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The Iceman

Feb 7th discussion/obs

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Guidance has brought this one back from the dead at 12z. Almost every model now showing something for the area besides the Canadian suite and nothing really preventing the N ticks to continue. I think this one has a good shot of being a nice quick hitter with 3-6" potential. 3 days out only, time for dedicated storm thread. I hope it isn't the kiss of death :lol: 

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2 hours ago, The Iceman said:

Guidance has brought this one back from the dead at 12z. Almost every model now showing something for the area besides the Canadian suite and nothing really preventing the N ticks to continue. I think this one has a good shot of being a nice quick hitter with 3-6" potential. 3 days out only, time for dedicated storm thread. I hope it isn't the kiss of death :lol: 

Not the kiss of death -- It's just like the transfer of energy we all just experienced and loved in a Miller B!!!!

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Sign me up!

I didnt expect guidance to grab this one and run with it tbh. Went from a thread the needle to a hold my beer event. Im still skeptical given the BL but if rates are to be believed on the NAM (I cant believe I would even suggest such a thing) then this one might actually work. 

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This is the typical event the NAM will juice up, flat waves with coastal fronto. Expect some crazy runs like this. Need the cmc/rgem family to jump on but I’m starting to feel pretty good about a 2-4 3-5 type event 

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Hope it goes exactly as the NAM shows so the south&east crowd can have redemption. I'm like tired of snow I got too much. :oldman:

 

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18z euro really highlights how warm the BL is... If we don't get good rates, it's likely a light rain. This is dynamics or bust.

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17 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

18z euro really highlights how warm the BL is... If we don't get good rates, it's likely a light rain. This is dynamics or bust.

Philly Special 3 years ago tonight...the 00z models will be our friend.

33F

 

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Nam stops the nw trend for now. Definite tick back southeast with a less amplified low. Great hit for the shore areas that got little to nothing this past storm though. Will be interesting to see what the rest of guidance does.

 

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

 

 

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3k is sick. Nw, amped, and aggressive banding. 

I am starting to see a better looking NS vort and some more interaction with both NS and SS vorts with each passing run. This was really close to being a properly timed phasing SECS+.....probably a quick mover regardless but could still drop some thumpage for a while in parts of this region.

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Well CMC was an improvement with 60 hours to go.  Ukie has always pretty much had this storm and said it wasn’t dead that will be interesting to see.

The Euro run tonight is a biggie for me.

 

Either way 12z tomorrow this is getting closer to nailed down.

our last storm 60 hours out and closer in trended easily NE by 150 miles. 
image.thumb.gif.597903ba67ff71ae75a988847c28b451.gif

 

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A "as of now"  Ch6/Accu Weather 11pm snow prediction map. A 1-3"/2-4" inch thing is fine. A refresher/snow on snow thing. It heads out by afternoon, shovel then grab beer and food for the Superbowl. Works for me...

As of now.jpg

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6 hours ago, RedSky said:

Hope it goes exactly as the NAM shows so the south&east crowd can have redemption. I'm like tired of snow I got too much. :oldman:

 

 

rc.jpg

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2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Euro came NW at 6z. The EPS has an i95 bullseye. 

12z Euro the biggest model run since (fill in the blank)

All 12z model runs are big today. Hoping we get some nw bumps..

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

NAM coming in more amped, stronger SS wave.

H5 tells the story

Agree

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