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Chicago Storm

Jan 24-26th Something Potential

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Just now, mimillman said:

Glad to see you on board 

I mean there is always a chance the GFS could be right and the northern stream suppresses everything, but I am hedging by bet that it is a bit too overzealous.

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19 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Yeah this has the traditional nina look to it, Ohio gets the rain.

If I recall correctly, the Northwest portion of Ohio(yes, my backyard) typically stays snow in these set-ups.  At least during La Nina.  

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Just now, Frog Town said:

If I recall correctly, the Northwest portion of Ohio(yes, my backyard) typically stays snow in these set-ups.  At least during La Nina.  

Yeah you and IWX's CWA can win on these as well, see GHD or 99 blizzard.

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Just now, Stebo said:

Yeah you and IWX's CWA can win on these as well, see GHD or 99 blizzard.

That's right, thank you for remembering and responding.  It was a very tight gradient as I recall.  

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24 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Yeah this has the traditional nina look to it, Ohio gets the rain.

Yeah that's how it goes. We can get lucky from time to time and stay all snow but we're typically limited to front end thumps or backside snow.

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20 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I mean there is always a chance the GFS could be right and the northern stream suppresses everything, but I am hedging by bet that it is a bit too overzealous.

There’s always a chance, but we’re in the business of making an educated guess based on past performance and probability!

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Just now, mimillman said:

There’s always a chance, but we’re in the business of making an educated guess based on past performance and probability!

In that case I think we have no clue :lmao:

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25 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I mean there is always a chance the GFS could be right and the northern stream suppresses everything, but I am hedging by bet that it is a bit too overzealous.

Although they never made it within 168 hours, the last 2 or 3 signals ended up getting suppressed way south. I think that's my only glimmer of hope at this point.

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4 minutes ago, Stebo said:

In that case I think we have no clue :lmao:

Touché.

Obviously in this dog of a winter there will be no perfect solution, but I think we get closest we can in this set up

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25 minutes ago, StormfanaticInd said:

Another epic letdown in a long series of epic letdowns in the works. We all know how this ends :facepalm:

Suppress it to the gulf!

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For those keeping early score, the 0z NAM is very GFS-like.

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0z GFS caving significantly, however still has work to be done.

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2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

0z GFS caving significantly.


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Positive trends at H5 with the northern vort further north.

D896A0B9-3703-4730-A7C3-9E907288E996.thumb.gif.887c2ec1d2981f40c1df53b3f26461da.gif

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0z GEM went the opposite direction, and looks similar to 0z GFS.


.

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0z GEM went the opposite direction, and looks similar to 0z GFS.


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Big difference is that it now ejects out most of the 1st wave, which leads to other slight changes.

Looks like this is what the potential will hinge on, and we should know how that’ll end up by tomorrow night.


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6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


Big difference is that it now ejects out most of the 1st wave, which leads to other slight changes.

Looks like this is what the potential will hinge on, and we should know how that’ll end up by tomorrow night.

The Canadian trough digs a fair amount more into the upper midwest this run, which will likely kill the second wave for the I-80 corridor.

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The Canadian trough digs a fair amount more into the upper midwest this run, which will likely kill the second wave for the I-80 corridor.

It does, which is partially due to the 1st wave ejecting out and interacting with the northern wave.


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If this fails, Joe is banned from starting storm threads.

giphy.gif


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Better start doing a snow dance.

i had a good run in winter 13-14’.


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Just now, Chicago Storm said:


i had a good run in winter 13-14’.


.

Centuries ago, plus anyone could have fallen down and produced 3 snowstorms that winter

 

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2 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Well that lasted one model cycle. A 1-3" still on the table though. 

 

Du calme, at least another 24-48 hours to go 

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0z GEFS range from a suppressed non-event, to a congrats OMA-LSE.

Probably the best they’ve looked yet.


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