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NorthHillsWx

February 18-19 MAJOR Ice Storm Threat

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3 hours ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

GSP back at the wheel this morning...

image.thumb.png.51b690b702ebbd273b054dde2dad8e42.png

 

I live in Iredell but this still looks awfully Conservative compared to even Brad P and anything else I’ve seen. If I’m missing something someone tell me.... but How do they Have Charlotte/Concord at Nothing Zero absolutely nothing? While Others have that area 1/10-1/4” , That doesn’t make sense 

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1 minute ago, wake4est said:

Isn’t ISW criteria .5”+?

For here in Burke county just west of Hickory it’s for 0.25 or more. Right now there calling for 0.25 to 0.40 for my area with some locations getting 0.50 or more.

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1 minute ago, PantherJustin said:

I live in Iredell but this still looks awfully Conservative compared to even Brad P and anything else I’ve seen. If I’m missing something someone tell me.... but How do they Have Charlotte/Concord at Nothing Zero absolutely nothing? While Others have that area 1/10-1/4” , That doesn’t make sense 

Go look at the one they just put out it’s way up and will likely go higher. StormTotalIceWeb.png

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14 minutes ago, wxduncan said:

Go look at the one they just put out it’s way up and will likely go higher. StormTotalIceWeb.png

Still looks a bit soft. But I guess no need to predict An apocalypse just yet as we still have 18hrs to flip flop. (Maybe they’re expecting a correction back NW trend wise slightly)  I don’t see any reason ALL areas Along/ NW of I-85 even in Meck/Cabarrus shouldn’t be 1/4” +. Honestly I’d just put a blanket 1/4 -1/2” Swath over the entire Forecast area in NC (Minus Monroe) no need for specific amounts 

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3 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Still looks a bit soft. But I guess no need to predict An apocalypse just yet as we still have 18hrs to flip flop. I don’t see any reason ALL areas Along/ NW of I-85 even in Meck/Cabarrus shouldn’t be 1/4” +. Honestly I’d just put a blanket 1/4 -1/2” Swath over the entire Forecast area in NC (Minus Monroe) no need for specific amounts 

I agree was reading there discussion the day shift is going to decide who to change over to Ice storm warnings later today. Would not be shocked if the advisory's get upgraded also. Based on the latest guidance from this am the trends continue.

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4 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Meanwhile over off Morehead and Freedom Drive at the other Charlotte station ....:blink:

 

Well I would go with WCNC at least there forecast is going with what GSP is saying and the latest guidance. Also that map there showing is there in house model not actual forecast map like WCNC.

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Most of the 6z suite came in slightly warmer for Charlotte proper and the immediate metro. Or at least the colder/ southward trend seemed to stop. 
 

We shall see.

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Yup. 3k NAM definitely looks a touch warmer at 06z compared to 00z. Retreats the 32 deg line up to NC/VA line during the day Thursday and keeps it there thru Friday... Initialized cold and dry air pretty well here in the Triad depicting about 27/19, I’m sitting at 26.4/18.5 currently.

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11 minutes ago, wxduncan said:

Well I would go with WCNC at least there forecast is going with what GSP is saying and the latest guidance. Also that map there showing is there in house model not actual forecast map like WCNC.

Nah ik. But that’s all I could find for other channels. I wasn’t trying to bash ect. Al is actually pretty cool 

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35 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Nah ik. But that’s all I could find for other channels. I wasn’t trying to bash ect. Al is actually pretty cool 

Oh your fine :) and yeah he is. About to see what WSOCTV said and I will post back.

Update: About the same as WCNC there calling for 0.25 to 0.50.

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Does anyone have ice maps from either/both the 00z and 06z Euro?  I’m wondering if it has backed off any.  The Icon had quite a precip min over the foothills and western Piedmont.  
TW

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30 minutes ago, WSchew said:

3K NAM 2m temp trend loop at 10am Thursday. Hoping that last frame is the start of a new trend

d9e12aca-c923-4503-b033-ba3efd9eacf7.thumb.gif.8c5d61cbf104e7156e49fd9be539d43d.gif

I mean I know some don't want an ICE storm but this winter has sucked and tbh this might be the last winter type storm we get. At least for my area I hope to get close to 0.50 even if that's mean power being out for a bit.  And yes I know that might sound crazy but I stand by it!

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At this point, it's equally important to track dewpoints and cloud cover throughout the day as it is to look at the models. Right now dewpoints are running a degree or two higher than the NWS forecast and some high clouds are moving towards  the piedmont. 

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13 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

At this point, it's equally important to track dewpoints and cloud cover throughout the day as it is to look at the models. Right now dewpoints are running a degree or two higher than the NWS forecast and some high clouds are moving towards  the piedmont. 

Not sure a degree or two matters that much at this point in the piedmont but for fringe areas for sure.  Still a lot of dry air draining down from VA.

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20 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Is Eric Thomas still at WBTV? How are things at WSOC?

Yea. But he’s the Brad P of WBTV. He’s been there my Entire life so he’s Eve/Night guy. Like Udelson I believe at WSOC. Both have been there pretty much my entire life 

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There may be minor tweaks here and there to amounts and area coverage, but at this point it doesn't matter a whole lot.  Everyone in the watch/advisory area should make preparations and just hope for the best.  

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