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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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I’ll believe the warm up when it happens. About a week ago, we were looking at a warm up for now. These backdoor fronts are murder to predict. They sometimes hold on much longer than the models expect. 
Unfortunately, our storm set up has gone to Bermuda. 

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4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I’ll believe the warm up when it happens. About a week ago, we were looking at a warm up for now. These backdoor fronts are murder to predict. They sometimes hold on much longer than the models expect. 
Unfortunately, our storm set up has gone to Bermuda. 

I'm not sure about Rochester but we just had a week of 40s-50s here in Buffalo. 

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36 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'm not sure about Rochester but we just had a week of 40s-50s here in Buffalo. 

50s and 60s next week will be nice. Isnt the full retreat of winter but even if we sneak in another storm it will be pointless (for me) the ground will warm rapidly and even a 4-8" snowfall in March is normally gone within days. 

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Moisture will be confined to the warm front with light snow moving
into the northern Tug Hill region this evening. There should be a
break as the snow moves east before snow moves back across the
entire Tug Hill region as an approaching shortwave trough and
surface trough move south from the Ottawa Valley. Minor
accumulations expected with 1-3 inches possible on the Tug Hill
into Wednesday morning.

Temperatures will continue to increase Wednesday with daytime highs
reaching the upper 30s to low 40s and the low 30s on the Tug Hill.
Weather will remain quiet across Western NY Wednesday morning with
increasing clouds. As the surface trough nears Lake Ontario, forcing
and an increase in moisture will increase the chance for rain and
snow showers across Western NY Wednesday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
An amplifying ridge over the western Conus will encourage a
sharpening longwave trough over eastern Canada and the northeastern
U.S. during this period. This will support temps that will be
solidly below normal...especially during the day.

The only real weather this period will be the passage of an arctic
front Wednesday night. This will generate some snow showers
throughout the region to open this period while setting the stage
for nuisance lake snow showers in the ensuing periods.

Given H85 temps that will average in the minus teens c...the
northwest flow Thursday through Friday night will support some
nuisance lake snow showers...mainly southeast of Lk Ontario.
Otherwise...mainly fair weather can be expected.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The longwave pattern will become progressive during this period with
the western ridge sliding east. This will allow for Pacific modified
air to flood the country...which eventually will lead to a
PRONOUNCED warm up for our region at the end of this forecast
period...and particularly the second half of next week. The mercury
will climb well into the 50s across the western counties by
Tuesday with 60s possible just outside of the scope of this package.

The warm up will be accompanied by mainly dry weather.

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I suppose if we have a big warmup next week, I'd definitely prefer it with that dry forecast. Less mud and more pleasant for enjoying the outdoors. Although I will undoubtedly still be saddened in watching the snow vanish. lol

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15 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

We had one really warm day. A few mildish days. Nearly climo 

Here are the temps for the last week. Definitely warmer in Buffalo then Roc. Not climo though.

Buffalo

Day H   L  Age. Departure

22  38  29  34   +7  
23  36  30  33   +5
24  53  33  43  +15
25  35  28  32   +4  
26  41  22  32   +4  
27  42  31  37   +8
28  49  32  41  +12  

1   49  18  34   +5 

Average Departure: +7.5

Rochester

22  37  28  33  +5  
23  38  30  34  +6  
24  54  27  41  +13  
25  35  24  30  +2  
26  39  23  31  +2  
27  45  30  38  +9  
28  44  26  35  +6

1   46  16  31  +2

Average Departure: +5.63

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13 hours ago, mississaugasnow said:

50s and 60s next week will be nice. Isnt the full retreat of winter but even if we sneak in another storm it will be pointless (for me) the ground will warm rapidly and even a 4-8" snowfall in March is normally gone within days. 

Yup I agree snow is pointless at this point, will just add to the mud. 

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2 hours ago, Geez150 said:

Yup I agree snow is pointless at this point, will just add to the mud. 

We still have a glacier on the ground hiding the inevitable mud underneath.  I’d like to keep it that way for another few weeks, then turn to spring.  If we lose the snow now it will just add several weeks to mud season.  A few inches of fresh snow would make it feel like mid-winter again!

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Per usual, Syracuse has already reached its forecasted high for the day...at 10 am...of 40 degrees. Another day of 10 degrees higher than what's forecasted??

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Slowly climbing here, up to 31°, forecasted upper 30s..

Just wait for the summer when ksyr is hitting 90 daily :PThey definitely like to get a bit toasty lol

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6 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Slowly climbing here, up to 31°, forecasted upper 30s..

Just wait for the summer when ksyr is hitting 90 daily :PThey definitely like to get a bit toasty lol

It's ridiculous. I'm ready to move to one of the hilltops south of Syracuse. :P 

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13 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Onshore flow?

Hrrr doesn't have kbuf moving much today..

sfct.us_ne (35).png

Yeah, I don't think it will last as long as normal though. Most of the ice is gone already. We should have a normal spring.

a1.21061.1737.LakeErie.143.250m.jpg

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21 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Slowly climbing here, up to 31°, forecasted upper 30s..

Just wait for the summer when ksyr is hitting 90 daily :PThey definitely like to get a bit toasty lol

Warm air pushing north quick now lol

Jumped up almost 4° in the last 25 minutes..

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2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Warm air pushing north quick now lol

Jumped up almost 4° in the last 25 minutes..

I stepped outside and faced north. You're welcome. :lmao:

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This week will likely be slightly below normal. Next week above normal. There are hints during 3rd week of March with a pattern change to colder weather, that might be our last shot at a storm.

image.thumb.png.a7475d3a226a13c6873af5018dc14c4a.png

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Lots of grass showing up in spots where the sun hits, but still have a few inches on the ground. Boston still with 18".

Tomorrow will mark 70 straight days of at least 1" on the ground here, way above normal here.

image.png.dd01a03ded43996d3dab9a7755290c17.png

 

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1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Yeah, I don't think it will last as long as normal though. Most of the ice is gone already. We should have a normal spring.

a1.21061.1737.LakeErie.143.250m.jpg

Man if you didn’t just jjnx us all...

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13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Lots of grass showing up in spots where the sun hits, but still have a few inches on the ground. Boston still with 18".

Tomorrow will mark 70 straight days of at least 1" on the ground here, way above normal here.

image.png.dd01a03ded43996d3dab9a7755290c17.png

 

That’s impressive especially during a year where we had such long mild stretches earlier in winter

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40 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Yeah, lots of chatter about the 2nd half of March turning wintry. 

I’ve heard the same, local Mets brought it up as well. Next week looks like the one week and back to wintrier type weather. This is exactly why mud lasts well into April many years and some places to May. I really believe in a lot of ways it’s why people associate us with long winters because springs around her more often than not do not get spring like for good until mid May.

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