Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
 Share

Recommended Posts

8 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said:

Sounds like a kiss of death for any type of biggie. But I guess that’s what happens when relying on an antecedent airmass. 

It can be a sizeable event without being wound up. It's all about falling on the right side of the boundary and under the qpf bullseye. Precip totals can easily be .5 - 1" or even more. It's a legit moisture feed.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

I'm deleting my radar app this week. Too stressful

6eddb53c793411817bd442416a33aefa.jpg

Rgem looks like its setting up a nice round 2 at the end. If we were 120 hours out and saw all the models showing what they're showing now, not a single person here would feel good about it at all. Seeing 0z hold or improve is pretty sweet. Only 72 hours out now. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Rgem looks like its setting up a nice round 2 at the end. If we were 120 hours out and saw all the models showing what they're showing now, not a single person here would feel good about it at all. Seeing 0z hold or improve is pretty sweet. Only 72 hours out now. 
72 hours this winter has seemed like 120 hours. Even yesterday 6 hours out there was model chaos lol
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

72 hours this winter has seemed like 120 hours. Even yesterday 6 hours out there was model chaos lol

This is true. No doubt. This time is actually different (famous last words). The moisture plume is happening. Basically a 100% chance. No waiting for cyclogenesis or any other complicated synoptic progression.

It's just relatively warm moist air, weak impulse running the southern stream from the desert sw, and a blocked mass of cold to our north. Almost entirely isentropic upglide/overrunning precip until the end when weak slp forms and books east. The tricky part is the unavoidable fact that the qpf stripe will be divided between all ptypes. Keep rooting for confluence and suppression to not get pushed around like the chiefs o line all night tonight. 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS loves to **** with us.  It's irritating when all of the other models are on board.

I'm not sure we'll get full agreement on being on the good side for bit. One or more models will likely irritate everyone every 6 hours. Should be a blast in here as time ticks and nerves twitch. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

50 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It can be a sizeable event without being wound up. It's all about falling on the right side of the boundary and under the qpf bullseye. Precip totals can easily be .5 - 1" or even more. It's a legit moisture feed.

Yeah for sure. We’ve threaded the needle before, it can happen again. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Not sure I’d call it a shift southward but precip is better defined on the southern edge around 78. Snowing everywhere unless you’re south of FDK.

 

Goods pretty clearly shifted south a bit at 81

FDK would be in MD... how is snowing everywhere then lol

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Not sure I’d call it a shift southward but precip is better defined on the southern edge around 78. Snowing everywhere unless you’re south of FDK.

 

Goods pretty clearly shifted south a bit at 81

Pretty sure you mean Frederickburg, VA, because it's definitely snowing south of FDK down through DC

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...