Albedoman Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 I have been saying this potential in my blog for a week now- St Patty's day time frame- Miller A/B hybrid potential exists and cannot be discounted as we undergo a major shift in the MJO and zonal flow pattern across the eastern US. I call this the rubber band effect from next weeks warm-up. Its coming a like a thief in the night. Have seen this pattern change many times in March- always brings a potential good snow storm. The GFS models the last two days are picking this up this unique pattern change and hinting at better snow chances. While I am not claiming another 1958 storm, the pattern is somewhat similiar in the latestl GFS runs. https://www.perspectaweather.com/blog/2018/3/15/120-pm-the-great-blizzard-of-march-18-21-1958one-of-the-worst-snowstorms-ever-in-pennsylvaniasome-similarities-with-next-weeks-expected-pattern 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 17 minutes ago, Albedoman said: I have been saying this potential in my blog for a week now- St Patty's day time frame- Miller A/B hybrid potential exists and cannot be discounted as we undergo a major shift in the MJO and zonal flow pattern across the eastern US. I call this the rubber band effect from next weeks warm-up. Its coming a like a thief in the night. Have seen this pattern change many times in March- always brings a potential good snow storm. The GFS models the last two days are picking this up this unique pattern change and hinting at better snow chances. While I am not claiming another 1958 storm, the pattern is somewhat similiar in the latestl GFS runs. https://www.perspectaweather.com/blog/2018/3/15/120-pm-the-great-blizzard-of-march-18-21-1958one-of-the-worst-snowstorms-ever-in-pennsylvaniasome-similarities-with-next-weeks-expected-pattern Great read! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 1 hour ago, canderson said: Going to be windy until tomorrow evening. I swear this region has to be the windiest place on the east coast that isn't on a mountain top. Highest hourly winds that I could find at MDT yesterday was 35 mph...not sure where to find peak gusts? Regardless, it sure seemed windier that that in the mid to late afternoon hours. You do know wind like no one else in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Most important GFS run of the year after 138hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 1 hour ago, paweather said: Agreed but if we get a zonal flow in the month of March then that says to me it is spring time and nothing else to track except T-Storms. As bubbles just said in another post, momma nature doesnt have to follow the meteo 101 rules of engagement in the weather war we wage in winter. If one looks at the 500 map I posted, and add to it the factor that the AO is now in a naturally retreating state, we need extra help from AO/NAO forcing to "get the boundary right" in that flow pattern in March. Scroll through the rest of the loop and verbatim....its curtains for winter 2021 IMO. Zonal/pac air as far as the eye can see. We need to see some semblance of blocking start to show quickly, as our normal window is closing. Thats all i'm pointing out, is that its no longer January (when its easier to snow). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 36 minutes ago, paweather said: Most important GFS run of the year after 138hr. Let me help you......don'l look....unless you like WAR and warmth... thats not even zonal....thats MORCH like weather. Mind you speaking verbatim as we are WAAYYYYY beyond range of consideration, but 12z Op was not one to hang hope onto IMO and beyond next weekend really is not in agreement w/ Ens guidance 6z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Just now, pasnownut said: Let me help you......don'l look....unless you like WAR and warmth... thats not even zonal....thats MORCH like weather. Mind you speaking verbatim as we are WAAYYYYY beyond range of consideration, but 12z Op was not one to hang hope onto IMO and beyond next weekend really is not in agreement w/ Ens guidance 6z 12z Yep. LOL. Just in 6 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 3 minutes ago, paweather said: Yep. LOL. Just in 6 hours! and if you loop op back a few runs, the word yoyo comes to mind. Not trying to debbie, but just being real as it really does take a lot more things to go right as we look to close the books on Winter 20-21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: and if you loop op back a few runs, the word yoyo comes to mind. Not trying to debbie, but just being real as it really does take a lot more things to go right as we look to close the books on Winter 20-21. Yeah I am out of here the 12th to the 21st so I was hoping my luck of being gone would serve this forum one more. Maybe it is waiting for me to come back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Mashed potato warning snow coming in next two and a half weeks. I’m sticking with prediction lol, and will wager being weenie tagged rest of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Mashed potato warning snow coming in next two and a half weeks. I’m sticking with prediction lol, and will wager being weenie tagged rest of the year. With Rain Gravy or no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 46 minutes ago, pasnownut said: As bubbles just said in another post, momma nature doesnt have to follow the meteo 101 rules of engagement in the weather war we wage in winter. If one looks at the 500 map I posted, and add to it the factor that the AO is now in a naturally retreating state, we need extra help from AO/NAO forcing to "get