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February 7th Storm Threat Discussion/Obs


mappy
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1 minute ago, yoda said:

no... the idea is to make ONE call.

If you make 3, then you can be right all the time - that's the problem

 

CWG can say they were right if we get 4-6 because of their "boom"

CWG can say they were right if we get 2-4 because that was their "call"

CWG can say they were right if we get 1" because that was their "bust"

What you’re saying makes no sense. We can’t even figure out what’s happening less than 48 hours from now. But you want someone to act like they know? To what end?

The difference between them and you is they don’t care if they can ‘say they got it right’. They’re just trying to help people. You’re having a contest in your head that has no basis in reality. In fact it’s the kind of non nuanced competitiveness that people demand that only makes it seem like the technology of meteorology is better than it actually is, this perpetually pissing people off and making them feel like the whole system is less reliable. Because that’s what happens when people ‘stick to their guns’ to fulfill their sense of ego. 

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5 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Congrats to all in the Mid Atlantic on your latest Winter Storm Watch!!!!!!

You'll get good accumulating snows with this then a kick ass Arctic airmass!

This, is only the beginning...............................

 

Thanks for the positive Vibes @Jebman This thread has went down hill...

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8 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

What you’re saying makes no sense. We can’t even figure out what’s happening less than 48 hours from now. But you want someone to act like they know? To what end?

The difference between them and you is they don’t care if they can ‘say they got it right’. They’re just trying to help people. You’re having a contest in your head that has no basis in reality. In fact it’s the kind of non nuanced competitiveness that people demand that only makes it seem like the technology of meteorology is better than it actually is, this perpetually pissing people off and making them feel like the whole system is less reliable. Because that’s what happens when people ‘stick to their guns’ to fulfill their sense of ego. 

This is exactly right... Our objective to explain to people the range of possibilities.... while also giving them a sense of what we think is most likely, based on our experience/analysis. This is all in the spirit of helping them prepare and make decisions, manage expectations, understand the best/worst case, etc. Of course, we aim to get it right and we take pride when we nail a tough forecast... But ultimately, our goal is to serve our audience and make them understand the forecast and complexities so they'll be ready whatever happens.

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10 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Apologize for the size of the attachment. 
 

24 hr max precip - latest SREF.  Plops a 1.5-.75 max on Baltimore 

12 hr max is pretty wild too  .75+ for much of the area

What a battle between the much wetter mesos and drier ensembles  

8DD50BEE-B918-4BB5-86E4-19FCE5EA9EDF.jpeg

Probably the right side to be on to be honest. We’re basically within 24 hours at this point.Probably the right side to be on to be honest. We’re basically within 24 hours at this point.

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3 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Very solid. I like my area for this. Too far NW and I know how that story goes. 

Agree. Think the dc to Baltimore corridor and points in between are in for the goods here. Won’t be a foot, but it’ll be a great Sunday morning and afternoon. 

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Warnings and advisories issued. Watches remain up in areas of uncertainty it appears...

Warnings:

3-6 Nova/dc through central MD 

4-7 northern tier (Frederick Co on East - they included Baltimore city and all of Baltimore county)

5-10 for BR mountains

WWA’s

Winchester - Hagerstown for 2-4 

 Calvert/St. Mary's for 2-5

 

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LWX morning AFD for the event


Focus then turns to low pressure developing over the Deep South.
Model guidance has largely stabilized in terms of track, but
finer scale details remain modestly uncertain. This includes the
exact lower-level temperature profile and the placement of any
mesoscale bands. 1000-500 mb thickness packing, overlaid with 850
hPa temperatures and speed convergence around 700 hPa suggest
the best potential for heavier bands of snow will reside largely
up and down the US-29 corridor early to mid morning Sunday. This
is supported by a climatologically favorable surface low
pressure track from near Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, to just
offshore of Norfolk, Virginia. The potential for banded snow is
on the northwestern edge of the higher projected precipitation
amounts from raw model output, though that output could be
underdone beneath any such bands. Snow ratios will be higher
(with temperatures lower) given lift in the dendritic growth
zone within any bands (and due to dynamic cooling amidst heavier
precipitation rates).

It is in these areas that a Winter Storm Warning has been
posted (from the central Virginia foothills northeastward across
northern Virginia, central and northeastern Maryland including
the Washington DC and Baltimore MD metro areas). The Winter
Storm Warnings are flanked by Winter Weather Advisories to the
northwest and southeast where lesser amounts are anticipated
overall. Although temperatures across northwestern Virginia,
eastern West Virginia and portions of northern Maryland west of
the Catoctin Mountains will be colder, precipitation amounts are
expected to be less; any northwestward shift would result in
higher amounts, though. To the southeast over southern Maryland,
marginal temperatures cast doubt on the efficiency of snowfall
accumulation, though higher precipitation amounts and potential
bands could overcome this resulting in higher snowfall totals.
In the warning area, if steadier snow is not persistent or heavy
enough, temperatures will be a pinch warmer, resulting in
somewhat lower snowfall totals locally.

Precipitation should exit the area by or shortly after midday
despite the slight slowing trend in the latest guidance.

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