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Feb 7th discussion/obs


The Iceman
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14 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Mt holly first call:

 

StormTotalSnowWeb1.png

 

Looks good, pretty bullish especially into s jersey. They don't seem to think the rain/snow line progresses past the shore at this time based on that map.

Really don't think that will pan out, way too far S.... 

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1 hour ago, RedSky said:

The pink color should be changed to brown, that is mashed potatoes and gravy rates peeps are going to like that

3-4"/hr

Btw, Herpderps has the crazy banding too. Not to this extreme but already 3-7" on the ground and more to come/still snowing heavily as the run ends.

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Not sure if this was noted, but Winter Storm Watches have been posted for a good chunk of the region:

"

Action Recommended

Make preparations per the instructions

Issued By

Philadelphia - PA, US, National Weather Service

Affected Area

Portions of central, northern and southern New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania, northeast Maryland and northern Delaware

Description

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON...
 
WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of over 5 inches possible. WHERE...Portions of central, northern and southern New Jersey, southeast Pennsylvania, northeast Maryland and northern Delaware.
 
WHEN...From late Saturday night through Sunday afternoon.
 
IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.
 
ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Snow will move in overnight Saturday night from southwest to northeast and may fall heavy for a time into Sunday morning before winding down from west to east by the mid to late afternoon.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation."
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Mesos showing sleet and mix to start right along i95 before rates flip to snow. Different setup, but what did we learn last week about models showing sleet?? Takes longer than modeled to change to snow and may track farther NW than progged based on 700 low placement and orientation. Especially with BL marginal to start, is anyone concerned precip will be wasted along i95 for a chunk Sunday morning?

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Mesos showing sleet and mix to start right along i95 before rates flip to snow. Different setup, but what did we learn last week about models showing sleet?? Takes longer than modeled to change to snow and may track farther NW than progged based on 700 low placement and orientation. Especially with BL marginal to start, is anyone concerned precip will be wasted along i95 for a chunk Sunday morning?

Its not done coming nw either. Icon is full on tuck right into Delaware 

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2 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

Its not done coming nw either. Icon is full on tuck right into Delaware 

With i95 the r/s line. Models have shifted NW yet the fall line continues to be our #1 climo metric with this/these type systems. And fyi the icon is NOT over Delaware it never touches land or even that close tbh once it is N of NC/VA border

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

@Franklin0529 this is not tucked into DE. That is a perfect track I95 N and W. Not saying it can't continue to trend NW but I think I95 N and W is in a good spot right now.

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_14.png

My apologies.  It looked worse earlier in the run. Either way I'm screwed here at the shore. Hard to get snow here. Even with the big storm I got 6" nyc got 17. Un real

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2 minutes ago, Animal said:

First call

wilmingto de(city)  10 inches

my house - 11 inches 

oxford,pa - 7 inchrs

pauls house - 8 incjes

 phl - 10

New hope, pa - 13

Setting yourself up for another bust thread I see. Im j/k and I hope you're close to accurate, I would gladly take. Those numbers will be tough however with the system racing thru the region. GL

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10 minutes ago, Animal said:

First call

wilmingto de(city)  10 inches

my house - 11 inches 

oxford,pa - 7 inchrs

pauls house - 8 incjes

 phl - 10

New hope, pa - 13

My call along I-95 4-7” with isolated 8” amounts includes Northern De NE Md Delaware County Chester County Montgomery County Berks County PHL to Trenton to Allentown. Highest amounts fall line about 20 miles west and NW of I-95 

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1 minute ago, Kevin Reilly said:

My call along I-95 4-7” with isolated 8” amounts includes Northern De NE Md Delaware County Chester County Montgomery County Berks County PHL to Trenton to Allentown. Highest amounts fall line about 20 miles west and NW of I-95 

?

Think the highest will be SE of Philly at this point IMO? NJ...

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52 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Mesos showing sleet and mix to start right along i95 before rates flip to snow. Different setup, but what did we learn last week about models showing sleet?? Takes longer than modeled to change to snow and may track farther NW than progged based on 700 low placement and orientation. Especially with BL marginal to start, is anyone concerned precip will be wasted along i95 for a chunk Sunday morning?

This is an easy answer: yes, I am. Can't speak for others. The biggest thing I've learned being on amwx is that a large number of folks pile onto the extreme bandwagon whenever something is progged to happen. Tornadoes, winter storms, hurricanes. Then a couple runs look bad and everyone screams bloodly murder. Then, almost always, something between "nothing" and "the best possible scenario" happens, everyone vows to be more rational moving forwards, and then apparently get amnesia and repeat the process for the next storm. 

In this case, the basic facts are that the models have objectively been sh*t this winter when it comes to cold, particularly in the PBL. They have consistently, with every storm we've had, suggested a rain snow line farther S&E than what actually happened. This has happened the last several years more generally. In addition, the models clearly didn't have a great handle on this storm until recently. We all thought it was headed out to sea and needed to thread the needle. Welp, it looks like it threaded the needle...it hit the phase with the northern stream. But almost every run of every model so far has moved the sfc low further N. That trend has to stop, soon, or this WILL be an issue for a lot of folks...and I don't think the forum is appreciating that risk adequately. The RPM keeps trending farther N, last I checked it had the heaviest axis up in the LV with philly just getting a couple inches...and 0...nada near the shore. Frankly I think that's more likely than the opposite with a big blast along the corridor, due to the pattern, and the model trend. As of the 00z run, it is now also showing 0" in PHL, and an axis NE to SW near Allentown gets over a foot. Now, that's one model, and I have seen it be **spectacularly** wrong before. Sometimes it picks up on things earlier than other models though. So, carry on looking at the other models. Nevertheless, I'm nervous, that trend has to stop. Otherwise by 12z tomorrow the models will all be tucked in with it. At the end of the day, my objective sense is, this could bust entirely...we could get nothing, or, the rpm could cave and move back south. It's already too late in terms of messaging now if this busts. People expect 3-6. The weenie in me hopes for the best. The meteorologist in me has questions.

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51 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Mesos showing sleet and mix to start right along i95 before rates flip to snow. Different setup, but what did we learn last week about models showing sleet?? Takes longer than modeled to change to snow and may track farther NW than progged based on 700 low placement and orientation. Especially with BL marginal to start, is anyone concerned precip will be wasted along i95 for a chunk Sunday morning?

If there is an elephant in the room here the air mass in place is tepid cold so it's a close call

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