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Central PA - Jan 31 to Feb 2 Winter Storm


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Well here we go, I'm kicking this off now so we can have some of our last minute model guidance discussion organized together with an overall storm thread. Plus we're about 12 hrs from this getting into the region. Western PA folks are welcome too if they want to share their obs/discussion. 

Current Obs: Clearish, 32ºF. Snowboard deployed

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3 minutes ago, 2001kx said:

So should we expect closer to the Kuchera totals or ?

For my clients I am going with 15-1 ratios so forecasting 12-18" still even for the Western LSV back into Fulton country where models are underplaying a bit but 15-1 ratios with the qpf fields I am seeing support it.  Out your way definitely Kuch I would think.   I cannot even imagine forecasting 30" for the Eastern LSV.  Doubt any reputable place does that.    

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13 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Well here we go, I'm kicking this off now so we can have some of our last minute model guidance discussion organized together with an overall storm thread. Plus we're about 12 hrs from this getting into the region. Western PA folks are welcome too if they want to share their obs/discussion. 

Current Obs: Clearish, 32ºF. Snowboard deployed

We’ll let yinz know how this front end is looking 

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4 minutes ago, 2001kx said:

So should we expect closer to the Kuchera totals or ?

The early part of the storm where most of us spend likely the first several hours with a steady lighter snow probably won't have anything special in the ratio department... like an 11-12:1. Banding later in the event when the coastal starts cranking will be where we start seeing better ratios within heavier bands.. perhaps up to 15:1 or so. Euro generally had a 13-15:1 average going straight off of Kuchera amount divided by total QPF. Even the outlandish totals the RGEM have in the LSV are about a 12-13:1 average ratio with 15:1 out this way. 

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1 minute ago, MAG5035 said:

The early part of the storm where most of us spend likely the first several hours with a steady lighter snow probably won't have anything special in the ratio department... like an 11-12:1. Banding later in the event when the coastal starts cranking will be where we start seeing better ratios within heavier bands.. perhaps up to 15:1 or so. Euro generally had a 13-15:1 average going straight off of Kuchera amount divided by total QPF. Even the outlandish totals the RGEM have in the LSV are about a 12-13:1 average ratio with 15:1 out this way. 

I'd think were too far east to achieve anything more than 12-13:1 as its not that cold of a storm.  

per GFS heres warmest panel

gfs_T850_neus_9.png

then as coastal gets cranking we see this during max precip. and ccb's.  IMO thats great but not cold enough to really fluff it up. Still not a complaint in the world for me.

gfs_T850_neus_10.png

 

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Just now, pawatch said:

Twice this season Mag has opened a separate discussion for a substantial storm.

what a difference a year makes    :drunk:

Good Luck everyone!

when he's on board....you know the snow train is rollin....

Let's enjoy this gang.....looking like this is "one for us".

:beer:

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36 minutes ago, Bubbler86 said:

For my clients I am going with 15-1 ratios so forecasting 12-18" still even for the Western LSV back into Fulton country where models are underplaying a bit but 15-1 ratios with the qpf fields I am seeing support it.  Out your way definitely Kuch I would think.   I cannot even imagine forecasting 30" for the Eastern LSV.  Doubt any reputable place does that.    

 

23 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

The early part of the storm where most of us spend likely the first several hours with a steady lighter snow probably won't have anything special in the ratio department... like an 11-12:1. Banding later in the event when the coastal starts cranking will be where we start seeing better ratios within heavier bands.. perhaps up to 15:1 or so. Euro generally had a 13-15:1 average going straight off of Kuchera amount divided by total QPF. Even the outlandish totals the RGEM have in the LSV are about a 12-13:1 average ratio with 15:1 out this way. 

Thanks..

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Hey gang, I’m not going to have time to put the spreadsheet together as I talked about earlier in the week.   Just for fun we could guess the total snowfall and qpf for MDT and I’ll keep track of that.   Respond to this post with your guess.  Cut off for submission is midnight tonight. Qpf will be used for tie breaker if needed 

14.2”

1.18 qpf

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Just now, Cashtown_Coop said:

Hey gang, I’m not going to have time to put the spreadsheet together as I talked about earlier in the week.   Just for fun we could guess the total snowfall and qpf for MDT and I’ll keep track of that.   Respond to this post with your guess.  Cut off for submission is midnight tonight.

14.2”

1.18 qpf

17.8", 1.4 qpf. 

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Just now, Cashtown_Coop said:

Hey gang, I’m not going to have time to put the spreadsheet together as I talked about earlier in the week.   Just for fun we could guess the total snowfall and qpf for MDT and I’ll keep track of that.   Respond to this post with your guess.  Cut off for submission is midnight tonight.

14.2”

1.18 qpf

15.5"

1.28 qpf

 

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BGM-:lol:

Well, that escalated quickly. Miller-B systems feature one low
weakening - in this case in the mid Ohio Valley - and
transferring energy to a new coastal low. They are notorious
for being very difficult to forecast, and indeed there still
remains quite a bit of spread in the models. However, most of
them have trended significantly stronger with coastal low
development while also keeping it closer to shore as it moves up
the coast.
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Just now, Greensnow said:

BGM-:lol:

Well, that escalated quickly. Miller-B systems feature one low
weakening - in this case in the mid Ohio Valley - and
transferring energy to a new coastal low. They are notorious
for being very difficult to forecast, and indeed there still
remains quite a bit of spread in the models. However, most of
them have trended significantly stronger with coastal low
development while also keeping it closer to shore as it moves up
the coast.

Readin that to me is akin to my wife readin 50 shades of gray.

:lol:

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