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Ginx snewx

February the climo snow month

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NAM has no snow. I don't know...gonna be tough to pull much for you kev I think. Maybe an inch to start? It's srly flow ahead of it. No damming.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

NAM has no snow. I don't know...gonna be tough to pull much for you kev I think. Maybe an inch to start? It's srly flow ahead of it. No damming.

Yeah I think 1” here .. 3” for Hubbard Don.

 

Nam is outlier with that track over us 

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah I think 1” here .. 3” for Hubbard Don.

 

Nam is outlier with that track over us 

They all look the same. I could see white rain there too. Just saying, I wouldn't get hopes up. Not trying to be negative.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

They all look the same. I could see white rain there too. Just saying, I wouldn't get hopes up. Not trying to be negative.

Oh yeah I know . Especially with warm BL from daytime heating. Regardless.. the pack is all a dream by Thursday 

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12 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Will attempt a decently worded thread of Feb 26-March 1 at 11A.  Definitely interesting potential. 

March 4-6 has interest but nothing on this for a few days (NAEFS). 

Both above may be only interior nw of I95 but winter is not done. Wetter snows (rain coasts?) with seasonable temps Monday the 22nd through the first week of March with a somewhat unstable 500 mb pattern developing. 

 

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7 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

 

Yeah the 26-27 doesn't look good at all right now. The March 1 thing sort of spills into the 3rd.....it's just that the 3rd looked better verbatim, but I suppose at any point there might be  something that moves through. Could be wet too.

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I need 5.5” to get to 60” which is about my avg. 58-60”

my avg is a bit more, it's gonna take a few nickel and dime events to get there, but my avg since I moved here and started my own obs is around 78, that includes three sub 50" years, but the average I came up with from the closest obs station to me is more like 85, doubt that gets hit but I'd be ok with 60, especially after the Jan we had.

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah the 26-27 doesn't look good at all right now. The March 1 thing sort of spills into the 3rd.....it's just that the 3rd looked better verbatim, but I suppose at any point there might be  something that moves through. Could be wet too.

Did the para have the 26th still?

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14 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yes .. I would sign up for Morch 2012 anyday all day and six ways to Sunday . That was awesome. Better than snow that melts as it’s falling 

Morch 2012 was good because it made it easy to move on from the miserable non-winter that preceded it. But normally there's no way in hell that I'd want 80 degrees from March 1 onwards. For me that can wait until May or June.

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looking at last night’s and this morning’s stuff. I’m thinking this will be the apex down here after this last refresher as far as pack sustainability and the deep winter look. Sure, we might have some more chances, but it will be a step down process from here. JMO...

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

We'll have to see if we can sneak something maybe 3/3ish? 

Yea 3rd through the 5th peaks me interest

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

We'll have to see if we can sneak something maybe 3/3ish? 

Quite possible and then thats it

20210220_092239.jpg

20210220_092255.jpg

20210220_092305.jpg

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Oh yeah I know . Especially with warm BL from daytime heating. Regardless.. the pack is all a dream by Thursday 

Looking at soundings you are gonna thump paste even at 34. 6z Euro 

download (4).png

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2 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Oh yeah I know . Especially with warm BL from daytime heating. Regardless.. the pack is all a dream by Thursday 

How warm are we talking this week?

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1 minute ago, Cold Miser said:

How warm are we talking this week?

Lol he's melting 10 to 12 inches of glacier with 1 day in the 40s with dews in the 20s. Geezuz.  Look for maybe some windex tonight as lapse rates look pretty good with that SW swinging thru

  • Haha 2

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Twitter-like version: Nothing's changed. Repeating theme past several days continued across the suite of modeling tech overnight.  GEF's teleconnector outlook vs operational trend are in conflict.  This could be masking a warm March "feel"

Longer version:   In fact, the gap grows between the GEFs and the operational GFS.  GEFs telecon portrait of March 2012's cousin walking down our street looking for the hemispheric address...  Whereas the GFS?  ...it wants a sub 540 stasis look forever - so bad that it not only cannot reflect the GEFs, but seems to even compensate seasonal change/ natural variance as even vestigial in the dailies.  Relentlessly asynchronous ..  

