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George BM

February Banter 2021

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9 minutes ago, H2O said:

As much as I’m trying to not get bummed by lack of snow seeing obs after obs of snow is...a bummer. 

I told myself to enjoy what falls so gotta stick to that. Could be a good idea to go do other stuff for a while. Good luck to those in the same boat!

Agreed. At least there's a new coating of white out there, especially on the trees. I half-expected this outcome but I'm not gonna deb over fresh frozen.

EDIT: The ++PL that just moved in is SO heavy, it's scouring snow accums off of trees and cars. WOW.

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1 minute ago, vastateofmind said:

Agreed. At least there's a new coating of white out there, especially on the trees. I half-expected this outcome but I'm not gonna deb over fresh frozen.

We needed it to come in hot and heavy, and that was a major fail. I just threw the Para out of bed.

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13 minutes ago, H2O said:

As much as I’m trying to not get bummed by lack of snow seeing obs after obs of snow is...a bummer. 
 

I told myself to enjoy what falls so gotta stick to that. Could be a good idea to go do other stuff for a while. Good luck to those in the same boat!

It's absolutely a bummer. That's why I wish I could have selective ignore during certain kinds of storms.

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Just now, nw baltimore wx said:

I"m going to be a crappy teacher today.

I have a class starting next week. I won't have as much time to track the next fail.

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Question for the red taggers - I'll tag a few in hopes that I can get an answer. @high risk @WxUSAF @MN Transplant - How does NWS account for the balloon launches drifting in the wind? In other words, say that in a very strong wind the balloon has drifted tens of miles by the time it samples a warm nose in today's case. Not sure if that's even realistic - but when that data is ingested into the models - does it treat the entire sounding as if it was directly above IAD/LWX - or does it account for the data at different levels being taken at potentially different geographic locations? 

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Made it downtown to the office. Almost no one on the slush covered roads, so that was nice. 26 and light mist downtown Balt. 

I am not putting this in obs because it is such a sad thing that it belongs in banter.

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40 minutes ago, mattie g said:

I wish I could selectively put some folks on ignore during these kinds of storms so I don't have to see their obs.

Yeah, and some were the same people who were all freaking out yesterday that the models looked like they were getting "too dry" for them, etc.  But whatever.  I don't mind too much seeing the photos and seeing some reports though.

I was surprised, honestly, to wake up to nothing but sleet.  I really thought we should get a few hours of good snow before flipping, but I don't think I've even seen a flake here thus far.  Sleet hasn't been overly heavy, but at times I can definitely hear it hitting the windows, and there's a decent coating.  I'm not even sure if we'll see a "sleet bomb" and a 2" layer of concrete.  Is what it is, I suppose.  I'm actually a bit worried about ice later on (freezing rain), so will see how that evolves.

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9 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Question for the red taggers - I'll tag a few in hopes that I can get an answer. @high risk @WxUSAF @MN Transplant - How does NWS account for the balloon launches drifting in the wind? In other words, say that in a very strong wind the balloon has drifted tens of miles by the time it samples a warm nose in today's case. Not sure if that's even realistic - but when that data is ingested into the models - does it treat the entire sounding as if it was directly above IAD/LWX - or does it account for the data at different levels being taken at potentially different geographic locations? 

      It absolutely accounts for balloon drift.    The GPS sensors in the sonde relay lat/lon info at each level, and the data is assimilated at the actual location.

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20 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I"m going to be a crappy teacher today.

You all disappoint me more then the crappy frozen ice pellets falling outside my window right now!  

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16 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I have a class starting next week. I won't have as much time to track the next fail.

I'm trying to finish up grades for current term and spending too much time in banter/obs for this storm. A student just asked for a grade status, which is a tad embarrassing. :whistle:

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2 minutes ago, high risk said:

      It absolutely accounts for balloon drift.    The GPS sensors in the sonde relay lat/lon info at each level, and the data is assimilated at the actual location.

 

12 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

Question for the red taggers - I'll tag a few in hopes that I can get an answer. @high risk @WxUSAF @MN Transplant - How does NWS account for the balloon launches drifting in the wind? In other words, say that in a very strong wind the balloon has drifted tens of miles by the time it samples a warm nose in today's case. Not sure if that's even realistic - but when that data is ingested into the models - does it treat the entire sounding as if it was directly above IAD/LWX - or does it account for the data at different levels being taken at potentially different geographic locations? 

@high risk is correct. Most offices utilize a Sippican GPS radiosonde that has 1 sec or less response with GPS coordinates updated to the nearest 0.0001 of a degree, so it's insanely accurate when properly calibrated. We go through a process prior to sending up the sonde to make sure it's within tolerance levels specified via the company involved. The Upper Air process is very very thorough to have the most accurate data possible for a specific geographic region.  

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I will admit that snow affects my mood - sorry if that makes me a bad person.

I will also note that many of the lectures on how snow should not affect mood come from people who live in areas where a butterfly farts and it snows. 

In any event, and to sum up, I wish it would snow more readily over this way. It used to. 

The snow is here now in downtown Balt. That is helping my mood. 

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11 minutes ago, high risk said:

      It absolutely accounts for balloon drift.    The GPS sensors in the sonde relay lat/lon info at each level, and the data is assimilated at the actual location.

I figured - but wanted to get the true answer! Thanks!

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

 

@high risk is correct. Most offices utilize a Sippican GPS radiosonde that has 1 sec or less response with GPS coordinates updated to the nearest 0.0001 of a degree, so it's insanely accurate when properly calibrated. We go through a process prior to sending up the sonde to make sure it's within tolerance levels specified via the company involved. The Upper Air process is very very thorough to have the most accurate data possible for a specific geographic region.  

The red taggers on here never disappoint. So in "theory" that warm nose being sampled on the LWX/IAD sonde could have actually been sampled a bit away from the launch site? I assume for the purposes of a day like today, it wouldn't have drifted TOO far - and would probably still be representative of the atmosphere above the site? 

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4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I really hate to do it, but you know it must be done. 

Wa5rBUq.png

You know it's bad when we're past the Ji level

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

I figured - but wanted to get the true answer! Thanks!

The red taggers on here never disappoint. So in "theory" that warm nose being sampled on the LWX/IAD sonde could have actually been sampled a bit away from the launch site? I assume for the purposes of a day like today, it wouldn't have drifted TOO far - and would probably still be representative of the atmosphere above the site? 

This is correct. Wx Balloons have specified mins for launch and we increase the amount of He in a balloon based on wx elements during the launch process. It takes less than 10 mins to reach between 850-700 mb, so even with a powerful LLJ, it won't be too far removed from the geographic launch point. 

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14 minutes ago, Kmlwx said:

I figured - but wanted to get the true answer! Thanks!

The red taggers on here never disappoint. So in "theory" that warm nose being sampled on the LWX/IAD sonde could have actually been sampled a bit away from the launch site? I assume for the purposes of a day like today, it wouldn't have drifted TOO far - and would probably still be representative of the atmosphere above the site? 

@MillvilleWx likely has a way better feel for this than I do, but the largest drift is going to be at the upper levels where the winds are stronger, and some drift has already taken place during the ascent.     The amount of drift by the time the sonde reaches 850 is much less.

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