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MAG5035

Central PA - Winter 2020/2021 Part 2

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Well once again I spoke too soon.  The snow has restarted again and is falling heavily enough to accumulate again.  Skies have darkened and temp is 31.3 degrees.  All I need is 0.3" more!

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Well, it really is ending now with just a few stray flakes coming down.  But, the 15 minutes of additional accumulating somehow gave me 0.3" more snow to reach 2.8" for this storm.  This gives me a seasonal total of precisely 30.0"!  Yay!  (lol)  Temp up to 31.8 so slow melting will be starting soon.  Hard to believe that just 3 days ago today's event looked like it would be practically nothing.  Things don't always trend in the wrong direction leading up to an event.

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Maybe Friday night into Saturday. Front end thump and turn to rain right now on most models. But still time for more details on that one. 

This was winters last hurrah. Was a pleasure fellas.
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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Pregame wise this has been one of the least talked about borderline WSW (for some) snows I can remember here.  

At least we finally got an overperformer. GFS for long time leading up to this event it was mostly a rain event. Maybe we will get the same results end of the week. 

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Flurries now in ETown.  

Happy for this nice event.  Hoping we hang onto snowpack for this week.  Looks like Wednesday is our melt day to survive, then we should hold what we have into the weekend.  Beyond that.....don't really care.  I made sure to take advantage of every chance to play in my precious snow....and I dare say, I'm pooped.  Couple more times would be great though.

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Just now, paweather said:

At least we finally got an overperformer. GFS for long time leading up to this event it was mostly a rain event. Maybe we will get the same results end of the week. 

Today's 12Z GFS was still showing rain for today.  GFS has not had a good winter from my recollection.  RGEM was best on the depths today and, at least for the LSV, the Nam's call of sleet did fairly well. 

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5 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

Pregame wise this has been one of the least talked about borderline WSW (for some) snows I can remember here.  

Probably because it was so consistent and didn’t really have a chance of home run type totals or long duration.

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

Today's 12Z GFS was still showing rain for today.  GFS has not had a good winter from my recollection.  RGEM was best on the depths today and, at least for the LSV, the Nam's call of sleet did fairly well. 

I agree on the GFS it has not done that well at all. RGEM was good. 

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1 minute ago, paweather said:

At least we finally got an overperformer. GFS for long time leading up to this event it was mostly a rain event. Maybe we will get the same results end of the week. 

verbatim it looks similar w/ only challenge is that thermal profiles will likely not be as favorable "pre game" as you call it.....antecedent as mets call it.  Thats my worry, but its a ways away and as long as its not warm rain....I'm ok w/ whatevs. 

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Just now, Wmsptwx said:

Probably because it was so consistent and didn’t really have a chance of home run type totals or long duration.

So what you are saying it that everyone just wants to argue with the models vs. get snow :-).

 

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58 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Columbia today. Usually Conestoga.

Weird to see my sleepy little hometown mentioned on the internet.

I had my wife convinced that Conestoga was pronounced co-NEST-oga for a good month or two when we were dating. :lol:

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Just now, Bubbler86 said:

So what you are saying it that everyone just wants to argue with the models vs. get snow :-).

 

This was consistently modeled that something was coming, and when one looked solely at the GFS, it didnt scream snow....you had to do a little diggin to find the diamond in the rough. 

Peeps here where all chatty about "where did this come from -   TV said little to nothing".... I suggested its a warm bias playing into some hoping it doesn't happen...add that to mets being "constantly wrong" mentality...and that's why you didn't hear about it. 

I told her I knew about this since mid last week, and its been showing up for many many runs.  She was just shaking her head in disbelief.  I giggled both inward and outward.....she snarked at me (playfully). 

Snow lovers rejoice...we win again!!

 

    

 

 

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Just now, pasnownut said:

This was consistently modeled that something was coming, and when one looked solely at the GFS, it didnt scream snow....you had to do a little diggin to find the diamond in the rough. 

Peeps here where all chatty about "where did this come from -   TV said little to nothing".... I suggested its a warm bias playing into some hoping it doesn't happen...add that to mets being "constantly wrong" mentality...and that's why you didn't hear about it. 

I told her I knew about this since mid last week, and its been showing up for many many runs.  She was just shaking her head in disbelief.  I giggled both inward and outward.....she snarked at me (playfully). 

Snow lovers rejoice...we win again!!

 

    

 

 

I don't watch local news any longer but I can tell you in the past most relied on the GFS for their forecast. WGAL was pretty much the EURO/GFS combination. But many don't use the short range models at all or the CMC to flush out the pattern of what is going to happen. This is probably a perfect case for it. Luckily it is above 32 in most locations now at least around here. If this was a colder pattern the most impacted would have been the schools. But roads should be fine for the buses I would think unless along the high terrain. 

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1 minute ago, paweather said:

I don't watch local news any longer but I can tell you in the past most relied on the GFS for their forecast. WGAL was pretty much the EURO/GFS combination. But many don't use the short range models at all or the CMC to flush out the pattern of what is going to happen. This is probably a perfect case for it. Luckily it is above 32 in most locations now at least around here. If this was a colder pattern the most impacted would have been the schools. But roads should be fine for the buses I would think unless along the high terrain. 

Nor do I since bias is now the "in way to reporting"......with that said.....

  

I'm out.....

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2 minutes ago, paweather said:

I don't watch local news any longer but I can tell you in the past most relied on the GFS for their forecast. WGAL was pretty much the EURO/GFS combination. But many don't use the short range models at all or the CMC to flush out the pattern of what is going to happen. This is probably a perfect case for it. Luckily it is above 32 in most locations now at least around here. If this was a colder pattern the most impacted would have been the schools. But roads should be fine for the buses I would think unless along the high terrain. 

I like to watch the local news so I know what I am up against in talking to others outside the weather circle.  There are still people/families who gather around the TV when Joe Calhoun comes on as if it was the President speaking about an impending war. 

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