• Member Statistics

    16,626
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    donyewest
    Newest Member
    donyewest
    Joined
WinterWxLuvr

Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

Recommended Posts

24 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Loooooonggggg range RGEM has a really nice thump D.C. north.

For posterity!

1613023200-dele4EhE9GY.png

I approve this message. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm trying really hard to not get too excited. Love the damn setup. It's the next best thing to a miller A and far better than any miller b, clipper, or anything else. Breadth of the shield is the main feature keeping me grounded. Wobbles aren't done and the latitude spread on the N and S side is narrow af in the big picture. Our biggest fear with stuff like this is surface and midlvl temps. We're slowly winning that. Need to win qpf max next :tomato:

Definitely looks active. I’m still a bit worried the boundary ends up too close to us for all snow, but we’ll see. With the storms we’ve had so far this winter, there hasn’t been the “inevitable north trend in the last 24-48 hours” we typically assume. Not sure if that’s random chance or models getting better or something else. I’d still like to leave room for a bump north at the end though, especially in this situation. Snow hasn’t been easy this winter, so I’m trying to stay patient...

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Haven’t read anything since page 45, so if it’s been answered I apologize...but I was in college in Lewisburg, PA that year and we got crushed. No idea the totals, but I recall there being 6-12” storms time after time after time.

Was definitely better north of the mason dixon. We did have the March 94 storm out here. It was like 20 inches. But a ton of ice in Feb I think. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Eps 850s  run to run change is very significant. 

 

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-ma-t850_c_dprog-3131200.png

That leads me to believe it’s nothing but a fresh powder dump. :snowing:

  • Weenie 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Sheesh, the GEFS is icy as hell for Virginia. Really hoping its wrong. 
Snow mean is pretty sweet too for Wed-Fri. Crossing my fingers for a colder solution.
1613142000-7TgAyS1JYWs.png&key=0cb4d943bb71367ba764677af0587d476686f8d8672d60007b5ff3e5a19e2623

They may need to prepare for a crippling ice storm.


.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Superstorm said:


They may need to prepare for a crippling ice storm.
.

Yeah... can't think of much more miserable than a crippling ice storm knocking out the power during a pandemic. Really hoping for snow. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I'm kind of excited for the next 10 - 14 days. We could have a sneaky big event in here that catches everyone off guard.

  • Like 9

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

I'm kind of excited for the next 10 - 14 days. We could have a sneaky big event in here that catches everyone off guard.

Those are the best and most memorable! :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Definitely looks active. I’m still a bit worried the boundary ends up too close to us for all snow, but we’ll see. With the storms we’ve had so far this winter, there hasn’t been the “inevitable north trend in the last 24-48 hours” we typically assume. Not sure if that’s random chance or models getting better or something else. I’d still like to leave room for a bump north at the end though, especially in this situation. Snow hasn’t been easy this winter, so I’m trying to stay patient...

I'm expecting mix. Practically every time our area is bisected by mix, my yard mixes too. 850s will rip out of the sw for a time while precipitating until flow flips n w/slp to our east. 850 line isnt down by RIC. I usually mix with the midlevel look I'm seeing. Havent looked at why the euro is a good but colder. I'll just blindly hug that for now

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Sheesh, the GEFS is icy as hell for Virginia. Really hoping its wrong. 

Snow mean is pretty sweet too for Wed-Fri. Crossing my fingers for a colder solution.

1613142000-7TgAyS1JYWs.png

We don't need a repeat of the Nov 2018 ice storm over here in Waynesboro , Augusta area.... booms cracks and bangs were constant that night along with pretty light flashes lighting up the sky........

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I have never experienced a proper ice storm storm or glacier storm that dumps snow then ice without it turning to rain. I have also never been in a low temp ice event and it would be the only way to get a snow day now so... Just kidding though, I would love a snow day and a glacier but I would rather have a foot of snow. If this storm does end up giving us a majority snow event that would be crazy, 3-4(if Sunday happens) moderate to heavy events in 2 weeks. With the pattern the rest of Feb looks good and we seem to have cold air in place for once so I think this thread will be up to seasonal average and maybe even more if we get lucky. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, Jrlg1181 said:

We don't need a repeat of the Nov 18 ice storm over here in Waynesboro , Augusta area.... booms cracks and bangs were constant that night along with pretty light flashes lighting up the sky........

I could tell an ice storm had probably happened even though I didn’t know for sure, only because the trees were in pretty bad shape. It looked pretty crazy.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm trying really hard to not get too excited. Love the damn setup. It's the next best thing to a miller A and far better than any miller b, clipper, or anything else. Breadth of the shield is the main feature keeping me grounded. Wobbles aren't done and the latitude spread on the N and S side is narrow af in the big picture. Our biggest fear with stuff like this is surface and midlvl temps. We're slowly winning that. Need to win qpf max next :tomato:

These are the types you guys do really well with. I’m almost positive I’ll be sitting jealous in Philly looking south at the radar

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
48 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm expecting mix. Practically every time our area is bisected by mix, my yard mixes too. 850s will rip out of the sw for a time while precipitating until flow flips n w/slp to our east. 850 line isnt down by RIC. I usually mix with the midlevel look I'm seeing. Havent looked at why the euro is a good but colder. I'll just blindly hug that for now

Here's the thing...

Unless someone tells you to back away and not dissect it, you're going to analyze the living F out of why the Euro is colder through all levels. So...let me be the one to tell you to back the F away and allow the rest of us to incorrectly read each suite between now and Tuesday.

:lol:

  • Haha 3

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

Are you 21 years old  ?

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

60207effc87f5.png

 

  • Like 3
  • Haha 3
  • Weenie 8

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Will have to see how this tracks.  Could be very memorable ice event for parts of central Virginia and the southern Shenandoah valley.  zr with temps in the 20s is bad news.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, thunderman said:

Will have to see how this tracks.  Could be very memorable ice event for parts of central Virginia and the southern Shenandoah valley.  zr with temps in the 20s is bad news.

If that means snow for central MD then count me in LOL. 

  • Like 2
  • Haha 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:


Slightly further south. Snow into CHO at 72.

Let’s keep it that way. I had enough power flickers and limbs falling from the ice event earlier this season!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.