the boundary right" in that flow pattern in March. Scroll through the rest of the loop and verbatim....its curtains for winter 2021 IMO. Zonal/pac air as far as the eye can see. We need to see some semblance of blocking start to show quickly, as our normal window is closing. Thats all i'm pointing out, is that its no longer January (when its easier to snow). I haven't posted much of anything in regards to snow prospects for a couple of weeks now, and it's been intentional. I haven't seen a look yet that I can get really excited about. I think your analysis is spot on in every way. Not giving up yet...but not really getting any warm fuzzies for wintry precip, either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 8 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Mashed potato warning snow coming in next two and a half weeks. I’m sticking with prediction lol, and will wager being weenie tagged rest of the year. Love this attitude, no excuses play like a champion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: I haven't posted much of anything in regards to snow prospects for a couple of weeks now, and it's been intentional. I haven't seen a look yet that I can get really excited about. I think your analysis is spot on in every way. Not giving up yet...but not really getting any warm fuzzies for wintry precip, either. Just now, Mount Joy Snowman said: Love this attitude, no excuses play like a champion! You know we're living in truly messed up times when Williamsport is throwing out optimism in the face of adversity. I guess that's what a 50 something inch winter of snow will do for 'ya! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Well The Para is in. 13 days away but lock it in. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Upstate NY Special: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 HH Friday everyone have a good weekend, getting ready for the warmth next week, and then the snowstorm next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 Contemplating whether this was a good idea or not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Now that's true weather weenie optimism talk there . You get a blue ribbon. I'm not picky ...I'll take a 2 inch snowfall that melts by afternoon or a 20 inch powder kegger That is what I do best! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 1 minute ago, Bubbler86 said: Contemplating whether this was a good idea or not. Be safe! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 6 hours ago, pasnownut said: and if you loop op back a few runs, the word yoyo comes to mind. Not trying to debbie, but just being real as it really does take a lot more things to go right as we look to close the books on Winter 20-21. Here are a couple of things that could help the snow & cold train later next week and beyond. The MJO is rolling into Phase 1 towards phase 2, which are very good for a cold and stormy pattern. Also, the EPO looks to be heading negative which will help to get & maintain a cold pattern in the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 5, 2021 Share Posted March 5, 2021 6 hours ago, Itstrainingtime said: I haven't posted much of anything in regards to snow prospects for a couple of weeks now, and it's been intentional. I haven't seen a look yet that I can get really excited about. I think your analysis is spot on in every way. Not giving up yet...but not really getting any warm fuzzies for wintry precip, either. This look that the EPS has been advertising for a few days now could bring a cold pattern with Winter Storm chances for our region. There is ridging in Alaska which will feed the cold air pressing into the trough in the east. The ridge off of the east coast is forced well to the south and east, but nearby enough to prevent storms from being suppressed. The MJO and EPO that I just posted above support this developing wintry pattern. I think that we will be actively tracking a specific winter storm threat for the week of the 15th to the 20th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 6 hours ago, Wmsptwx said: Mashed potato warning snow coming in next two and a half weeks. I’m sticking with prediction lol, and will wager being weenie tagged rest of the year. The 18z Happy Hour GFS delivered your storm! This would be a blockbuster snowstorm! The MJO & EPO forecast support the chance. Only 300 hours to go....! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 Ok, alright, I won’t hold back the snow map....it is Happy Hour after all! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Ok, alright, I won’t hold back the snow map....it is Happy Hour after all! That must be 200" of digital snow for Leesburg, VA this year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 15 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said: That must be 200" of digital snow for Leesburg, VA this year. That’s right where I want the bullseye at this range! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimB Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 “At this range”... a D14 storm could probably have a bullseye over Des Moines or Charlotte or anywhere in between and have a fairly equal likelihood of bringing “the big one” to PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Ok, alright, I won’t hold back the snow map....it is Happy Hour after all! A 330 hr Kuchera snow map? What could possibly go wrong??? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 6, 2021 Share Posted March 6, 2021 It’ll snow the 3rd week of March. Whether it’ll be shovable or not I don’t know but I’ll snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now