It's important because the erstwhile advertising for plausible March reversal and possible more sustained warmth in spring, comparing transition seasons in recent years .. depends on the operational GFS not being right. Lol - ...I mean, I'm on the up confidence side that it won't - but in the interest of scientific objectivity ... shit if I know for sure.

The operational GFS has a real problem with N/ Stream domination. That may not lend to its being able to pick up on that which it's weighted ensemble membership is presently seeing. And it is concerted in the latter sense, too; the curves don't show a lot of "mop ending" - they agree on a +AO that's soaring now to ~ +2 - so ...doubling down.  Yet the 00z operational still seems disconnected and suppressing the westerlies down beneath 38 N.   

One can identify it on the chart(s). Heights on the polar side of the westerlies, they are routinely and dependably some 4 to at times ablating down to 12 dm of heights colder than either verification, or ...any other guidance - usually by D6 and onward.  By D10 and beyond, those error depths are quite noticeable, at times bored down to 468 dm holes as far S as southern JB during DJF climo.   That strains Terrain likeliness to put it drool. 468 ...c'mon man, is that even found in the nucleus of Antarctica ... seems a bit excessive. 

And, well, ..never seen any other guidance or verification ultimately wend their way down to the exotic SPV nadirs as the operational GFS.  ... sometimes it's hard not to muse that they are faking it?  Like the model is just the blend of the ensembles, then just before dissemination ...they souped it up with some sort of turbo coefficients "correcting" it competitive with foreign markets..  But now they are stuck! They can't pull out because if they do the whole thing is like a spring loaded error bomb ...Lol..   'Magine that?    "Scandal at NCEP:  Details at 6 - "

Conceptual logic:  It connotes a reason why the GFS carries on with a progressive headache tendency, particularly smearing its middle range deeper into extended. If the model is over amplified with cold heights... it has to concomitantly steepen integrating gradient outside those cold wells -- > velocity surplus is generated ... Ultimately, that stretches/ stresses the R-wave positions into the x-coordinate ( E ).  Pretty fascinating actually -

Summary:   the GFS may be the last model to sniff out a warm anything in spring. It'll fight seasonal change as a hemispheric forcing.  It'll fight the intra-seasonal signal ..as evinced at times like now, when the GEFs derivatives have warm balm looks.. it natively dampens those signals because the cold is keeping the westerlies S. 

I just have used the GEFs mean/teleconnectors HUGELY successfully, too often in the past years ...including this one, in make extended "tendency" call - sometimes actually parlaying usefully in a daily distinction.  This served the October, December and January events very well... Pure GEFs... not EPS.   Which is not to say the EPS doesn't work. I just don't pay for and don't engage beyond the coarse free-sites, with that ensemble package .. to really know it's quirks and usages.   I do have a sense, however, that it follows its operational model closer.  Anyway, ...

There is no part of:

+AO/+NAO/-PNA

La Nina climo

HC expansion and subsequent hemispheric forcing hypothesis noted in present research

The fact that spring is ultimately actually coming as a Celestial mechanics imperative ( lol...)

.... that ultimately suggests the GFS interminable suppression of the 540 dm in a blazer jet from west of Frisco to S of NS ...embedding nickle dimes forever, will be very successful.      

 

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3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

3” would be a win up here.  Thanks for posting the map

This is definitely more for you guys and higher spots of SNE.

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Meh... I guess if folks are scraping to pad seasonal with any way they can ... it's worth following?

But otherwise, that's nothing more than an aggressive baroclinic knot with subtending gradient whisking by at ludicrous speed. I can visualize rad returns moving from Alb to off the coast in 3 hours and it's over...having snowed but because the snow is like 7:1 showery in nature, it only wets the pavement and yard snow depths are actually less at the end of the day for having actually snowed runway oatmeal over a soft pack leading.  ...although I have 4" of goose feathers over concrete ...

That whole thing is in the process of its deep later mechanics being stretched.. its destiny to fall victim to the same aspect suffered all season: the longitudes between Chicago and Cape Cod, the flow gets pulled along the x-coordinate ...that "synergistic" tendency is damping everything that tries to survive that wave-space gauntlet through that domain -

 

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