14 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Curious if that's up at the airport on the hilltop or downtown. Downtown BGM and along 81/17 they seem to get waaaay less.

The KBGM Airport is the official measuring station which is on a 1630ft hill. The city is like 8 miles south and about 900ft ASL, and averages between to 65-70" I believe, which would be about 80-85% of what the airport receives.

The 730ft of extra elevation is definitely the biggest contributing factor to the disparity, but those 8 miles further north also tend to put the airport in a more favorable trajectory down wind of Cayuga Lake under NW Flow LES. Over the course of an average winter, I'd say we get about 6-10" of bonus snow from lake enhancement off Cayuga Lake that the river valley to the south largely misses out on.

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47 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

The KBGM Airport is the official measuring station which is on a 1630ft hill. The city is like 8 miles south and about 900ft ASL, and averages between to 65-70" I believe, which would be about 80-85% of what the airport receives.

The 730ft of extra elevation is definitely the biggest contributing factor to the disparity, but those 8 miles further north also tend to put the airport in a more favorable trajectory down wind of Cayuga Lake under NW Flow LES. Over the course of an average winter, I'd say we get about 6-10" of bonus snow from lake enhancement off Cayuga Lake that the river valley to the south largely misses out on.

Thanks for this great summary of your local climate!

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3 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Gfs misses us with the heaviest off to the south..

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_42 (1).png

12z Gfs is pretty much suppressed during this time frame with just some rain over the SE..

Wether or not winter is over is ytd lol No guarantee we hit on any synoptic systems even though I believe we will be in and out of "colder" weather..

GEFS members through the D9/10 system have several scenarios..

GEFSNE_prec_snens_270 (1).png

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Subject: Planned Major Change to NWS' Hazard Messaging Headlines
 no earlier than calendar year 2024
The NWS will be implementing changes to its hazard messaging 
headlines no earlier than calendar year 2024. This decision is 
based on results of extensive social science research with 
partners and the public, which documented significant confusion 
with current NWS headline terms.
This research indicated that NWS' "Advisory" headlines are 
responsible for a major portion of the confusion. This is 
because the Advisory term itself is misunderstood and its 
meaning is often conflated with that of "Watch." Such confusion 
can lead to a misunderstanding of forecast severity and 
certainty with respect to significant weather and water hazards. 
This, in turn, can adversely impact user preparation for (and 
response to) these hazards.
The major changes are as follows:
- All "Advisory" headlines within what is currently the NWS 
Watch, Warning and Advisory system will be discontinued. Most 
of the current Advisory headlines will be replaced with plain 
language headlines that clearly articulate the nature of the 
hazard. However, these messages will still be equipped with 
computer-readable Valid Time Event Code (VTEC) as they are 
today.
- Exceptions to the transition to plain language will apply to 
Tsunami and Small Craft Advisories. These Advisories will be 
elevated to the Warning level due to the life-threatening

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1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Do they lower the criteria for a warning? Or does a 3"-6"/4"-8" no longer have headlines lol

My questions too. Someone mentioned that it could be due to liability. In some countries, cancellations are directly tied to these products. 
sounds as if they are going to warnings or nothing (other than a vague text product nobody will read). 
Maybe it’ll be as great as their new radar roll-out! Lol. 
Just kidding. They do a good job for the most part. 

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All "Special Weather Statements" (SPS') will be discontinued, 
also in favor of plain language headlines. In addition, these 
converted messages will, for the first time, be equipped with 
computer-readable VTEC and placed in a bulleted "What, Where, 
When, Impacts" format.
The exact language to be used in the plain language headlines 
for each affected hazard is still to be determined. NWS will 
host partner webinars and collect public feedback via on-line 
surveys during 2021 to inform development of plain language 
headlines. Additional Public Information Statements will be 
issued in the coming weeks to announce these feedback 
opportunities.

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3 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Subject: Planned Major Change to NWS' Hazard Messaging Headlines
 no earlier than calendar year 2024
The NWS will be implementing changes to its hazard messaging 
headlines no earlier than calendar year 2024. This decision is 
based on results of extensive social science research with 
partners and the public, which documented significant confusion 
with current NWS headline terms.
This research indicated that NWS' "Advisory" headlines are 
responsible for a major portion of the confusion. This is 
because the Advisory term itself is misunderstood and its 
meaning is often conflated with that of "Watch." Such confusion 
can lead to a misunderstanding of forecast severity and 
certainty with respect to significant weather and water hazards. 
This, in turn, can adversely impact user preparation for (and 
response to) these hazards.
The major changes are as follows:
- All "Advisory" headlines within what is currently the NWS 
Watch, Warning and Advisory system will be discontinued. Most 
of the current Advisory headlines will be replaced with plain 
language headlines that clearly articulate the nature of the 
hazard. However, these messages will still be equipped with 
computer-readable Valid Time Event Code (VTEC) as they are 
today.
- Exceptions to the transition to plain language will apply to 
Tsunami and Small Craft Advisories. These Advisories will be 
elevated to the Warning level due to the life-threatening

It makes sense for places such as here where 3-6" of snow is nothing, but in the south where they are not used to it do they just put up warnings for any chance of snow/ice? 

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51 minutes ago, cny rider said:

If it's that obvious that these changes need to be made why would you wait 3 years to implement?

 

The general public couldn't possibly handle a year with Covid AND a removal of weather advisories...... ;)

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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It makes sense for places such as here where 3-6" of snow is nothing, but in the south where they are not used to it do they just put up warnings for any chance of snow/ice? 

That's pretty much what they do anyway. 

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4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

It makes sense for places such as here where 3-6" of snow is nothing, but in the south where they are not used to it do they just put up warnings for any chance of snow/ice? 

Different zones have different snow thresholds that trigger the warning level based on snowfall in a period of time.  
 

 

583EC6EE-21FB-4F59-9579-8BD7568F0F18.jpeg

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BGM has these numbers for tomorrow night into Saturday, but only "50% chances." This map is the same as their "highest totals" though. BUF's is below that. (Looks like another jackpot for Blizz over to Tully and Cazenovia.)

Expected Snowfall - Official NWS Forecast

StormTotalSnowWeb.png

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I’ve been watching the weather for this next weekend because I’m going skiing in ADK’s. For a solid 3 weeks it’s showed incredible warmth and rain. Not one run has it vacillated. 
It’s comical because we’ve lost a GOOD forecast inside of 6 hours. But this one has been etched in g-d granite. And it will be crap. 
Oh well. We’ll still have a good time. We’ll have to take the focus off of skiing and put it where it should be- on each other. Family time! 

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23 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Another system on the 16th that starts as rain/mix-snow..

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_46 (1).png

That seems to be a prime time period for major snowstorms around here. 2017 we had 2 feet on March 14-15. 

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2 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

I’ve been watching the weather for this next weekend because I’m going skiing in ADK’s. For a solid 3 weeks it’s showed incredible warmth and rain. Not one run has it vacillated. 
It’s comical because we’ve lost a GOOD forecast inside of 6 hours. But this one has been etched in g-d granite. And it will be crap. 
Oh well. We’ll still have a good time. We’ll have to take the focus off of skiing and put it where it should be- on each other. Family time! 

I wouldn't worry, there will be skiing in the dacks till may with the base and still favorable snowmaking conditions. Transient warmth be damned.

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