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Central PA - Jan 31 to Feb 2 Winter Storm


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If we get that Miller A next weekend with another 12"+, that storm heralds in a significant arctic outbreak with the coldest air of the season.  Miller A's are so much less stressful and generally much more reliably modeled since there is no secondary low to worry about.  It's been a number of years since we last saw a true Miller A.

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4 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Hahahaha let’s just discount all of them! They’ve all struggled big time with this storm.

I read a comment in the ma that resonated with me.  If you look at it from the angle that the models predicted this convoluted transfer so far out then they did ok.  The finer details were not modeled so well.

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Just now, paweather said:

EURO..

Like others have said, it has been consistent for the last day or 2, but it shifted the bullseye around quite a bit this week (look at the post above that showed the Euro run sequence over the last several days). 
It was the first model to lock in to this event in general earlier this week and now it has locked back in today, but let’s wait until Tuesday morning to declare which model won.

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2 minutes ago, canderson said:

GFS is tucked with little NW precip field. Don’t get it. 
 

gfs_asnow_neus_12.png 

It will depend on where the CCB sets up tomorrow. The best bands could end up further east or west. 
If the GFS verified verbatim, I could live with 11 more inches in the Harrisburg area.

E5DE2EE6-09B1-411D-9A96-70A3E09E6C5B.png

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Just now, canderson said:

Also the MA thread has devolved into the Anchorman fight scene. 

Lmfao. They get soooo crazy. It snowed all day here, looked pretty so it’s a win regardless. Not like this day and age much classifies as a paralyzing storm, so enjoy what you get and drink in the snow while it’s falling.

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Back to the discussion at hand, namely the ongoing storm...

I still think the focus of the biggest totals will be that Lehigh Valley area of far eastern PA in northern half of NJ/NYC. And really the NAM still reflected that.. but the 0z run really hooked up with the major deform band reaching far back deep into C-PA. I'm a bit suspect of such a widespread area of a foot plus so far back like the 12k NAM has, but I do think the deform shield is probably being undermodelled on near term guidance like the HRRR. But remember.. HRRR goes out to 18 hours except for the 0,6,12,18z runs and we're still not really at the time when this deform from the deepening coastal gets flung back into PA at the end of the regular HRRR runs. And I'm more looking at other short term guidance for anything out past that anyways. The major features (850/700 lows) are well placed to go along with a very robust 850mb jet pointed into eastern PA so there's likely going to be a stripe of more significant totals.. just not sure on how widespread. 

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2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

No, the 18z Euro delivered a great amount of precip & snow for the coastal tomorrow into Tuesday am for most of us

 

DFA6C0BE-70C0-4429-8993-7D39DBD08103.png

BF788B70-DE41-4A4C-BED1-D3C118736279.png

Oh ok cause that one frame on the gif looked like it was coming up last showing like 1.3 guessing it was first and I was wrong thanks,

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